JD94

Buster Olney reporting that there in a 100% chance Juan Soto is traded this offseason.

I think Ohtani is a different deal than most. He’s so unique and the best player in baseball. I personally feel like if you’re connected to Ohtani it’s because you’re willing to sit at the big boy table. Like Bellinger for example, a lot of teams will check in and test the waters because nobody is exactly sure what kind of money he will get. So there will be more rumors around his signing. Only a few teams can and would pay Ohtani, so fewer rumors. The rumors is what makes the offseason fun to me. I love them lol

Getting outbid by an AAV of $5M isn’t what I’d call getting “outbid by a wide margin.” When I think getting outbid by a wide margin, I think the Cubs coming in at a high AAV with less years to lower to total money. And if that’s the case, then why even waste everybody’s time? This isn’t to say you or Sharma are wrong, maybe I’m misinterpreting what “wide margin” means in this scenario. The difference between 400 and 450 over 10 years isn’t that big of a deal in the grand scheme of things. ETA: Also if you’re willing to do 400, then why wouldn’t you do 450 if that is 100% your guy and 450 would get it done? That just doesn’t make sense to me.

I just disagree with the last sentence. You don’t waste your time pursuing Ohtani if you’re not ready to pony up. You can’t be half in, trying to get “cute” with a high AAV/shorter term contract or whatever. All you’re doing is wasting your time and Shohei’s time also. If you’re in it, and it’s reported you’re in it, it’s because you’re willing to go $400+M over however many years. You don’t waste everybody’s time by saying “okay Shohei, we are offering $250M over 6 years. Do we have a deal?!” You’re either willing to sit at the big boy table, or you’re not. Every team, every GM, every owner all knows the score going into this deal.

This feels real at this point.

Yeah I agree. This feels more like a leverage play than anything. Losing Snell and Hader and not being willing to resign them, or replace them, due to financial constraints obviously doesn’t scream “playoff caliber team.” They would get more trading Soto now. They get a better prospect return and open up an extra ~$30M. If reports are true that they want to stay around a $200M payroll, they would then have a little financial flexibility to add and still be around where they want to be after trading Soto. Add in if they got a player back like a Morel they could automatically slot into their lineup. That just makes way more sense for them IMO than waiting.

The Athletic also just reported that the Padres would likely wait until the deadline to trade Soto. I don’t understand that if they decide to do that. Maybe it’s just leverage to put that out there as in, “hey if you don’t give us what we want, we will just hold onto him for now.” You can’t justify trading Juan Soto in July if you’re right there in the race.

The Athletic reporting that if Alonso is traded, it would likely be to either the Cubs, Giants, or Mariners.

Yeah unless they have Vladdy Jr over there playing 1b, I don’t see them saying “no, Jed… we absolutely will not play Morel at 1B even though you’ve asked so nicely.” I’m sure there is give and take involved, but I would imagine as long as it’s not something crazy, they would be willing to cooperate with MLB GM’s in these situations. As you said, it certainly sounds like Jed asked them to play Morel at 1B.

I’d move anybody not named Horton or PCA for Soto. Not for 1 year and I’m not even guaranteed to extend him. Obviously we’ve seen time and time again all you have to do is make the playoffs and be hot at the right time, but on paper, we aren’t a Juan Soto away from WS contenders. Going all in and trading one of, if not the best starting pitching prospect in all of baseball to go all in on WS or bust doesn’t make a whole hell of a lot of sense for this current Cubs team.

Which is exactly why I needed clarification on the context lol. I literally got a notification from Bleacher Report— Boras: Soto Not Being Traded. I can breathe a sigh of relief now.

Thoughts on Boras saying Soto won’t be traded? I didn’t hear the context, so maybe I’m misinterpreting. That doesn’t sound good though.

I know I’m setting myself up for disappointment possibly, but it totally feels like they want to walk away from this offseason with one of Soto or Ohtani to have that superstar to build around.

Pretty sure the WS dumped Renteria when they were supposed to start being competitive, just like we did.

Most of his Brewers teams really sucked on paper, but he got the absolute most out of them year in and year out. He’s a great manager.

LFG. The Cubs mean business this offseason. It’s about time they flex their muscles. Don’t let us down now.

Though more risky, I’d rather give that type of money to 25 year old Yamamoto rather than 30 year old Nola.

Yeah I think it’s pretty clear to understand why SD has decided to cut payroll.

I can’t remember the numbers exactly, but I thought after all was said and done (arb raises, declining Hendricks’ option, counting on Stro to opt in, etc) that we would have around ~90 mil to spend this offseason. That keeps us under the 2nd tax threshold and gives a few million to spend on in season acquisitions. If that’s true (I admit, I could be misremembering), we should easily be able to afford Soto and Alonso, & still have $ left over to fill out the rest of the roster.

That’s a great question. I wish I was listening so I could better understand if that’s sourced or more of his opinion based on the Padres really liking Morel. As far as Soto goes, since I haven’t really commented yet, I’ll say I agree with Brett at BN. It’s cool to see multiple reports verifying the Cubs interest. Cerami had it first a few weeks ago I believe. And as much pushback as he gets for being “tik tok boy” he absolutely has a source inside the program right now. Back to the Morel point though, I imagine he’s definitely the headliner the Padres prefer in any trade regardless if it’s a 1 for 1 or not and that’s great news for us. If we can get a 25 year old superstar and also keep our top 8-10 prospects, that would be total best case scenario.

Why wouldn’t Soto sign an extension? Because he didn’t sign one with Washington when he was like 22 years old that would have paid him $29M AAV over 15 years? San Diego hasn’t even put an offer on the table. They have multiple long term commitments already and they aren’t winning. I’m sure they are thinking throwing $400M+ might not be the smartest business decision for them right now considering their situation. I obviously don’t know what Soto wants, but you’d have to believe something like $35M~ AAV over 12 years would get it done.

Screw it. We need superstars. Trade for Alonso and give him 6/132 (22 AAV) Trade for Soto and give him 12/420 (35 AAV) Sign Ohtani and give him 10/400 (40 AAV) Sign Yamamoto and who knows on his contract, but somewhere around 22 AAV If the Cubs are around $176M counting arb raises and guys that will be back (including Stroman and Gomes but excluding Hendricks since they can decline his option and they should in this scenario) and they spend over the $237M threshold but stay under the next threshold of $257, that gives them about $70M and leaves a little room for deadline deals. If you added all the players I mentioned above, you could move Happ to save $21M next season. Now you have around $91M to spend and to stay below the 2nd LT threshold. With the additions of the players mentioned above, that would be about $119M give or take some. That would put us over the 2nd threshold of $257M by about $28M. I’m guessing if you trade for Soto and Alonso and then extend them, that their extensions wouldn’t count against you until the next year, which would make the money work out to stay below the 2nd threshold. lineup would be something like: 2B - Hoerner LF - Soto DH - Ohtani 1B - Alonso SS - Swanson RF - Suzuki 3B - Morel C - Amaya / Gomes CF - PCA Rotation Steele Yamamoto Stroman Wicks Taillon Obviously this will never happen, but it should. Maybe my money is off (just now having my first cup of coffee lol) and it wouldn’t work. I’ll be surprised if we end up with 1 of these guys, let along all 4. The Cubs will likely spend enough to say “hey we spent money” but not enough to really put us over the top like the Chicago Cubs can and should spend. It’s just a fun little exercise. Again almost a 0% chance of happening.

Hell of a job Jordan. I’d turn it over to the pen now.

The question is what his ceiling is. I think special is a reach. He hasn’t ever really been special. He’s always been just good throughout the minors. I think his upside is a solid #2 and maybe more likely a good #3. That’s not a criticism. If that is what he is, it’s an absolute A+ job by the Cubs. It’s a win for Jordan and the organization. He’s been absolutely incredible since the first couple of batters, but we have to remember this Pirates lineup is trash.