Rcal10

Probably true. But I also think some people suggest trading them away as if they have no value. I think a lot of people look at BBTV to see values on guys and try putting trades together that way. It is not a perfect valuation, and sometimes it may appear way off, but it is a decent guide. Using the haul you suggested for Valdez would have the Cubs paying way over the value per BBTV.

I don’t know what Houston would take. But the Cubs should not give up anywhere near that amount. And where are you reading that Valdez is available and the Cubs are competing with Baltimore and Boston? Not doubting you, just didn’t see that.

It’s a huge overpay. PCA has more trade value on his own.

I like the move too. But not enough to just give them an extra 2 top 100 prospects. Maybe add a low level pitching prospect and Murray. And even that is an overpay, but one I would be ok with. Love the idea of one stop shopping filling left handed bat, 1st base. A starting pitcher a and a closer.

Cubs aren’t overloaded in outfield minor league talent if they trade away PCA. Alcantara and Canario in one deal. They should be able to get those guys from the Guardians without dealing Alcantara for sure. And probably Brown too. Based on BBTV, PCA, Wesneski, and Canario is pretty much an even value. If you want to add a lower end prospect, fine. But not Alcantara AND Brown.

That is a huge overpay by the Cubs.

Especially for 7 years. I can see something like $156/6 years or $135/5. I wouldn’t want the Cubs to do that, but I think someone will.

I am happy to hear BBTV views that deal as bad as I do.

5 years of Morel for 1 year of Alonso. I don’t think I would. And I think a lot of people would be bitching about that deal in a few years.

I would rather use the prospects for Bieber and Naylor and keep Morel. Then they don’t have to spend on Hoskins. I like the idea of Polanco as well. But I don’t see them giving out a $100M+ deal to any of those pitchers. And especially so if they are also signing Hoskins.

I agree with you on this. But I am never sure if we, as fans, are the best judge of what is needed to make a trade. I mentioned the other day there was a question on mlb trade rumor, other chat. It was who says no to Brown, Morel and someone else on the Cubs for Alonso. The guy said the Mets say no. I find that hard to believe as well. I wouldn’t like it straight for Morel, let alone adding Brown and another piece. Yet, a guy with no Cubs connection suggested that wasn’t enough. It’s things like that and this Guardian stuff that make me wonder if we are just not valuing the Cubs players like the rest of baseball is. And if the rest of baseball is asking for that much back in trades I understand why our FO isn’t getting much done so far.

The only one I would even consider is just for Bieber. Not a fan of losing Alcántara Brown, and Canario for one year of Bieber and Naylor. And I definitely don’t like losing Morel and Alcantara for Bieber in 24’ plus a closer. Cubs need offense. Trading Morel doesn’t help their offense. In fact, it gives them another hole to fill. If this is truly the cost to make a deal with the Fuardians, I understand why Jed doesn’t make big deals.

Didn’t Glasnow sign a contract that is giving him around $26M to $27M a year. $135M total. Snell could want 7/$210, doesn’t mean he gets it. But he can make a case for a similar salary as Glasnow. I think Montgomery and Imanaga will also be in the $22M-$25M annual range as well. And all around 5 or 6 years. Which is why I don’t think any of them will be on the Cubs.

And has that been the only example I used I would agree with you. However I gave way more examples to explain why I thought what I thought. And I did so far less critical than some other posters. I also feel telling someone to take a horsefeathers breather is exactly suggesting they should stop posting. Maybe I overreacted. Or maybe you went to far. Either way, I am done with this. I will continue to post my thoughts and you can agree or disagree. Frankly I couldn’t care less.

So in an attempt to explain my reasoning on why I am not expecting much this off season without sounding like I am freaking out, here it goes. First, listening to Hawkins and Hoyer it honestly sounds like they really like the minor league system. I am not sure they will want to move what is needed in a trade to bring back real talent. Next, based on what has been reported the Cubs are looking for bargains, getting guys who have their market drop. It also appears they don’t want to block prospects, so that FA would probably only be someone they would sign for 3 years. To me, there are only 3 higher end free agents if you include Hoskins. And I don’t think Bellinger or Chapman accept a 3 or 4 year deal. I also don’t know if they would even want Chapman for 4 years. So maybe Hoskins. But it has to be a Jed’s price. So if anyone else wants him over Jed’s comfort level he goes elsewhere. After those guys there really isn’t much else. JD Martinez for a year, but then does Morel play 3rd? As for pitchers, I don’t see them going 6 years at $22-$25M for guys like Montgomery, Snell or Imanaga. So where does that leave them? Shopping for MOR or BOR starters. And then you have the pen. That is the easiest to predict. Same as every year. Fill in with an arm or two at under $5M. I actually have no problem with this. This is not Jed bashing. This is not on the edge of the cliff reasoning. This is an honest assessment of what I am seeing.. Maybe they make a few smaller trades for guys with one year left on their contract. But based on what Glasnow cost, that might be too pricey too. But, maybe it doesn’t cost a lot of minor league assets. Maybe that is how he puts a good team in the field. I just doubt it is with larger deals or larger trades.

I’m sorry mate. But when I am told that I should take a horsefeathers breather I do consider that a personal attack.

I would like people to respect other people’s opinions. Just because people don’t think the same doesn’t mean those who think different should stop posting or step away. Suggesting someone is freaking out because they change their outlook on the off season or suggesting someone should step away because his thoughts don’t line up with others is not acceptable. I am fine with disagreement. Not fine with being talked down to.

Maybe you should stop telling me how I should feel. Who the hell are you to decide how someone should view the off season.

Basically we just think differently on how we feel the off season will turn out. There are some who feel the Cubs aren’t going to do enough to be the favorites in the division and some who still expect them to. Those who expect them to are no more unrealistically optimistic than those who don’t expect them to do much, are freaking out. We just think differently. I am fine with you pointing out the off season is young and there are still a lot of opportunities for the Cubs. And, I agree with you, there are. But, IMO, based on reading and listening to things Jed and Hawkins have said I don’t expect many big moves via free agency that will lock them into deals of 4 or more years and I don’t expect any big trades that will cost the Cubs multiple prospects and give them a young’ish’ controlled established star major league ballplayer. I think they are content to add a few short term guys while the young guys come up. But, one thing I think we all should agree about is what 17 seconds said. We all should be upset with them for choosing the plan of waiting out the off season for value signings. As a major market there is a time to actually target a guy and get him and build an off season based on that signing instead of waiting around for the rest of baseball to dictate your off season accomplishments.

Swanson was the 4th SS after the other 3 signed. It was hardly a bidding war for him. Cubs took the guy who fell. Same with Stoman. Other FA pitchers got 5 and 6 year deals and Stroman was left to sign for 2 with an option. Even last year when they pivoted to Taillon, the early talk was Senga. But then many teams were interested so suddenly he was no longer the Cubs target. The only one they may have has had competition for was really Suzuki. So it does appear that Jed does tend to wait out the market and see who he can get without that much competition. When you add that philosophy to what they now appear to be saying about wanted young talent to play and not wanting to block them, it just reads as a team that isn’t going to do much. Take, for instance if Chapman drops. I don’t see them giving him 4 years and blocking 3rd base. I can see Hoskins, but only if no other team gets aggressive with him. Same with Bellinger. And I think other teams will be aggressive with either or both those guys. I also think the FO is overvaluing their young talent, as are we, the fans. I don’t see Jed putting several prospects together to make a big trade. And, again, when has he done that? I am a little annoyed with people calling an opinion other than theirs as someone freaking out. I could just as easily suggest those fans who still see an exciting off season as delusional. But I wouldn’t do that because you and everyone else is entitled to their own opinion without someone suggesting your opinion is delusional or it is only you freaking out. Also, I never said anything about Mancini, Barnhardt or anyone else you mentioned.

No one is freaking out. And Ricketts not attending the conversion isn’t the only sign of a lackluster off season. How about actual words spoken by Hoyer and Hawkins. How about the lack of activity to date? They do not appear to be very aggressive. What do you have as a sign they will be aggressive? What have they said or done to have you believe this? I am just giving into what I believe will be the off season. Not freaking out. Just accepting. What FA pitcher do you honestly feel they will win a bidding war for? I don’t see any. What FA pitcher have they won a bidder war for the last 3 years? None. What bat are they going to sign for big money? Again, I don’t see one they win a bidding war on. And what trade has Jed made the last 3 years that has amounted to a solid controlled major league player? Again, I don’t see any. So why is it that if I decide to change my opinion on what they are going to do this off season it has to be viewed as freaking out? I think they will be content to make a few small moves while not losing minor league assets or blocking spots for minor league talent and go into 2024. Seems to be what they have been suggesting all along.

I thought we were all in agreement that there is no way Morel plays third.

Actually I do. For several reasons. First, I think we all misread what getting Counsell was about. He likes to play younger guys and give them a chance. So this is fine with him. Then you listen to what Hawkins and Hoyer are saying about wanting to filter in the young guys and not wanting to block them, add their lack of any kind of activity and then finally the convention decision to not have the Ricketts Q&A and it has me truly believing they are not going to do much. Might not be exactly how I am suggesting, but I think it will be under the LT, won’t have any major trades and will not sign a guy for more than 3 years. And that guy won’t be a high end FA anyway. I hope I am wrong. But sure seems to me they are not going to be very aggressive. IMO when the season starts they will not be the central favorite and they will be around an 80-82 win projected team. But they will have all their young talent, for whatever that is worth!!!!

My updated expectations are now something like a small trade for Polanco, maybe sign Hoskins a pen arm no more than $5M annual and then a MOR-BOR starting pitcher signed. That is about it. And that would really suck.

Which may be the case because he doesn’t want to field questions and complaints about the off season. I really doubt they do much. Seems the more they talk the more they are bracing the fan base for a disappointing off season.