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Bertz

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Everything posted by Bertz

  1. Bertz
    Lol that March 25th start date is purely there to set the deadline to resolve the CBA earlier. Honestly savvy move on Manfred to manage up.
  2. Bertz
    The Brewers are clearly the smartest team in the league, they're the new Rays and have been for the better part of 5 years. But even the smartest team in the league is still only stacking 53/47 type bets, they're not omniscient.
  3. Bertz
    Curious if this is "we think we can fix him" or "we're pretty worried about Harrison's elbow"
  4. Bertz
    It's not perfect, but a decent rule of thumb for identifying buyers vs. sellers is playoff odds above/below 10%ish Currently the teams below that line are AL - Royals, A's, Angels NL - Nats, Mets, Reds, Giants, Rockies The Padres are really close (12%) but AJ Preller is a sociopath so I wouldn't expect them to sell unless they really tank the next few weeks. The O's, Jays, Tigers, Astros, and Dbacks are also under 30%, so a bad two weeks would likely tip their scales towards selling.
  5. Bertz
    Regular reminder that all offenses streak and slump, even the good ones. You just don't notice because you don't watch those teams every day
  6. Bertz
    You joke but I mean the only thing this guy brings to the table is access, so you do have to wonder
  7. Bertz
    Vodnik is a great idea, I'd be really into seeing what he can do outside of Coors The bullpen is in a weird spot. Right now it's clearly short multiple bodies, but there's several guys (presumably) due back from injury plus potential contributions from the kids. You dont want to load up with JAGs, but there's also no guarantee e.g Palencia and Brown don't have setbacks. I think the right balance is to add one veteran closer or closer adjacent arm, and then add a guy or guys with MiLB options who you can move out of the way assuming the team convelesces properly. None of these three guys are closer adjacent, or even really close, but Vodnik and Winn are optionable. Vodnik has monstrous stuff. It's worth seeing if some combo of coaching and getting him out of Coors can get the command to at least respectable. I assume even if he's fixable he'd need an offseason, but still worth having in the pen for a few weeks before it gets back to being full strength. Maybe you grt lucky and can fix him in the fly.
  8. Bertz
    Craig also doesn't have a Twitter as far as I can tell
  9. Bertz
    Someone's still salty about being fed false Gallen rumors
  10. Bertz
    The tools, especially the arm, are very good. But he's only been a catcher for a few years so he's rough around the edges.
  11. Bertz
    Exactly. Like there were multiple points last year where Owen Caissie probably could have come up and simply got passed over. It felt like they wanted to keep him down at Iowa raking and preserve trade value. They finally called him up post TDL when it was clear that ship had sailed and it would have been conspicuous to hold him down longer. Kepley is who I most have in mind when I wrote that if I'm being honest.
  12. Bertz
    Sooooooo FWIW I would take guys who ought to be promoted and whether or not they actually get promoted as decently strong signal for who the team is trying to spend in trade.
  13. Bertz
    Mooney had a rundown of the various injured pitchers in his latest article https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7441288/2026/07/12/cubs-all-star-break-more-pitching-trade-deadline/ I'm doing some inferring, but broadly it sounds like Taillon - Back next weekend Palencia - Supposed to start throwing bullpens after the break, so let's say back right around the TDL? Cabrera - Supposed to "ramp up his throwing program" in late July, so let's say back half of August for him Steele - Won't be throwing off a mound until early August, so probably September Brown - No timetable given, but Craig was uncharacteristically emphatic he's not done for the year. Sounds like he's probably going to come back as a reliever Harvey - Sounds like his arm is still a bit achey, so they're at the point they're just saying horsefeathers and going to see if he can work through it. I suspect it'll be one of those where he has "rules" like no back-to-backs, has to pitch if he warms up, starts innings clean, etc.
  14. Bertz
    I wrote this yesterday Feels like Townsend is clearly Tier 2, I'd probably have him 6th in the org overall Sorrell and Bailey clearly Tier 3. I'd probably have them right next to each other 9th/10th? Behind Kepley/Wing but ahead of Sanders/Caple? Jasa, Blomker, and Morton in Tier 4. Maybe this order: Beck, McGwire, Cepeda, Jasa, Southisene, Reid, Blomker, Morton? This actually brings us to a nice even Top 20. Barring some intel we have not yet seen no one else would make a top 30 IMO. Pretty big drop from Morton to Marionneaux and the rest of the gaggle of new college pitchers.
  15. Bertz
  16. Bertz
    And worth really underscoring they are an averageish farm right now after graduating Mo (consenus top 50 prospect), Alcantara (divisive but top 50 on FG and with Klaw), and Pedro Ramirez (clear top 100 guy at the time of his callup). Wiggins and Conrad's injuries have been the biggest negative story on the farm this year, beyond that like you said it's been Long/Triantos faceplanting. Way way way more good news than bad.
  17. Bertz
    The plan appears to have been another pitcher at 62 but when Sorrell was still there they said horsefeathers it and took him
  18. Bertz
    From an LSU account So more Mule than wing but still significant
  19. Bertz
    I presume whatever bonus baby they're saving for will come right away in round 5. Round 11 was a spot spot historically because of the shift to non-guaranteed slot, but also the simple logistics of having an evening to work the phones and such. Ending last night on Marrioneaux was also IMO a way to go into this break period with as much cash as possible and huddle about options. Go into round 5 with as much cash as you can, shoot your shot, then you have rounds 6-10 to take seniors if your target ended up taking you over budget. If they don't do anything super fun it's IMO a sign that Bailey cost an arm and a leg.
  20. Bertz
    Only 26 games, but Bailey hit .363/582/.913. That's a .550 ISO (!!!). As a sophomore. And this is at Florida State he wasn't just beating up on D3 kids or anything
  21. Bertz
    Jose Silva just randomly showing up one day with no one knowing who he is or what his deal is and casually OPSing 1.000 as a 19 year old. What the hell.
  22. Bertz
    https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/gamefeed?date=4/24/2026&gamePk=816517&chartType=pitch&legendType=pitchName&playerType=pitcher&inning=&count=&pitchHand=&batSide=&descFilter=&ptFilter=&resultFilter=&hf=playerBreakdown&sportId=11&liveAb=#816517 He actually was at Iowa for two games randomly in April. The linked game above he threw 54 pitches, so presumably he's pretty close to this as a full SP. 95.3, with 17 inches of IVB and 6 inches of gloveside run. I'm not a pitch shape expert but I believe that's good vert and average horizontal movement. And it all plays up because of the stupid amount of extension he gets for being so tall. That's the differentiator here.
  23. Bertz
    Angel Cepeda dong! He's really turning it on, great to see him get his legs under him at this level.
  24. Bertz
    This is the thing that's so interesting. Because on the surface a guy unranked by the various pubs with an upper 80's fastball is clearly a huge underslot. Like even as a Jr. instead of a Sr. you're thinking he probably doesn't even get 6 figures? But those big programs all targeting him, and in the NIL era? He's obviously not getting $600k slot but I'm not so sure the Cubs are saving a half million on him like I otherwise would be.
  25. Bertz
    Four Eyes is 2/2 with a triple and a sac fly I'm watching him really closely now, what a fascinating story
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