Rcal10
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A trade doesn’t have to be for a centerfielder, I would assume. They can replace Bellinger’s bat with Naylor, as an example. That does track with what has been suggested before. Naylor and Bieber. Then maybe Chapman on a 4 year deal. DH Morel and Tauchman in center until PCA is ready. They should have enough money to sign top lefty starter and a pen arm. That wouldn’t be a terrible off season. Not as good as I hoped, but passable. If Chapman is too costly or they feel he holds back prospects then they have to pivot. If Morel can handle 3rd that opens up getting a bat like JD Martinez or Solar to DH, instead of signing Chapman. That off season doesn’t cost too many prospects, doesn’t hold anyone back and doesn’t overload the team payroll.
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That is an interesting article. So, let me ask this, what if Bellinger found a happy medium beteeen his projected numbers and his actual numbers. What is he worth at say .285/.340/.460? Basically some of the “luck” he experienced last year is gone. But his approach can still produce that sort of line. Is that a 115 OPS+ guy? Maybe a little more? Is that someone who might be worth the 6/$150M. Is it more like 6/$132M if he plays primarily in the outfield? I think we all agree he isn’t getting what Boras is suggesting. But might he be a solid sign at 6 years in the $130-$150 range?
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But he is a boras client so this stall is kind of normal. We will see how he is viewed in the end. Maybe the suggestion of him getting a Correa type contract of basically 3 one year deals will happen. But I think he will get at least 6/$150 when he eventually signs. Right now Boras is holding that 10/$200 to $250M price tag out there. That is why there isn’t interest. Once we get to 6 or 7 between $22M to $27M I think there will be interest.
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Very true. But Bellinger wasn’t a 3 war player last year. So if he signed a 7/$175M contract he wouldn’t be getting that contract off a 3 war season. No matter how many want so discredit his season(and I don’t mean you) he had a war better than 3. And he could do that again for several seasons IMO. So he would be over 3 for maybe 3 of those year and maybe eight around 3 for a few to settle in at maybe 2.5 his last year or two. I just don’t see tjat contract being an albatross to the team or even some sort of crazy overpay.
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How are the Dodgers that low? They signed Otani costing them $46M annual, Yamamoto at $30M. They have Betts and Freeman for more than $50M between them and traded for Glasnow who cost $25M. That is about $150 for those 5 players.
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A 3 war player is not ridiculously overpaid at $25M annual. If he actually did sign a 7 year deal and averaged a 3 war yearly that wouldn’t be an awful signing.
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So uhhhh who's going to sign all these free agents?
Rcal10 replied to Bertz's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Nice breakdown. Yes, it could pay off. It also can be an epic failure as each player finds one team to actually give them a contract at market rate. He does run the risk of being shut out with this philosophy. And I don’t know why the Cubs feel the need to operate like this. I don’t feel they have to play this game. But they are, so hopefully it ends well. -
The problem is the cubs end game puts way more emphasis on being fiscally responsible and making as much money as they can than it does winning. If they happen to win along they way that’s fine. But the profit is the only thing that matters. Not acting like a large market is putting them at a disadvantage over the entire league. And they just refuse to take advantage of their only advantage, revenue.
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Yes, but that brought Sale’s salary down to a similar salary of Bieber. His trade value was actually much lower than Bieber’s if the team taking him had to take on the entire contract.
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He got a lot of hits the other way with 2 strikes and just punching the ball the other way. I don’t consider that luck. I do think it hurts his EV and hard hit rate and those sort of stats. But to me it is very obtainable for him if he continues to cut down on his 2 strike swing.
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That is what I am saying. Swanson type deal. Sure, it might be too much. Not that awful that it would cripple the team, however. I don’t think the Cubs should worry about a small overpay for a quality player, if they want him.
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Love the enthusiasm Bertz. Sure hope the hell you are right.
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That is fair. Really the point I am making is maybe Jed isn’t making moves because for trades he has to overpay with prospects he doesn’t want to deal, and shouldn’t. And in free agency guys like Bellinger or Chapman or one of the top pitchers are still not reasonable. Maybe the delay works. But it only takes one team to cave on each guy and Jed will be left with nothing to add. Guess it is a high stakes gamble by Jed. Maybe it works or maybe we start next year with Assad and Wicks at the back of the rotation and Mervis as the first baseman, Madrigal at 3rd and PCA/Tauchman in center. And 3rd place in the central locked down.
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But the Guardians would have a pretty good argument for more, if Sale got a guy in that level. Maybe the Cubs can give a couple guys. Canario+ kind of deal.
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Either way, before or after Cassie, just being in that group seems to be a lot for 1 year of Sale. So does Bieber costs the Cubs Alcantara. Bieber has to be considered similar to Sale as far as cost to acquire, right?
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Sorry, I meant starter. Then a relief pitcher at $5M.
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You are leaving out a top pitcher. That is where they are better. They were an 83 win team last year that may have underachieved at the end. If they bring back an offense as good as last year, maybe a better defense, with an upgrade in center and 1B and add a TOR starter wouldn’t that make them an 87-90 win team. A far cry from what I had hoped staring the off season. But probably closer to what they will do.
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Would an off season where the Cubs sign Urshela, a pen arm around $5M annual, and one of the top lefties available, plus trade for Bieber and Naylor be a successful off season? With each passing day I find myself expecting less and less. Is this as little as they can do and still be called a division favorite. Or is this not good enough. They would have a nice rotation. PCA or Tauchman in center and Morel the DH. This is far from what I hoped at the start of the off season. And I still am hoping for more. But I can honestly say I am not even sure they do this much.
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I think I would do 6 or 7 years at an average of $24 to $27M with no opt outs. Yes, it is probably too long, but not awful. I think he will hit fine. Maybe the 6 gets him $27M a year. The 7 he gets $24M? I don’t know. Just not in favor of losing him because Jed would to 6/$150 but Bellinger wanted an extra year at a similar annual or Bellinger would do 6 but he wanted $162. If they believe in Bellinger and want him, the $2M more a year doesn’t matter, and nor does the extra year.
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I would say he is an upgrade over MadrigL. Seems you would get league average offense as the floor in him with a chance at a 120+’guy who can hit 15-25 homers if he is healthy for the year. That is it Madrigal numbers. He isn’t a guy I would want to be the bat they got, but if he is a second or 3rd piece added that would be ok. IMO he isn’t a guy they should be targeting, but he is exactly the type Jed likes. (The “Mancini” signing of 2024).
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Of course he won’t give up 2 of the Cubs better prospects. But it might cost more than one mid level guy or someone like Wesneski. Maybe that is why a deal hasn’t been completed
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The Sale trade does make me wonder what Bieber costs. After paying a portion of his contract the Red Sox traded him with basically a $10M price tag. And got a solid prospect back. I would think Bieber would net the Guardians a similar deal. Which is more than I thought the Cubs needed to give up.
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I still think they will make some moves. And there are still guys there. I just hate that he allows the rest of the league to dictate what they eventually do. It is just not what a large revenue team should do.
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We really need a move by the Cubs FO to talk about. I realize there are still many options and we can still put together a good team, but just for the sake of conversation we need something.
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So is Sale with a salary of $10M about equal value to Bieber at his salary? Does that mean Bieber’s cost could be Alcantara?
