Bertz

What a stupid June 2025 Brewers ass win

I'd actually lean towards Alcantara being different than the guys we have on hand as being a plus in the FO's mind rather than a minus. One of the biggest differences between the Hoyer Cubs and the Theo Cubs is the lineup diversity. I'd also note that defense seems to win out vs. contact (looking at you, Dansby). That suspect that matters more Re: Alcantara vs. Shaw than either vs. Pedro though. As a switch hitting infielder he feels like he's a really good compliment to the current roster and wins any sort of fit debate almost by default.

Abbott pitched that game last May where the Cubs were hitting 100+ MPH lasers all over the field and got jack to show for it. That and the game in Toronto against Scherzer were the biggest tough luck losses of the year.

I suspect Pedro's bat and glove would be adequate in LF but not something you'd actively want out there. So as a super-sub that's great, he would compliment Shaw and especially Alcantara really well. And he'd also be good insurance in case one flat out fails. But I don't think he can be plan A. At least not in the next year or so.

Reds are total frauds. Elly/Greene/Burns is as good of a trio as you'll find on any roster in the league, but the depth is just not there at all. Abbott's better than this, though not especially scary. He was very much a beneficiary of good fortune last year. He's probably a Taillon/Rea tier pitcher. Probably due for a good game but also we should touch him up.

In the short term I think Alcantara has to be parked at Iowa. There's just not playing time for him unless/until there’s an injury or Shaw goes into a tailspin. It's also worth noting that he appears to still be developing, as the season progresses he is slowly clawing back the contact rate he sacrificed to juice his launch angle. Fingers crossed that trend continues. Medium-long term I think Alcantara fits into the puzzle with the glut of infielders, and I'm hoping they find a way to keep him. This winter you have Happ, Suzuki, and Kelly all hitting free agency. So that's two full time outfield spots, plus whatever DH time is freed up by Mo presumably getting more time behind the plate. You can't expect to hand all of that time off to the kids, but you can probably do 2/3s? I think broadly there's a choice between Shaw and Alcantara for a full time OF spot, and then there's a choice between Shaw and Pedro Ramirez for the supersub role Shaw's currently in. I'd probably go Alcantara/Ramirez, though there's a lot of time for that to change. But broadly I envision something like this: Out: Happ, Kelly, Conforto, Shaw (trade) In: Suzuki (extended), Alcantara, Ramirez, another veteran LHH OFer Again it's too early to get hung up on specifics but I really like the range of skills adding Alcantara and Ramirez to the roster brings, and at the same time I suspect Shaw would bring back a pitching haul.

106 win pace by the way

Setting aside that I think the talk around CBA round is just a lot of hot air, damn near every FA SP of note signed before the shutdown last go around. Stroman was the last impact guy standing and we got him right at the wire.

This is a really good writeup, and as certain pubs resort more and more to hyperbole I appreciate the nuanced takes grounded in reality, both good and bad I think this gets to the heart of it There are a number of guys who are arrow up in April but who have probably not done enough long enough to warrant a full grade change. It's easy to see how heading into the draft this could already be back to being an average to above average system. Also this farm is screaming for another 2022 style draft. Four picks in the top 100 and at least three of them should be pitchers IMO.

I have no idea what the Reds were thinking not lining up Burns to pitch in this series.

The nice thing about something like a barrel is it's a process stat. Generally dongs are ~half of barrels. So Kevin should probably be closer to 8 than 12, and I'd guess that gap is the silly AAA environment. But even at 8 we're talking a 39 homer pace. Like the contact numbers are definitely a problem, full stop. But a Christopher Morel type bat from a legitimate CF is an impact player. Or put another way I don't see any reason to think Alcantara can't be what Adolis Garcia was in his prime. There's definitely a fine line between patience and passitivity, and at the top of the ladder swinging 37% of the time like Mathis leans towards the latter. But also it's A ball and guys tend to not miss close, so if you have a good eye you probably should be well below an acceptable MLB rate. Like you're not going to lose money betting against every RHH 1B prospect, but complaining about what Mathis is doing at the plate right now feels kind of

Statcast minor league search has barrels. Kevin Alcantara is at 16, which is 3rd at the AAA level and would be tied for 11th at the big league level. His barrel rate of 25% is also 3rd in MiLB and would also be 3rd in the majors. He's always hit the piss out of the ball, and always had contact issues. This year he's basically traded Dansby Swanson levels of swing and miss with a too high groundball rate for Christopher Morel levels of swing and miss with a great groundball rate. I think it's probably a good trade, and his contact numbers are slowly trending back up so I wouldn't slam the door on the possibility of us having our cake and eating it too.

He's got an above average contact rate and a 16% walk rate so this is a pretty clear case of being in a lot of deep counts. 4.2 pitches per plate appearance.

Among the many impressive things he's doing, Cole Mathis running a ~25% groundball rate is probably the craziest.

59.5 homer pace by the way

105 win pace by the way

I wonder if we get word on Thielbar soon. It sounded like when they IL'd him they were hoping for something close to a minimum lenth stay, which would have him back next weekend.

Situation worth monitoring: Ronald Acuna left tonight's Braves game with a hamstring injury and we play Atlanta in Atlanta in a week and a half

I'm torn between being excited for a good thing and being suspicious of the timing. Why didn't they just do this over the Monday system-wide off day?

No Nico. Wouldn't be surprised if they give him until the Reds game Monday night.

That's just because of Pete. In pretty much any org besides here or Boston he's a no doubt CF. This is what FG said about him over the offseason Here's MLB And here's Keith Law

Do we know where Will Sanders is? Feels clearly injury at this point but curious about degree.

It hasn't translated into boffo production yet but Mathis' peripheral numbers are sterling even after the jump to SB.

I know he's not his brother but Alexis Hernandez is supposed to be relatively tooled up, right? Like if he starts producing we should get excited?