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Bertz

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Everything posted by Bertz

  1. Bertz
    Ryan Brasier pitching for the second day in a row, so assume he rejoins the big club in Miami. Chris Flexen probably goes 2-3 innings tomorrow or Monday and then gets the boot.
  2. Bertz
    Luke Little seems fixed. No huge rush to call him up, but great to see.
  3. Bertz
    It usually costs less than you think. Reason being that team control for relievers is heavily discounted due to the crazy level of attrition. The Jason Adam trade at last year's deadline is probably a good comp, though Bautista probably nets a bit more. That trade was Dylan Lesko, a back of the 100 pitching prospect, plus two interesting lesser pieces. I'd expect something like this: - Pick 1 from our pre-arb SPs, excluding Brown/Horton - Pick 1 from the Iowa relievers - A teenage lottery ticket So something like Assad, Neely, Lumpuy as an example. This also presupposes that as he continues to knock off rust he starts pitching like an elite closer again. Because to this point he's been more good than great. Understandable coming off surgery but to return a premium like I laid out above he does need to get back to that level.
  4. Bertz
    Ryan Gallagher has 12 strikeouts?!?!
  5. Bertz
    Sanders is shoving, Maeda did not
  6. Bertz
    It's not the most notable thing from today but Daniel Palencia was NASTY
  7. Bertz
    I've mentioned this previous but I think there's a "Pick 2 Keep 2" with Caissie/Alcantara/Ballesteros/Long. In addition to their actual performances, I do think what happens with Tucker and to a lesser extent Shaw influences who it makes sense to keep. As a RHH 1B/3B/DH, I think Long is almost an automatic keep if either Tucker sticks around or Shaw disappoints.
  8. Bertz
    Jonny Long joined the dong party as well. A tertiary benefit to calling up Shaw sooner rather than later is that it opens up opportunity to play 3B for Long. Because the bat is probably not far from MLB ready.
  9. Bertz
    OMG Shaw again
  10. Bertz
    Reggie Preciado over the last month is hitting .284/.351/.403, which is I believe north of a 100 wRC+ in that park. It's not enough to re-shine the apple, but he's getting back onto the "keep tabs on me" list for me. Still age appropriate for SB.
  11. Bertz
    Video
  12. Bertz
    Yeah Shaw's ready. I'm alright with it being a few more days because of the roster shuffling already in line with Happ coming back, but he needs to be a big leaguer again at worst in Cincinnati.
  13. Bertz
    Brett Taylor brought this up today but Iowa's rotation is pretty ragged. Brown, Flexen, and Horton are all up here in MLB covering for injuries and Birdsell is hurt. It's basically Wicks and Noland and then bullpen games. I obviously do not want Kenta Maeda getting MLB innings, but if god forbid 2-3 SPs went down in the next couple weeks we'd be looking at like Keegan Thompson starting games. A guy like this, maybe even a second one, feels pretty responsible to add.
  14. Bertz
    It would be really cool if he got hot and started delivering on that hype he was getting in ST
  15. Bertz
    Long has - Good Patience - A better than average groundball rate - Average Contact - Average raw power - An elite hard hit rate All that together is pretty damn good! The potential problem is he has an all fields approach, which is limiting the slug (and juicing the average). I probably wouldn't mess with him, it's a unique profile and I think that has value. But if you want more dongs you've gotta make him more pull oriented. And probably risk breaking him in the process.
  16. Bertz
    I'm not clamoring for it by any means, but if Noland had to start an MLB game in the next few weeks I think it'd work out okay.
  17. Bertz
    A bit, but nothing substantial Hard Hit Rate: 40.9% in April, 40.6% in May Barrel Rate: 9.6% in April, 10.3% in May GB Rate: 37.8% in April, 42.3% in May K's and BB's both went the wrong way as well, but less than a percentage point for each. Add it all up and the team's xwOBA has dropped a bit, from .350 in April (4th in MLB) to .341 (9th) in May. Their actual wOBA on the other hand has dropped from .348 (3rd) to .311 (16th). It's luck, these things ebb and flow. Everyone wants to make it some big failing but it's just something that happens.
  18. Bertz
    March/April BABIP - .303 May BABIP (coming into today)- .234
  19. Bertz
    Orioles are down early in Minnesota. If they don't come back they'll be 10 games under .500. Gotta be one of the more disappointing teams in recent history.
  20. Bertz
  21. Bertz
  22. Bertz
    I decided to do a little Statcasting. Not sure how well links to there work but it should be a bunch of relevant stats by month going back to the start of last year. Caissie's power numbers picked up a bit in the second half last year, but have exploded this year. Hard hit rate over 50% both months is very good (80th-something percentile), but the barrel numbers are insane. For reference the average MLB barrel rate hovers around 8%. 20% is elite, there have only been 11 qualified seasons north of 20 since Statcast was implemented. Aaron Judge is the only guy who's ever topped 25 in a full season. The whiff rate is higher than last year, and last year was already kind of at the top end of acceptable. Here in May he's back closer to last year's range. He ideally would keep chipping away at it, but if the power is even close to legit it might not matter? Joey Gallo is right there as an easy comp. It hasn't manifested in increased production yet, but his xwOBAs have really jumped, so decent argument that he's been unlucky. Especially since, in addition to more barrels he's also juiced his pull rate (something I hadn't picked up on yet). He's at 50% on the year which is ~90th percentile. So tl;dr is that Caissie's batted ball profile is more or less perfect now.
  23. Bertz
    Why do you think I referenced Moises getting sent down in about a week?
  24. Bertz
    Caissie's contact numbers are slowly creeping up and he's keeping the GB% and EV gains
  25. Bertz
    Assuming he stays in a good place the next week+ I'd bring Shaw back up when they send down Moises
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