JD94

I’m not arguing returns and value of prospects for rentals vs comp picks. I’m saying the Cubs are selling. Stroman will 100% be traded. Bellinger will 100% be traded if they get a return more valuable than the comp pick. That’s all I’m saying.

If the QO wasn’t on the table to get a comp pick back, then the Cubs would have traded Contreras for a bag of balls. That caveat has to be considered. That’s literally the only reason they didn’t trade him. There was always that fall back option. Look I mean if you want to hold out hope or whatever it is that they aren’t selling this deadline then fine, that’s your prerogative. Personally I think we are doing a disservice to not speak realistically here about the path to selling. The Cubs are going to sell. I’d rather talk about possible returns than argue back and forth all day about “what if they don’t because they did this last year” or “what if they win X amount of games and this team loses Y amount of games,” etc… I could absolutely see Bellinger not get dealt if the return isn’t good enough. I’ll give you that one. They can either do the same with him as they did with Contreras and value the comp pick more than trade returns and go that route, or maybe they just resign him in the offseason. Everybody else should absolutely be discussed as trade options and what the returns could be though. Such as Hendricks possibly, Stroman, Gomes, Smyly (not likely anybody wants him, but still), a couple of our relievers, etc.

Come on man. Jed would be the worst GM of all time if he looked at an asset like Willson Contreras who was a upcoming free agent on a team that lost the division by 19 games and said “you know what, I don’t think we want to trade him. I’m also not going to offer him an extension. I don’t want him beyond 2022, but I’m not going to trade him either.” Does that actually make sense to you? He tried like hell to trade Contreras. He ended up settling for the comp pick instead.

The Cubs absolutely tried and had every intention to trade Contreras and Happ at the deadline. Contreras was a tough one because teams don’t necessarily like trading for a starting catcher at the deadline unless it’s a no brainer. Contreras came with defensive concerns obviously which is not something they wanted to deal with having him come in and mess up their starters. He was a done deal to Houston before Dusty stepped in and said no. The Cubs decided that the comp pick they’d get for him was better than anything else they could get. Happ was always a guy that was still young and decent enough that if they couldn’t get a solid return for him that they could give a small extension to and just keep him around. That was more valuable than the returns they were offered. It has nothing to do with the Cubs deciding to not make bigger moves and it won’t have any indication on what they might do this year. Stroman will be traced and Bellinger will too if they get a package that they think is more valuable than the comp pick they would receive by extending him the QO.

Sahadav Sharma had an article just this morning that included this quote about Ballesteros defensively: “The question has always been whether he can stick at catcher. Looking at his body type, observers would think that’s an easy no. But the Cubs see a really good mover who is agile and has a surprisingly solid movement profile. It’s a bat-first situation, but assuming he can’t stick behind the plate isn’t a safe bet just yet.”

Same. I don’t care what they do really until the deadline, they should still sell. It sucks though. We are the Chicago Cubs. We deserve to be watching a contender every year. I loved seeing Wrigley rocking today when Belli got the big 2 run single. We deserve that. They better hurry up and put a legit team on the field. Like next year quick. No more excuses. Theo took over at the end of 2011 and started the rebuild and had a 97 win team on the field in 2015, which was going into year 4. Jed will be going into year 4 next year of a “re-tool” where we didn’t hard tank for draft picks, but have sold for 3 straight years at the deadline. It’s time he puts a winner on the field. This team was in much worse shape when Theo took over also. Jed had the luxury of extremely valuable trade chips at his disposal to start this thing off.

2 things: 1) Are you also concerned that PCA’s BABIP is .347? Btw his .347 BABIP is his lowest at any level he’s played at. 2) Nobody is saying Perlaza should be an every day player or that he’s being slept on or that he’s even a good major league player potentially. I feel like pretty much everybody is on the same page here that he’s a possible 4th OF, bench player, DH option that deserves a look. Why would you not be eager to see him at the ML level this year? You do know the Cubs are selling, right? This team is going to be even worse in about 2 weeks. Who cares if Perlaza gets playing time or some rando from the bleachers gets playing time? The fact is, Perlaza is in his 3rd straight year with a wRC+ over 120. He’s about to turn 25. He’s rule V eligible. The big league team is about to suck even worse the next 2 months. We aren’t playing for anything. There’s going to be plenty of 40 man space. Bring him up and see what he is. See if he can carve out a role or if he’s just a AAAA type of player. It hurts literally nothing. He has earned the opportunity. Nobody is acting like he’s a star player. Yes, I wish every single position player on our team had a 40% FB% with 90th percentile EV’s. That’s not possible though. And just because a player doesn’t have perfect underlying numbers to be a super star doesn’t mean he can’t have a role. I didn’t have defending Yonathan Perlaza on my bingo card this morning. I also didn’t think anyone could or would actually pushback that he doesn’t deserve an opportunity in a lost season when we are about to sell off a handful of our good players. Maybe if I said “Perlaza should be called up because I think he should be our starting CF” I could see pushback? All I’m saying is this is 3 straight years he’s proven to be a pretty solid minor league hitter and he should get the opportunity to show if he can or can’t be a depth piece big leaguer in a lost season. Rant over for good. No since in continuing this conversation. Especially not for a lowly prospect like Perlaza. It doesn’t matter to me either way, just seems obvious that giving him a shot in 2 weeks hurts literally nothing.

Walker is god awful defensively

You don’t have to promote him, but what’s the point of adding him to the 40 man if you’re never going to give him a shot? If you think you might give him a shot one day, then it should be for the next 2 months when the results don’t matter. As he’s nearing 25, he is what he is likely at this point. You either think there’s a solid bench bat in there or you don’t. I would be more than fine if I never see Mancini or Wisdom take another AB for the Chicago Cubs. It also makes zero logical sense for them to take any AB’s over any single prospect who have even a slimmer of hope of playing a role on the next competitive team.

I don’t disagree with what his ceiling is, which is likely a bench bat / 4th OF at best case scenario. I’m just saying, you have to have guys like that on the roster. Every team has a Perlaza. If he can be that guy for cheap for the next 6-7 years, then it’s a win. There will be plenty of playing time available in a couple of weeks. There is absolutely zero scenario where a guy like Mancini or Wisdom should take playing time away from guys like Perlaza or Mervis the rest of the year. We can be 99% sure Perlaza is nothing, but if Mancini and Wisdom are 100% nothing moving forward, then it’s a no brainer that you play the prospect with a 127 wRC+ in AAA over them. Obviously the same applies to Mervis, who is much more intriguing than Perlaza. That’s my point. You have literally nothing to lose by calling up Perlaza after the deadline and giving him PT to see if he can hit at this level. Again, he’s rule 5 eligible. At some point he has to get an opportunity or you’re just letting him walk for nothing.

I mean Perlaza either has a role or he doesn’t. Again, he’s about to turn 25. It’s time to find out if he’s a somebody or a nobody. What better time to start finding that out than the last 2 months of this year after we sell and have punted the rest of the year? Same with Mervis. I don’t understand why you would want to wait? If Perlaza and Mervis suck, I’d rather let them suck when we aren’t trying to win than suck next year in the Majors when we are actually trying to win. That doesn’t seem like an adequate plan to me. Saving a option year on Perlaza means very little to me. At some point you have to give him a shot. That time is now.

He’s about to turn 25 and rule 5 eligible. He’s posted 3 straight years of 120+ wRC+ seasons. You have to see what you have before you let him walk for nothing. The 40 man deal isn’t an obstacle as you said after the deadline. There will be plenty of 40 man room. If he’s a 4th OF / DH / solid MLB bench player that gives you good AB’s, well that’s pretty valuable.

Yep. I expect Mervis back and Perlaza up for sure to see what we have in those 2 specifically after the deadline. Hopefully they actually play Mervis every day this stint. Sitting him half the time and not playing him against LHP is doing a disservice to him.

I would guess we don’t see Mervis until after the TDL.

Makes total sense. I didn’t know if his prospect pedigree just a short time ago would be more appealing than a guy like Roederer. I guess pedigree really doesn’t have much to do with it though. Teams probably wouldn’t care about that much at this point. Davis is still only 23, so there’s time. Personally I wouldn’t mind a sweetener like a Roederer, for example, to get a Mead type of prospect, along with Stroman. I feel like it close to the point where that’s acceptable with so many OF options. Happ and Suzuki are here now, but guys like PCA, Alcantara, Caissie, Canario, Perlaza, Davis, Roederer are all near ready and different levels of intriguing obviously.

This might be a dumb question, but would you “throw in” Brennan Davis with Stroman if that’s what it took to get, say, Curtis Mead from Tampa? Or is there any realistic scenario where that type of deal makes sense? Or do you think thats giving up on Davis too quick, and it could burn us down the road? I just feel like if you don’t believe in Davis anymore that this might be the best opportunity to get a pretty elite prospect back. He could be enough, added with Stroman, to put a deal over the top for an elite prospect. Somebody might think there’s still upside there, which it might be. I personally don’t believe in him, but as you said, at one point nobody believed in Amaya and that group anymore either. Just throwing out a thought.

The main reason I don’t think it’s trade related is because I saw somebody say this Saturday was listed as TBD before the series even started. Sure, it’s possible it’s trade related, but if a deal was close enough to go TBD on Saturday, it shouldn’t take 3 days to finalize it. I lean injury. The Cubs probably have known about it, but didn’t see the point in making the roster move until tomorrow.

Yep. Some speculation he will be an “opener” for Wesneski. Wesneski hasn’t pitched since Sunday and isn’t starting tonight, his scheduled start day. I’m not sure if it’s injury related or what. I doubt it’s trade related. I’m guessing injury.

For me, it’s between ARSB and Stevenson. I lean ARSB, but man, Stevenson in the 9th round is insane value. Now that I’m thinking about it, I’m 50/50 between the 2. Personally I wouldn’t keep Fields. You could grab Herbert or Lawrence around the 5th/6th round and be fine at QB. I think I would go Stevenson. He has RB1 upside and you’re getting that in the 9th round. RB is the most sacred position in FF. Get a stud RB with your first pick to go with him, and you have a huge advantage the rest of your draft. You can load up on WR and whatever else after your first pick.

Why is Fulmer starting tomorrow and not Smyly?

I’m kind of out on extending or resigning Bellinger. His overall stat line is very good, but his baseball savant page is concerning. He also had a good 2 months of being hurt and ice cold with the bat when he did play. I would just be very concerned to give him 5/125 or something when you consider all the facts like what he’s been the last 3 years and his underlying numbers and injuries.

likely nothing, but interesting. I’m sure he was just fooling around

Glad to see you, Thaw! It’s like a big ole’ family reunion in here lol. I also hate change, but I’m just thankful we had a good landing spot. It’ll take a little while to get used to this format, but it seems very active with a lot of passionate fans like ourselves. Can’t wait to discuss Cubs baseball with you and everybody else.

This is a great idea. Sign me up for all of 1908’s content. When I learned PSD was shutting down, I messaged 1908 privately to make sure I didn’t lose touch with him. I wanted to make sure I went to the same message board as him. He’s incredibly gifted and knowledgeable and he’s completely changed the way I view players and the game of baseball, whether he knows that or not. Every time he posts, I learn something new.