Bertz

The owners are floating a cap because this round of negotations they're the ones on the defensive. The league wants to make radical changes to centralize broadcast rights. The league wants to kick off expansion. The players want...incremental improvements to things like the luxury tax limit? The owners are talking about the salary cap so that they can "settle" for status quo plus favorable terms on those two hot items. It's super transparent.

It's no secret that heading into the playoffs, starting pitching was the Chicago Cubs' biggest area of concern. Initial indications from the local writers are that impact pitching will be the biggest focus this offseason, with Dylan Cease the first specific name to hit the rumor mill via Bruce Levine. Cease is generally considered to be one of the "Big 3" free agent starters this winter, along with Framber Valdez and Ranger Suarez. Cease's career has been marred by a good deal of inconsistency, but he's been a model of health (leads MLB in games started the past 5 years) and is one of the hardest-throwing pitchers in the league (one of only 10 pitchers in 2025 to throw 100 IP and average more than 97 MPH on his fastball). Most days, he looks the part of a prototypical ace. While a starting pitcher set to get north of $150M is not usually what we think of for a Jed Hoyer target, the team enters 2026 with relatively few roster holes. The Cubs also have an extensive history with Cease. They initially drafted Dylan in 2014 (along with Kyle Schwarber and Justin Steele), and based on reporting from NorthsideBaseball's own Matt Trueblood the team had extensive conversations with the Padres around reacquiring Cease last spring. Expect the Cubs to be tied to a wide variety of arms this winter. But given the team's roster heading into the winter and their history with Dylan Cease, it is notable that this is the first rumor out of the chute this offseason. View full rumor

Official(ish?)

You know who I realized might be an absolute perfect fit for this roster? Alec Bohm. He is NOT a savior, he would function as a 10th man. But his skillset I think compliments the current roster extremely well and fills a lot of gaps. Consider: - Bohm is a 3B by trade, but has plenty of 1B experience. He has a little bit of DH experience too and has hit well in that role in limited time - Over the last three years Bohm has a 108 wRC+, 99 vs. RHP and 130 vs LHP. So basically he is a guy you really really want in the lineup vs. LHP, and you're fine with playing against RHP - So you'd play Bohm every day against LHP, and whether that is at 1B or DH can change fairly organically based on how much leash against LHP Busch earns - If Shaw struggles, you have a ready to go replacement. Not only do we not otherwise have a backup plan at 3b at the MLB level right now, we don't have one at Iowa either. (Pedro Ramirez might be that guy around mid season?) - If god forbid Hoerner or Swanson get hurt, Bohm could backfill via moving Shaw to 2B. This is quietly a biggy! As is the team needs a backup infielder, but because playing time is likely to be so sparse no one decent will want to sign here for just that role - It is an open secret that the Phillies don't want Bohm anymore. He's definitely available and you'd guess the trade cost wouldn't be exhorbitant Basically Bohm is good enough and established enough that you would trust him to play everyday. He has a specific skill (hitting LHP) that you're excited to use situationally. He is however not so good or so established that you have to feel obligated to run him out there everyday if he's not looking like one of your top 9. It's really tough to thread the needle of giving the kids playing time while not leaving yourself vulnerable if they fail. This feels like it accomplishes that really well.

So on the one hand, you look at this lineup and it's not great that the second best source of RHH power is either Dansby Swanson or whoever is catching that day. On the other hand. while it's not your focus here regarding handedness, it is worth noting that even without a major power threat the team should continue to be dangerous against LHP. Each of Suzuki, Swanson, Hoerner, Kelly, snd Shaw had a wRC+ of at least 125 against lefties. Everyone but Shaw, who wasn't yet a big leaguer, did it in '24 as well. Add a complimentary RHH bat to the 1B/DH/RF mix (Paul Goldschmidt?) and give some of PCA's playing time against lefties to Alcantara and you've got a deep lineup for LHP to navigate. On yet another hand I mostly hate this class of FA bats. I want no part of Suarez or Alonso, and Bregman/Bichette aren't really power guys. Maybe there's a trade option worth considering (Taylor Ward??), but if we're sticking with FA either think small or go all the way for Tucker IMO. No half measures.

I hope you're wrong on Kittredge. I just don't see a situation where it makes sense to let him leave. The team probably needs 3, maybe even 4 relievers this winter? And that's legit guys not waiver wire types. Especially knowing how much Jed turns his nose up at multi-year deals for relievers, you're not going to find a better deal than Kittredge at 1/8. If the team is wanting to fill the bullpen on a shoestring, Kittredge plus a couple Caleb Thielbar sized signings is probably the way to go about it. If the team is wanting to invest in the pen more this year, then 1/8 isn’t really prohibitive as one of two or dare I say even three signinhs of guys at this level. Letting Kittredge go feels like mystery box thinking where we end up with like Emilio Pagan instead.

It's a bit tough. Because I agree I think Alcantara is very good fit to the bench and compliments the other options well. But on the other hand there's a ton of quality veteran platoon outfielders on this market but at 1B Goldschmidt is basically the only righty who's even vaguely attractive. I wonder if supply/demand ends up pushing Long onto the roster..

Yeah I read a couple of Longenhagen reports on the various Asia imports and they all sounded like they were written ahead of 2025. It may have been a one year blip. Eric did mention it was only 200ish pitches, so like the equivalent of 50-70 at bats?

This can't be right. The Rockies are apparently going to hire a normal, well qualified GM?

I don't understand why people talk about Shaw's bat like he's Austin Hedges or something

Eric Longenhagen's scouting report. The bold very much made me raise an eyebrow. We know the Cubs like that profile. I think more or less what Hot Sauce said, if you're looking for him to be deluxe Justin Turner let's talk, but he does not sound like a starting caliber bat.

I didnt realize this. And there's not a ton of prospects to add either, I'm counting maybe 5 that you could even consider? Get ready for absolutely insane levels of reliever waiver wire roulette.

Rea reminds me of Tauchman last year. "$3M for a high end fourth outfielder is an easy yes! Sure he doesn't fit on the roster anymore but you can easily get a little something back in trade!" Then I had to clean the egg off my face as he got nontendered and had to take a pay cut to latch on with the White Sox. $6M for a solid 4th/5th starter is on its face a positive expected value contract. That said if the team is wanting to let Tucker walk and level up the pitching staff (which is certainly where the vibes point) you probably care more about that roster spot than the $2-3M in surplus value Rea's club option theoretically affords you. It's not a slam dunk, but I'm going to view the Rea decision as a tea leaf for whether the team is planning to put its resources primarily towards offense or pitching this winter.

My guess would be that one of Alcantara/Long is on next year's bench, and the other is not in the org next year because of trade. Put another way I expect the bench next year to be Amaya / Alcantara / Veteran RHH 1B (Paul Goldschmidt type) / Veteran Infielder (Jon Berti type) or Amaya / Long / Veteran RHH OF (Rob Refsnyder type) / Veteran Infielder (Jon Berti type)

It's funny you mention Garver because I feel like that's probably the ideal outcome for Ballesteros, right? 30ish games behind the plate (maybe pair him with one dedicated SP?), 100ish at DH, and maybe a dozen at 1B. That's insanely valuable as you look at constructing a roster. I do think it's probably a good time for the org to really ask how comfortable they are with Mo behind the plate. Because realistically if you completely give up on having him catch he's more or less Josh Naylor. Quality player but not someone who will make you rue the day he left. In fact if you shut the door on catching right now how much daylight is there really between Mo and Jonny Long? Not nearly enough to pass up on using Ballesteros to headline a Mackenzie Gore trade that's for damn sure.

I'd be pretty shocked by a lefty like Yaz. A righty like Refsnyder, Austin Hays, Ramon Laureano, etc. makes a ton of sense. These guys are ideally platoon bats but can probably float you to at least the deadline if the kids fail and they need to play every day. But as much as I do agree there's a little bit of a vibe that the team doesn't believe in Caissie, I'd be shocked if they bring in a LHH outfielder/1B/DH type unless it's Tucker. Even if Caissie's dealt you probably want platoon help for Mo. Long's a reverse splits type and I suspect Alcantara's bat, even against lefties, is an upgrade over PCA but not one you'd consider DH caliber.

I don't that's just a lot to do. There are currently four starting caliber hitters and two or three starting pitchers (depending on how Shota's situation shakes out) heading into free agency. None of those guys except Hoerner are way underpaid, so by no means is it going to be impossible to navigate. But it's going to be complicated, and adding "retain or replace the best pitcher in baseball" ratchets up the difficulty significantly. If Jed goes to the winter meetings with "6 Starting Pitcher WAR" on his shopping list this is a year where I'd prefer a guy who's going to give you 3 each of the next two years rather than 6 up front. Next year? Hell yeah please do another Tucker type trade. This year give me some bridge guys.

I'm happy to do a Tucker trade most years, but adding a walk year player of that stature on top of what we've already got slated for FA doesn't sit right with me. We'd be talking nearly 25 WAR walking out the door next winter.

I suspect the team will beg Mcguire to go back to Iowa, he'll say no, and then he'll be nontendered. That's by far the most likely outcome here. That said I could see three somewhat unlikely scenarios where he's kept around: 1. The team is ending Ballesteros' tenure behind the plate. This wouldn't be a shocking decision, but it would be shocking timing. That said he does have a pretty good track at the open DH spot, and maybe they don't want him splitting his attention ("don't half ass two things, whole ass one thing") 2. The team is trading Ballesteros. I suspect he's the least likely of the Iowa 4 to head out, but it is very likely Jed trades from that stash 3. The team is trading Amaya. Might actually be a savvy move? He's clearly made of glass, the measurable aspects of his defense are below average, and it's still reasonably likely that his bat isn't very good (despite spanning two years his offensive breakout is only ~250 PAs)

Jed's never going to turn into Dave Dombrowski, but you can't just assume he'll operate the exact same way every single offseason. This is pretty easily the best team he's had heading into an offseason before. On tops of that he has more money to play with than he has since the Swanson/Bellinger/Taillon winter and more young talent on hand than he's had ever. More $$ and fewer holes to fill allows you to operate differently. We saw this last winter with the Tucker trade and also the near signing of Tanner Scott. I'm not going to put a stake in the ground for a specific guy, but this is not going to be a winter where the team just adds a $15M starting pitcher and a bunch of $5M relievers. Team context matters a ton.

Also not to he one of those "every Japanese guy goes to the Dodgers" types but it is nice that neither the Dodgers or Yankees seem set to chase after 9 figure contract SPs this winter. Cubs were seemingly in on Yamamoto when he was gonna get ~$200M, and noped out when it skyrocketed from there. Unless the Mets are particularly enamored with Imai his contract probably stays more reasonable.