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Bertz

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Everything posted by Bertz

  1. Bertz
    He'd need to cut his groundball rate substantially without breaking anything else. Doesn't seem likely but at the rate he's developing....
  2. Bertz
    Stupidly early but Pedro Ramirez has a 90.5% contact rate and a 24.1% chase rate. For MLB comparison those are 99th percentile and 72nd percentile respectively. He also, if we cheat and look back to ST, has a 113 MPH max exit velocity, which is 69th percentile. Whatever Pedro did this winter worked because we increasingly appear to have some sort of Nico Hoerner / Steven Kwan hybrid on our hands
  3. Bertz
    Through 6 games Cubs Batters: 21.5% K, 13.2% BB Cubs Pitchers: 28.2% K, 8.8% BB
  4. Bertz
    Kevin Alcantara has - 13 balls in play this season - 7 hit 100+ MPH - 6 of THOSE are in the air - NONE of THOSE have a launch angle above 25 degrees (30+ is when you start getting into too high territory) It's 5 games. He's been in AAA for a bit. But this is still fun, exactly what you'd ask for.
  5. Bertz
    He would have been one of the top regression candidates you'd pick coming into this year and he's clearly saying ABSOLUTELY NOT
  6. Bertz
    Spin looks about the same. 2169 for the 4 seamer 2153 for the sinker. Although that's its own tell, from looking at a handful of other sinkerballers (Logan Webb, Luis Castillo, Kyle Hendricks) the difference is usually higher by a lot more, Logan Webb was a couple hundred for instance. So on a relative basis I'd say you're right it has a good bit more spin. The show tends to have damn near every pitch name available, and the way the make it matter is they use it is to break out which direction it moves. For instance if you look at a clock a running fastball would move towards 3 o clock, a 2-seamer towards 4 o clock, and a sinker towards 5 o clock. But realistically to your point those are all just variations of the same pitch.
  7. Bertz
    The sinker is also interesting because it doesn't really sink it just goes sideways. If you play MLB the Show it's a Running Fastball more than a sinker. I assume that's why it doesn't lose any velo? And then it looks like on the 4 seamer he traded a smidge of run for a little more rise, which helps separate the two Really fascinating how the sinker appears to have tied everything together.
  8. Bertz
    It looks like Stuff+ is all aboard the Ben Brown hype train. All four of Brown's pitches grade out above average, and his overall Stuff+ score is 111, which for reference would have tied him with Zack Wheeler last year . Generally Cubs pitchers have not fared well via Stuff+. Even the guys we have who do rack up strikeouts have flashed on PitchingBot (Fangraphs other stuff model) but not Stuff+. It doesn't necessarily mean a ton but I thought it stood out looking over Brown's page.
  9. Bertz
    Similar conditions to last night
  10. Bertz
    It's early enough that even peripherals are meaningless, but realistically the only players to this point with anything scary going on under the hood are Conforto and Taillon. And to his credit even Taillon got plenty of swing and miss last night, which is generally what I'd worry about with his velocity evaporating.
  11. Bertz
    Noland pitched early in ST a couple times and had some extra juice on his fastball. Curious to see how much of that survived being fully stretched out. Noland was at 90.3 MPH last year. Especially since his primary fastball is a cutter just getting up to 91 and change probably makes him big league viable.
  12. Bertz
    ^Me in a month to the prospect writers who dropped Alcantara below horsefeathering Kane Kepley on their lists
  13. Bertz
    Next Friday against Pitt feels like the smart money. Maybe Wednesday in Tampa with the built in Thursday off day?
  14. Bertz
    The thing with Taillon is he was already the worst projected member of the starting 5 coming into the spring. In fact generally he projects behind Brown/Wicka/Assad too. So any signal that "hey this guy is materially worse than your (already low) expectations" is a bright red flag. He also looked pretty bad in his WBC start against Panama. He kept runs off the board because it's a glorified AA team but that undercuts any sort of "savvy veteran saving his bullets / waiting for adrenaline" type excuse. The team has alluded to a lower body issue, and he's got a lengthy history of those. He also looked like himself the first two innings of his last ST start, and Counsell said he faded later in the outing because of the heat (pretty reasonable excuse TBH). There's a chance this was much ado about nothing and alarm bells were raised over a fairly normal thing that we suddenly received transparency into this year. So like of course give him a chance, frankly give him at least a couple, but the leash can't be especially long.
  15. Bertz
    Less surprising after all the run he got in Spring Training but Hartshorn too. It wouldn't have been a huge shock to wait until May. Lovich and Southisene were on that timeline last year. I'm annoyed at the South Bend infield. Southisene and Mathis should be up there. Escobar probably too, though maybe this is confirmation Escobar going to tbe outfield is more about his deficiency rather than deference to other guys.
  16. Bertz
    Hopefully Taillon’s fixed whatever issues he had and can hold his normal velo for a full game. If not it's lined up for us get a lot of Ben Brown tonight
  17. Bertz
    The Cubs last year had 23 starts where the SP generated 15 or more whiffs. They have 3 already thia year, and Boyd's 20 from OD would have ranked #1 last year. People are wringing their hands about the dongs but the non-Taillon rotation is looking as good as you could hope for IMO.
  18. Bertz
    It's still probably nothing but Rea randomly started getting a bunch more swing and miss last September and then low and behold it happened again tonight. Really like the three inning saves to rest the bullpen. Hope Craig is aggressive with Rea and Brown having outings like this.
  19. Bertz
    EXTREMELY early but 3 BBs and 1 K for Alcantara makes me happy
  20. Bertz
    lmao Velo is down a bit. Averaging a hair under 96. Curious if that's early season stuff or if he's dialed down a bit to throw more strikes
  21. Bertz
    Would seem to point to the Tampa or Pitt series for him to come back if there are no setbacks.
  22. Bertz
    Probably not ideal with Shota pitching
  23. Bertz
    Irvin had a good spring training, but nothing from it looks especially notable to shift your priors on him. This game is about Shota.
  24. Bertz
  25. Bertz
    Speaking of pitchers who look to have their pre-surgery velo back Luke Little. He was 93-96 today, which is a tick below what he was at his peak but up a good bit from last year. Also worth noting he was primarily throwing sinkers, which is a new wrinkle for him (and probably explains a portion of the still missing velo).
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