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Bertz

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Everything posted by Bertz

  1. Bertz
  2. Bertz
    Not even a little true
  3. Bertz
    He's also never thrown 100 innings in a season so comes with the same sort of durability considerations we have with Horton/Brown
  4. Bertz
    There is no reason to trade Rojas. Cash some of those Iowa chips instead.
  5. Bertz
    Really good look at the under the hood stuff for Alcantara. Things look fairly rosie.
  6. Bertz
    The fact of the matter is, because of the expectations around guys repeating their minor league level, Caissie's stock was probably (mildly) down this year until some point in the last week or two. He *needed* to have a stretch like this to justify keeping his status as a top ~50 prospect IMO. Caissie's certainly too good to be used on a rental, but I feel comfortable moving him this month. For instance I'd gladly include Caissie in deals for Griffin Jax or Edward Cabrera. I'd reluctantly include him in a Keller/Bednar deal. And I'm on the fence on a Kris Bubic deal. Ideally we would know what's going to happen with Tucker before we moved Caissie, but with Alcantara, Long, and Ballesteros in hand it's not a massive consideration IMO.
  7. Bertz
    Everyone craps on BaseballTradeValues but it does at least help keep this kind of nonsense down
  8. Bertz
    Cam Sisneros continues to rake. With his age he's basically gotta continue racing through the system but sub 10% K rates with seemingly okay power is always worth keeping an eye on
  9. Bertz
    Yeah this feels like either something extremely benign like he got the runs or a hug watch. Because the timing wouldn't seem to line up with an injury at all.
  10. Bertz
    Ummmm do we know why Alcantara was pulled?
  11. Bertz
    This is so weird. Jaxon's last start was 6/20, and it looks like Futures Game Rosters were announced on 6/30. I would think if he got hurt in between he wouldn't have been announced to begin with? But with him being pulled It's hard to imagine anything but injury. Hopefully it's something obnoxiously persistent but not scary, like Hodge's injury earlier in the year.
  12. Bertz
    Probably worth noting that Amaya's breakout started a year ago this week. The anniversary of PCA's breakout is still 3 weeks out. And I'd say the under the hood stuff for Shaw is far less ugly than it was for either of those guys at the same juncture. That's not to say that Shaw will break out this week or this month or ever. But when these things happen they tend to happen really quickly and the reward is immense.
  13. Bertz
    I remember being fairly mad about the Nico pick. There's enough egg on my face there (he's still leading that draft in career WAR) that I refuse to get mad about drafting "boring" guys again.
  14. Bertz
    Nico Hoerner's a free agent in 15 months, Swanson's a 31 year old whose defensive metrics are down YoY, and the Cubs don't have a shortstop prospect worth a damn in AA or AAA.
  15. Bertz
    The draft being part of the All Star Break hurts too. Much in the same way that the offseason dies for a week or two heading into the arbitration deadline, draft prep is a huge lift in terms of man hours for industry folks.
  16. Bertz
    I hope that lasts another three days, but even with the injuries this is probably a .500ish team on talent and they're going to pull out of it at some point.
  17. Bertz
    I think this series is going to be less easy than folks think. The SP matchups are advantageous obviously, but the Twins' bullpen is monstrous and their position player group is solid. Add in being on the road and I don't think we should just assume a cake walk. I'll be happy with 3-3 this week heading into the break.
  18. Bertz
    Yeah he reads like if you put Nico and Dansby in a blender. That's probably phenomenal value but I don't expect this fanbase to process "10-12 homerun power" appropriately
  19. Bertz
    Reading up more on Houston since I hadn't paid much attention to him prior to this, and man this board would hate that pick lol
  20. Bertz
    Not super valuable since it reads like this is a dart throw rather than anything sourced, but Keith Law this AM
  21. Bertz
    I had not noticed, but Charlie Morton has basically been back to peak form for like two months now. And if you want an excuse to believe it's legit, his velo is up corresponding to that. It's really a tale of 3 seasons: First 4 Starts: 10.90 ERA (not a typo!), 5.82 xFIP, 93.3 MPH fastball Banished to the bullpen (7 long relief outings and one spot start): 4.43 ERA, 4.07 xFIP, 94.3 MPH fastball Back to the Rotation (7 starts): 2.97 ERA, 3.33 xFIP, 94.4 MPH fastball So he's back in the rotation, dominating, and didn't lose any velo from his time relieving. He CAN NOT be your only pitching addition, but if we add two SPs I'd be perfectly happy for Morton to be the lesser.
  22. Bertz
    In the Athletic this weekend they mentioned that the plan isn't to start Wicks, it's to continue to stretch out Flexen. I suspect that's publicly because Flexen has earned it and privately to put Wicks in advantageous situations to try and showcase him for trade. That said, the Yankees do absolutely mash lefties and the Twins very much don't, so I wouldn't be surprised if they do a Flexen/Wicks piggyback Thursday and push Rea back that extra day to Friday. I don't think you feel great about either game regardless, but I think k that arrangement gives you a couple extra percentage points on each matchup.
  23. Bertz
    I'm curious how badly the next few weeks need to go to turn the Cardinals into sellers. Their playoff odds are 32% at the moment, and they're just a game out of a wildcard spot. That's generally "cautious buyer" territory. However, they came into this season IMO pretty clearly wanting to sell. Assuming they tread water the next few weeks, I wonder if they at least sell Helsley and Matz?
  24. Bertz
    Yeah I want Cabrera pretty bad. I think my current favorite outcome for the deadline is Cabrera + Zac Gallen + Willi Castro. - Cabrera's the obvious big fish and would be here for a long time, so the hefty prospect price he'll inevitably cost should feel worth it for a good while - Gallen's having a tough year, but his velo is fine and he does keep having occasional dominant outings. He feels fixable, and if he's not it's not the end of the world because we added another starter. His tough year should keep the price reasonable - Adding two SPs is going to take a hefty chunk out of the farm, so I'd forego adding relief help. Not that we couldn't always use more, but the current group is doing quite well as is. And on top of that by adding both Cabrera and Gallen, you ensure both Brown and Horton are relief options at the end of the year, which should make up for that reliever we don't add via trade
  25. Bertz
    I know he only went 40 pitches but Jordan Wicks is going to be a big problem for opposing hitters if he's sitting 94.
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