Bertz

Teoscar Hernandez's defense makes me angry and I don't even like the Dodgers. If he was our right fielder I'd lose my mind.

I think there's a little bit of a chess match thing going on. You don't want Scherzer facing lefties but also you bring in a lefty for Muncy and then they have to face Teo and Edman which is scary. Scherzer being a certified psychopath probably helps make the decision for you.

Do we know what title she got with the Mets? I assume she got a pretty nifty promotion. Assistant hitting coach at the big league level? Or maybe something in the Farm Director neighborhood?

The smart money in basically any year is "right at the luxury tax line, probably a smidge under". That has been where payroll has defaulted under Tom. The exceptions have been when A) the team has been bad B) right after COVID C) circa 2015ish when the team had so many pre arb salaries they practically couldn't spend more D) 2019 when they actually went way past the line. Clearly that's a number of exceptions, but more years than not they've hugged the LT line. For that reason I tend to think in terms of luxury tax dollars rather than 26 man payroll dollars. But ballpark it there's usually about a $25M in difference between the two. So $244M as the LT line, minus $25M to convert LT dollars to 26 man dollars, minus a little bit for in season moves, and I think that $200-210M range is right expectation for opening day payroll, with the team likely crossing $211M during the season. If you want to be optimistic, I think this year makes more sense than most to blow it out a little bit. A decent length playoff run is a good windfall, and there's incentive to try and push for another next year. On top of that, generally if you spike payroll you're realistically committing to doing it for a few years. Reason being there's only so many 1 year deals you can fit onto a roster. But with 2027 payroll currently looking something like $80M, you could add 3-4 meaningful multi-year deals and still open next offseason in good shape to navigate the LT. Again I'm not counting on it, but it feels more likely than most years.

https://www.thecubreporter.com/cubs-40-man-roster Some Arizona Phil things IMO worth noting, mostly with regard to minor league options - Alcantara does have one more option (Phil has maintained this since last year, but it doesn't show up everywhere) - Eli Morgan apparently has another option remaining (I could have sworn he only had one coming into the year)? Makes the decision to keep him much easier. Gavin Hollowell also received an extra one, so I'd expect him to hold onto his 40 man spot as well - Javier Assad somehow still has two option years remaining? Nominally increases his value - I don't think any of these ones are surprises. but all of Roberts, Neely, Hodge, and Little have at least one option remaining. So expect them to survive any 40 man purge events over the next few months as well - Ben Brown only has one option, while Wicks and (as mentioned above Assad) each have two. Doesn't force any drastic decisions, but if youre going to go into ST expecting one of these guys to take the long relief role, it does give Brown a slight leg up IMO

I mentioned this elsewhere w/r/t Alec Bohm but I think a semi full time player who can play the infield corners and mash lefties is a glove perfect fit for this roster. - While Busch has earned some more leash against LHP, he definitely needs some righty support. Whatever combo of Mo/Caissie backfills Tucker will certainly need that RHH support - I'm not too worried about Shaw, but you're generally on bust watch with any young player until they reach ~1000 PAs. And we do not have a good 3B backfill at Iowa unless you think Long can play there (seems doubtful). - This team needs a backup middle infielder. But because Swanson and Hoerner are so good and so durable you're really going to be relegated to scraps in free agency. A strong backup at 3B also indirectly provides a strong middle infield backup via moving Shaw to 2B - Adding some LF flexibility to the mix only makes the fit stronger, as Ian Happ is merely adequate against LHP I'm generally in "no half measures" mode on the position player side of the ball this winter. Either bring Tucker back or just fiddle with the bench and go hard on improving the pitching staff. But having someone who *could* be an everyday 3B but doesn't *have* to be an everyday 3B is kind of perfect. So if the team believes in Okamoto's bat I think I'd be down.

If Jonny Long ends up being legit I would consider last year's AFL to have been his coming out party. He had already been raking at Tenn but we actually got measurement and scouting reports when he went to AZ. I also tend to think what Kilian did in the AFL was legit and that he backed up after. Though considering he was ultimately a bust that distinction doesn't necessarily matter much.

I think this is right on. I'd also say he could be a placeholder for a better team. Like take the Phillies. They have Andrew Painter, who they clearly want to be their future ace. But he did not show enough in AAA this year to warrant a spot in MLB to open next year. Assad is the type of guy you could nominally have as your 5th starter but who is easy to cast aside as soon as you feel good about Painter.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6761320/2025/10/29/chicago-cubs-craig-counsell-staff-changes/ Cubs have only lost one guy on the coaching staff. Alex Smith who did some of the game prep planning work. Sounds like they're bracing to lose Ryan Flaherty as well (I've read elsewhere he's the favorite for the Padres job). Nice to finally have some consistency eith the hitting group.

The past two years the Dodgers did this "build the whole pitching staff out of uber talented uber fragile players" gambit. Last year it blew up in their faces and they won the world series anyway. This year the stars aligned and everyone but Scott and Yates entered October healthy and it looks like they're going to fall short. As a loud and proud "playoffs are a crapshoot" guy it still feels a little too on the nose.

Sadly it wouldn't be the first time. Ian Anderson comes to mind.

Assad feels like trade bait this winter. The fact that he didn't make the postseason roster was IMO a clear indication of where the club falls on the results/peripherals debate with him. And I think if you're trying to get more swing and miss onto the staff replacing Assad at swingman with a combo of Wicks and particularly Brown is some low hanging fruit. I also think Assad is not without value. Even if you want to give him zero credit for his Houdini antics, the mere fact that he has another minor league option has value. I think it's also fair to wonder if you can get his velo back above 93 with some conditioning work. Luck aside Assad actually pitched pretty solidly in '23.

That early season South Bend lineup is gonna be wild next year. Something like this? 2B - Southisene CF - Kepley 1B - Mathis DH - Conrad SS - Cepeda RF - Lumpuy C - Ayers 3B - Melendez LF - Escobar That's hella fun. Conrad aside probably not as much raw talent as the group that's currently on the MLB/AAA border, but still an exciting group.

"Who needs prospects?" is a weird takeaway from watching this Blue Jays squad

I think it's mostly defense? Since he became a full time SP here are where his teams have ranked defensively '21 - 29th '22 - 22nd '23 - 25th '24 - 20th '25 - 19th Because his xERAs are also sparkling, so it's definitely not a hard contact thing a la Ben Brown. I also kind of wonder how much of it is regression from his insane '22. Like again if you look at his numbers over his 5 full seasons things have mostly evened out: ERA - 3.72 xERA - 3.43 FIP - 3.37 xFIP- 3.65 Keeping in mind the defenses he's played in front of that's about what you'd expect.

This but for Roki Sasaki's splitter

With Tom being put out to pasture there might be some actual competition here. I assume LBiittner took it with his crash oit but it's not a slam dunk

Pros/Cons for targeting Cease specifically: Pros - His high octane fastball and oodles of strikeouts are something the current staff doesn't have a lot of. Hell even with all of the good pitchers we've had over the last 15 years I'm not sure we've had a guy like this since Wood? - Horton and Brown have some Dylan Cease to them. Wiggins has a ton. We generally think of finesse guys as the "extra coach" but Cease is probably better prepared to mentor our best young arms than like Ranger Suarez is - Longterm investments on any pitcher are fraught, but AFAIK harder throwers have softer aging curves - Based on the Contract Crowdsourcing articles Fangraphs started launching this AM it looks like Cease is the best projected arm in this class by an ever so narrow margin - Dude can rock a pretty killer mustache Cons - You're likely paying a premium for strikeouts that doesn't necessarily manifest in saved runs. Maybe that's worth it now that you're expecting to play every October? But you're probably going to have to give an Aaron Nola or Max Fried contract to Cease as opposed to something more like Kevin Gausman money to Shane Bieber. You're likely going to lose a high level $/WAR calc, so you need to have conviction that some of these extracurricular rationales are valid and worthwhile - There's some Blake Snell there when he's not on his A game, and I mean that derogatorily - Cease's mustache success made him mistakenly think he should be a beard guy, which is where we are currently. Some intervention is required which is a delicate convo to have while simultaneously trying to woo him

"Swing and miss stuff" isn't a position on a baseball roster so you're not really making the point you think you are. The Cubs absolute needs for this winter are a bench bat or two and a handful of relievers (though notably not a closer). Depending on how things shake out with Shota maybe one SP. They have by even the most conservative estimate about $60M available to spend. There are fewer roster holes than any offseason in the Jed era, and more resources available than any winter save maybe the '22/'23 offseason. Not to say that the Cubs are going to have some billion dollar offseason (or even that they'll definitely go hard after Cease), but the roster lends itself to shopping pretty differently than prior winters. Much the same way that a trip to the grocery store two days after pay day is a lot different than a trip two days before.

I'm going to be a broken record about this but an offseason for a team that just won 92 games is going to be a lot different than a team that just won 83 games. A team that's more or less complete from the jump is going to operate differently than one with gaping holes at CF, 3B, and C.