Others have repeatedly pointed out how stupid it would be to not go over the LT this year because of that they did last year. Of course, doesn’t mean they do go over it. So I assumed you want Thielbar more is you think Morrow will cost too much. Ok, based on your scenario it makes sense. The other problem is, why would the Twins trade him? To me, if Jed doesn’t go over the LT this year it is going to be tough to be the favorite in the central. And there is no reason not to go over. But you might be right, unfortunately.
Also, if Belli goes elsewhere I would be ok with Chapman. Sure, the offense would struggle more, but him at 3rd and PCA in center and you have the best defense In baseball. Might win a few more lower scoring games.