Rcal10
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Everything posted by Rcal10
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I get not being overly concerned about the off season because a lot of what we expected the Cubs to do is still available. But feeling good about the off season? That is a bit of a reach for me. I agree they still have a lot of guys they can get. Really the only guy gone that many thought they might get is Glasnow. I know Ohtani, Soto and even Yamamoto were guys some were hoping for, but those were all long shots, IMO. That said, I think the best I can say about what is happening so far is there isn’t a reason for concern. YET. There are still very real Cub targets available. But soon things need to start taking shape.
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I don’t see him that low. I think the lowest would be $154 to $161 for 7. And if that’s what he ends up at he really should be a Cub again.
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I would hope are a minimum the starter they bring in as at least at Stroman’s level. Then that 5th spot could be fought between Wicks, Assad, Wesneski, Brown, and Horton. I realize Brown and Horton would probably not happen until June or later, and one of the other guys might be used in a trade. I would then hope they get a couple decent pen arms. And finally 2 bats, one for sure being left handed. For me that is the least they should do this off season. IMO the path that could work is a Naylor/Bieber trade and then sign Chapman. That fills the offense. Center is Tauchman/Canario until PCA is ready. Morel is DH. Bieber is the starter. That leaves 2 pen spots. My guess is 1 (at least) of the guys mentioned as 5th starter potential would be traded to the Guardians.
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Sadly, yes I can.
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I agree Morel is a long shot for 3rd. Which sucks. Because if he could do it the Bellinger signing works, even with PCA. Just play the 5 guys as 3 outfielders, a DH and 1st baseman. And rotate them. Bellinger would sort of a super utility guy filling in everywhere. If Morel has to DH there is not room for Bellinger and PCA on the same team provided Alonso is at 1st.
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I think Bellinger was mentioned on day 1 last year.
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In free agency I agree with you. But in a trade I don’t want the Cubs giving up Brown and Morel for one year of Alonso, or Alcantara for 1 year of Bieber. These are just examples, but the point is if teams are greatly overvaluing their player and asking for a return that is too much, Jed shouldn’t make that trade. In free agency in order to get someone you just have to sometimes give the going rate.
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Most of our discussions have been about Jed waiting on the FA market to drop. But he also might be waiting on the trade market to soften as well. We have seen Sale go for a solid prospect. Glasnow went for more than expected, Rhe white Sox are asking for a crazy return for Cease. I think Jed’s delay in getting things done is very much a result of teams asking an awful lot for established talent. And he is just not willing to give up that much prospect assets.
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I don’t see a fit for both of them.
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A trade doesn’t have to be for a centerfielder, I would assume. They can replace Bellinger’s bat with Naylor, as an example. That does track with what has been suggested before. Naylor and Bieber. Then maybe Chapman on a 4 year deal. DH Morel and Tauchman in center until PCA is ready. They should have enough money to sign top lefty starter and a pen arm. That wouldn’t be a terrible off season. Not as good as I hoped, but passable. If Chapman is too costly or they feel he holds back prospects then they have to pivot. If Morel can handle 3rd that opens up getting a bat like JD Martinez or Solar to DH, instead of signing Chapman. That off season doesn’t cost too many prospects, doesn’t hold anyone back and doesn’t overload the team payroll.
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That is an interesting article. So, let me ask this, what if Bellinger found a happy medium beteeen his projected numbers and his actual numbers. What is he worth at say .285/.340/.460? Basically some of the “luck” he experienced last year is gone. But his approach can still produce that sort of line. Is that a 115 OPS+ guy? Maybe a little more? Is that someone who might be worth the 6/$150M. Is it more like 6/$132M if he plays primarily in the outfield? I think we all agree he isn’t getting what Boras is suggesting. But might he be a solid sign at 6 years in the $130-$150 range?
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But he is a boras client so this stall is kind of normal. We will see how he is viewed in the end. Maybe the suggestion of him getting a Correa type contract of basically 3 one year deals will happen. But I think he will get at least 6/$150 when he eventually signs. Right now Boras is holding that 10/$200 to $250M price tag out there. That is why there isn’t interest. Once we get to 6 or 7 between $22M to $27M I think there will be interest.
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Very true. But Bellinger wasn’t a 3 war player last year. So if he signed a 7/$175M contract he wouldn’t be getting that contract off a 3 war season. No matter how many want so discredit his season(and I don’t mean you) he had a war better than 3. And he could do that again for several seasons IMO. So he would be over 3 for maybe 3 of those year and maybe eight around 3 for a few to settle in at maybe 2.5 his last year or two. I just don’t see tjat contract being an albatross to the team or even some sort of crazy overpay.
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How are the Dodgers that low? They signed Otani costing them $46M annual, Yamamoto at $30M. They have Betts and Freeman for more than $50M between them and traded for Glasnow who cost $25M. That is about $150 for those 5 players.
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A 3 war player is not ridiculously overpaid at $25M annual. If he actually did sign a 7 year deal and averaged a 3 war yearly that wouldn’t be an awful signing.
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So uhhhh who's going to sign all these free agents?
Rcal10 replied to Bertz's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Nice breakdown. Yes, it could pay off. It also can be an epic failure as each player finds one team to actually give them a contract at market rate. He does run the risk of being shut out with this philosophy. And I don’t know why the Cubs feel the need to operate like this. I don’t feel they have to play this game. But they are, so hopefully it ends well. -
The problem is the cubs end game puts way more emphasis on being fiscally responsible and making as much money as they can than it does winning. If they happen to win along they way that’s fine. But the profit is the only thing that matters. Not acting like a large market is putting them at a disadvantage over the entire league. And they just refuse to take advantage of their only advantage, revenue.
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Yes, but that brought Sale’s salary down to a similar salary of Bieber. His trade value was actually much lower than Bieber’s if the team taking him had to take on the entire contract.
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He got a lot of hits the other way with 2 strikes and just punching the ball the other way. I don’t consider that luck. I do think it hurts his EV and hard hit rate and those sort of stats. But to me it is very obtainable for him if he continues to cut down on his 2 strike swing.
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That is what I am saying. Swanson type deal. Sure, it might be too much. Not that awful that it would cripple the team, however. I don’t think the Cubs should worry about a small overpay for a quality player, if they want him.
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Love the enthusiasm Bertz. Sure hope the hell you are right.
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That is fair. Really the point I am making is maybe Jed isn’t making moves because for trades he has to overpay with prospects he doesn’t want to deal, and shouldn’t. And in free agency guys like Bellinger or Chapman or one of the top pitchers are still not reasonable. Maybe the delay works. But it only takes one team to cave on each guy and Jed will be left with nothing to add. Guess it is a high stakes gamble by Jed. Maybe it works or maybe we start next year with Assad and Wicks at the back of the rotation and Mervis as the first baseman, Madrigal at 3rd and PCA/Tauchman in center. And 3rd place in the central locked down.
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But the Guardians would have a pretty good argument for more, if Sale got a guy in that level. Maybe the Cubs can give a couple guys. Canario+ kind of deal.
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Either way, before or after Cassie, just being in that group seems to be a lot for 1 year of Sale. So does Bieber costs the Cubs Alcantara. Bieber has to be considered similar to Sale as far as cost to acquire, right?
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Sorry, I meant starter. Then a relief pitcher at $5M.
