JD94

Would definitely make a ton of sense if he was willing to do that. I’ll keep dreaming though because the Cubs will never act like a major market team that’s bleeding money anyways.

As silly as it sounds, it’s absolutely what the Cubs should do. Quick rough estimate with Soto, Ohtani, another SP, Arb raises, etc would put our payroll in the ballpark of $260-270M next year. That would be 3rd in baseball this year… which is where we should be. Im sorry… I’m a little kid in the candy store just thinking about this. I have see this lineup in writing: 1B - Happ LF - Soto DH - Ohtani CF - Bellinger SS - Swanson RF - Suzuki 3B - Morel C - Amaya 2B - Hoerner Now that is a competitive lineup that can matchup with the Braves and Dodgers. I had to stick Happ at 1B to make it work. It was that or CF and move Bellinger to 1B, but Bellinger is more valuable in CF than 1B. Maybe Soto moving to 1B would be a option in this extreme hypothetical. He’s not the best defender in LF anyways.

Yeah that’s the tricky part. I have no idea if Jed / Ricketts would even sign off on a deal like that. Maybe they would for the exact right fit, and I’m not sure there’s a better one than a 24 year old superstar. I would even go 12/420 bringing the AAV to $35M per if that’s what it took. I find it hard to believe Soto would turn that down. That would take him until his age 37 season.

You’re right. I misread it.

He’s on pace for around a 5 fWAR season with currently a 152 wRC+. The craziest part is he’s still only 24. He’s under control for 2 more years. You could eventually extend him for 10/350 or whatever. Resign Bellinger since PCA would be gone. Soto is the kind of impact star this team needs. I know it’s a pipe dream, but they are listening. I see no reason to not “blow them away” like the Padres said would have to happen to trade him.

What would you give up for Soto? I would have no problem giving PCA and Horton for him personally.

Apparently the Dodgers and Cardinals are discussing Arenado and that’s the only team he’d waive his NTC for.

Thanks for this thread. It’s hard to keep up with rumors and what not because they get posted in multiple different threads, so I never know where to look. It’s hard to scour Twitter all day at work and keep up, so I look here most of the time.

Totally agree with all of this. I know most Cubs fans want to stand pat or buy at some capacity just because they want to watch a team that’s actually trying to win down the stretch here. And I totally get it after 3 straight years of selling at the deadline. To me though, as much as I’d like to watch a mediocre Cubs team try and back door into the playoffs, I think the future is more important. I trust Jed and those guys to get a solid return back for our assets. They’ve done it with everybody to this point. There’s no reason to think they can’t also do it with Stroman and Bellinger plus Gomes and the rest of the lower tier guys. I mean Jed got Ben Brown for David Robertson. We should probably trust him and Dan when it comes to trades. If you want Bellinger back, just give him the most money. That’s all it comes down to… if that’s what Jed wants to do. I think selling is the way to go here. Again, I would love to watch them try to sneak in the playoffs, but this is a very mediocre team. They are beating up on teams as bad or worse than them right now. I just would hate to risk losing Belli and Stro for nothing but a comp pick and we still miss the playoffs all for nothing. Which I think is a more likely outcome than sneaking into the playoffs anyways even if we kept everybody. Im sure my opinion is not popular. I’m not looking to debate everybody on if standing pat is mortgaging the future or not. I just believe we are better in the long run selling off one last time. Get near ready guys to add to our own near ready prospects and spend like crazy in FA. Trade from prospect depth in the offseason to acquire a good young MLB player.

I like the catcher the WS got back in the Giolito trade. Not having a great year this year as a 20 year old in AA but he was pretty dang good last year. He’s a 50 FV prospect. Walks as much as he strikes out and has a little pop. Still a work in progress, but not bad for Giolito and Lopez.

You can absolutely sell with an eye on next year. Trade from prospect depth to also help next years team. I don’t see Jed selling to get a 19 year old in A ball. I’m not sure he has enough job security for that anyways. He needs to put a legit winner on the field like next year. Theo had a 97 win team in his 4th year after a full tear down. Next year is year 4 for Jed.

Trade Bellinger and Stroman and replace them with Wesneski and PCA and see what happens. Also call up Mervis and play him every day at 1B. Plus in a Bellinger and Stro trade, you should get back a prospect that’s ready to be called up. I mean the Braves called up Michael Harris straight from AA and it worked out for him. Even if PCA comes up and sucks, it’s not like it’s going to be detrimental to his development. I know they aren’t going to do this, but it’s what I would do. I mean we have the best bat and the best SP on the market and we are 3 games under .500 a week away from August. I just don’t want to see us walk away missing the playoffs and only getting a comp pick out of Bellinger when we have multiple assets that could bring back solid to good prospects. I mean 2 of our best pitching prospects come from trades for a reliever. Sell and call up the youngsters.

I think Stroman gets dealt regardless. They will just call up Wesneski to replace him. If they look like they should not sell, they will likely keep Bellinger and just get a comp pick for him. I don’t see a scenario where Stroman isn’t traded though. That’s just my guess.

Adbert is just nasty.

https://twitter.com/michael_cerami/status/1684004744484868097?s=46&t=iRdezfuJVGBU0wPvMftX0w

https://twitter.com/iowacubs/status/1684016602138791940?s=46&t=iRdezfuJVGBU0wPvMftX0w

Right. I’m just saying paying Bellinger as a gold glove 4-5 fWAR CF and then sticking him at 1B is bad value. I’m not saying you can’t find a spot for him, you can, but you’re paying him as a CF and you have a top 10 CF prospect in the game that’s almost ready. It shouldn’t and won’t stop the Cubs from resigning Bellinger if they wanted to do that, but it’s also something that should he considered. I mean Freddie Freeman is the highest paid 1B ever at 6/162 and he’s a perennial 4-6 WAR player.

Yep.. it’s hard to say for sure. I just know the general ballpark will be around the Nimmo deal. Maybe it’s like you said and fewer years, higher AAV. Maybe it’s an opt out after year 2. Maybe it’s both. I have no idea. He’s definitely made himself some money this year though.

His injury history concerns me. Paying him as an elite CF when PCA will be ready next year scares me. His baseball savant page scares me. But damn he’s been a star this year. He’s the exact type of players we need to be adding, so watching him walk would/will be hard.

He will want Brandon Nimmo money. I can guarantee you that will be the comp Scott Boras uses. Nimmo got 8/162.

I think the best blueprint to use in figuring out what Bellinger could bring back is previous similar deals. History shows that rental bats don’t bring much back at the deadline. I do agree that all it takes is one GM to say “you know what, I think Cody Bellinger really puts us over the top.” That is a very possible outcome that shouldn’t be ignored. I also think the Cubs are in a “win-win” situation with Cody. They either get a strong package for him at the deadline, get the comp pick, or just keep him and resign him. If you told Jed when he signed Cody to a “prove it” deal that these options were on the table, he would have jumped for joy. It meant that Cody worked out, and he has. Good signing by Jed regardless of what happens at the deadline.

From a betting standpoint, the Cardinals are at -120. They opened at -150, but 70% of the money came in on the Cubs and lowered the betting line a bit, but yes, the Cardinals are favored in this one.

I’m not sure if this is directed at anybody in particular or just a general comment. I think the poster you’re referring to is very knowledgeable on how things work. I’ve noticed that in my short time here. I also think having PSD guys coming over (some who I would put up against anybody in the category of truly understanding baseball) is a good thing for everybody to get different ideas. This baseball thing isn’t an exact science. GM’s and Scouts and Presidents get things wrong every year. Half of the 1st round picks in this years draft will be busts. Somebody will make a horrible trade at the deadline. Just 2 small examples of the best of the best inevitably being wrong. This is in no way implied to TT, more so a general thought your post made me think of… plenty of people understand baseball to a higher degree that the large majority of baseball fans. Plenty of people understand how to value players, how to read baseball savant pages, how to read advanced analytics. Nobody can predict anything with 100% certainty though. Not ML GM’s, not the smartest baseball mind you or I know, not anybody. Everybody gets things wrong. Which brings me back to my original point of having new opinions on the board, new outlooks, and new ideas is a good thing for everybody. There’s nobody who can predict the exact prospect Marcus Stroman brings back or if PCA will be a perennial All-Star, so let’s just appreciate smart baseball people bouncing ideas off each other and see what sticks rather than ranking posters or implying peoples ideas are bad because at the end of the day, you can read all the stats, have all the information, and still be completely wrong. Again, this is just a general reaction to your post. Not meant to talk about anybody specifically, so I hope it’s not taken that way. I firmly believe iron sharpens iron. Give me all the smart baseball minds in the same room bouncing ideas off each other. We all have the same end goal in mind.

I don’t disagree with any of this really. They will 100% shop Bellinger. If a return blows them away, they will take it. If not, which is likely, they will keep him and take the comp pick once he declines the QO. I lean more heavily towards Stroman is getting traded regardless. Blake Snell is the only other starter that could get dealt that’s as good as Stroman. I’m not completely sold the Padres sell though. They are in a more unique situation than the Cubs. They have a loaded team and are technically in their competitive window. Their GM is a “gunslinger” type. He always has his foot on the gas pedal. If they decide to hold on to Snell, then Stroman is easily the best pitcher available and that will be very beneficial for the Cubs.

I just don’t see any path where the Cubs don’t sell. Personally I think it would be a mistake to not sell regardless of what happens from now until the deadline. That’s just me though. I’d sell this year and by god they better win next year. No more selling. No more excuses.