Stratos

Nice links. There's got to be some kind of formula model that teams use to try to get a ballpark prediction of minors to MLB conversion.

Interesting is that a lot of the best prospects and young players are getting extended at early ages now so getting stars in their prime in FA is eventually going to be much harder. This will change the way many teams will build teams. Good prospects probably become even more valuable.

Haven't thought of the name Felix Pie in a long time. Some serious red flags on the offensive side for PCA. But I guess we'll see.

Wonder what the plan B would be to spend the rest of that money this year if they can't get any of the Boras 4. Some other bat I'd imagine, maybe a reliever upgrade. Could swing a trade. Tauchman, Canario, Morel, and PCA are the options in CF.

He did it with Counsell.

Red Sox are still bouncing around too.

They had problems underperforming offensively throughout last season and have lost Chapman to FA. The offense is almost the same as of now besides the Chapnan/Turner swap.

I think they probably have their preference for best fits but are likely trying to remain as flexible as they always do. They're a very opportunistic FO and will probably take the deal here that makes the team better compared to the contract cost. Not overspending on one of these guys means they can use that savings to afford an upgrade at another position, like on a pen arm or another bat upgrade etc. and do this every year of the contract. They shouldn't feel pigeonholed. If they sign one of the Boras SP they can always trade someone like Taillon at a later time if they want to make room for one of the young SPs, or trade one of those young SPs like one of Wicks/Brown/Assad etc in a package for an upgrade elsewhere. If they don't sign one of the Boras 4 they could spend that money on a reliever and/or another bat or swing a trade.

Madrigal isn't your ideal offensive player especially with Nico also lacking power, but end of the day its the total value they each bring to the team. If Madrigal is putting up great defense and able to play at a 2 WAR pace or whatnot while in the lineup then that's ultimately what matters and it doesn't matter how he does it. Scoring runs isn't any more important than run prevention. I'd take 3 Nicos at 2B/SS/3B any day just like I'd take 3 Juan Sotos in the OF.

Sounds like both the Cubs FO and scouts are quite a bit more confident in Busch's hitting abilities to transfer better at the MLB level compared to Mervis. From Sahadev Sharma: https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2024/01/25/the-cubs-clearly-intend-for-michael-busch-to-be-the-first-baseman-to-open-the-season/ This would explain the comments from Hoyer/Hawkins since the Busch trade and their confidence of him over Mervis. They've said he's going to be on the OD roster, and envision him as a player in the lineup over his 6 years of control from this Hawkins interview I listen to: https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2024/02/05/carter-hawkins-speaks-working-the-phones-being-opportunistic-rotation-buschs-role-free-agents-more/ They also like Busch's glove at 1B from these comments from the first article above: Looks like Mervis is slated as either a backup depth for Busch, a potential DH option, future trade bait, or Mervis end up hitting well and playing 1B better than Busch, moving Busch to DH. Tons of options available, especially if Bellinger is signed and PCA takes over CF in the future.

80 projected wins. Go Cubs

Yeah. Our pitching was average last year and theirs was terrible. Neither team is much improved. Cards swapping Montgomery for Gray is a modest improvement but not enough. They're projecting we score 50 fewer runs and give up 50 more than last year. That's a bit odd.

I don't think the Cubs guarantee everyday AB's to rookies throughout a whole season. They'll let him have a shot though. Mervis and Morel are options if he struggles as well as Wisdom, and Bellinger also if signed. BJ Murray and McGeary likely start the year in Iowa too. Hawkins has already recently eluded that Busch will probably be platooned vs LHP initially with the hope he could eventually have an everyday role: https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2024/02/05/carter-hawkins-speaks-working-the-phones-being-opportunistic-rotation-buschs-role-free-agents-more/

Ideally he's a 4th OF. He's 33 so something to keep in mind. The good thing is that his best offensive skill is swing decisions and working walks, which doesn't really age or slump. Projections on him are around 97 wRC+ which seems right and matches his career #s. He's a decent OF with good hands and instincts and will catch anything he can get to., just not a ton of speed. He probably won't embarrass himself on either side of the ball.

Ok. I just think that doesn't make any Altuve is a 5-6 WAR player, but also older, hard to compare them.

I think they'll keep Canario as long as he fills a role they need, including as bench/depth/DH. You're right that longterm he's blocked and will likely be traded. If someone else they like better like Caissie looks to be able to fill his role then they'll probably trade Canario. Similar to what they did with Velazquez and Soler.

In another post yes I said I wanted them to trade some guys for good mlb players with control. Other prospects they can play. There's a lot they can do. I've said before that the only 2 ways this team can get better is by increasing surplus or increasing the total payroll.

Canario is an asset on this team in 2024 though. He can be in the mix at DH, he's a solid backup for Happ and Suzuki in case of injury, and a general bench option, similar to Velazquez or what Soler was. I don't think Velazquez hurt his trade value getting a couple hundred PA's in the MLB. His tools didn't change and I don't think teams are going to make significant sways in judgement on a young player based on a couple hundred PA's. There can be some potential reduction in value but I think actually using a player in a depth role has value as well, and the Cubs have the potential to discover additional surprise value from some players by playing them, like what happened with Morel and Steele. Over the last 6 months, the Cubs have traded Hertz, Made, Velazquez, and Ferris for MLB or MLB-ready assets and more will happen. I don't think they're going to let a whole bunch of their prospects rot on a vine.

Happ is a good asset on a good contract and young enough to be unlikely to depreciate in value much over the course of the contract. Like Darvish, he can likely be traded for prospects or whomever even with a NTC. I don't see much downside or risk compared to any FA they may have signed instead with that money.

They can make a trade before OD and probably will. But depending on the 40-man situation they can also wait and use these guys as depth pieces who can help them this year. They have at least one good prospect in AAA or AA at every position on the diamond. They probably also want to have expendable prospects to deal at the trade deadline to fill MLB holes. But they will have to start making some trades eventually. If guys in AA like Shaw, Alcantara, Triantos etc are ready for a promotion to AAA mid-season then there's likely going to be a roster crunch in Iowa and playing time issues. The Cubs are in a great situation. Sign Bellinger and someone like Happ or Suzuki can be dealt over the next couple of seasons to acquire an upgrade elsewhere or to reload the farm. If Caissie or Alcantara eventually come up and hit well then potentially both Happ/Suzuki could be traded. Nico may also be traded near the end of his extension. We're starting to have a lot of assets now. I'd like to see them eventually use some of it to acquire some controllable pre-FA all-star quality players from smaller market teams. I'd much rather have those kinds of assets in their primes that can be later flipped or extended than signing these longterm FA mega-deals and watching those assets age & depreciate into someone worthless.

They could just agree to pay for some of the contract like Rockies and Arenado.

Well they save 15m on Burnes, 11m on Woodruff, and would save 12m on Adames. That's 38m, and Hoskins costs 17m AAV. They have 21m to spend on someone. Might not be 1 of the Boras 4 but they might still spend most of that.

Pirates signed Aroldis Chapman.

Pirates signed Aroldis Chapman.

Could make Brewers more of a Chapman suitor, or Montgomery etc. They saved money dealing Burnes. They saved money dumping Woodruff and then signed Hoskins.