Bertz

The way I see it, the needs are pretty clearly a lefty setup guy and a competent Almora type. Watson and Pillar fit those to a T but those are common enough profiles that specific names don't matter a ton. While unlikely given the logistics of each additional transaction, I would like an upgrade at DH and a longer term pen piece. I've mentioned Michael Brantley before for DH, and I think the appeal is obvious. I mean look at this lineup: Brantley (DH) Happ Bryant Rizzo Contreras Schwarber Baez Heyward/Pillar Kipnis/Hoerner Miguel Castro is a pen arm I'm REALLY high on. He's always had unreal stuff, and this year basically started throwing more first pitch strikes and traded a little vertical movement for horizontal movement on his slider. The ERA is still ugly, but the Ks and BBs have really gone in the right direction in addition to his already elite ground all rate. He'd also be around for two more years after this.

Not sure how Underwood survived this transaction. In case they need length out of the pen prior to Saturday? Holding off until they know what 40 man machinations they need for the deadline? Or do they really still see something worth keeping there?

The Brewers schtick the last few years has been: A) One hell of a middle of the order B) A bullpen of doom C) An impressive ability to find which journeyman position players are going to dead cat bounce Father time has taken the fangs out of A. B is still kicking (where the hell did Devin Williams come from?!?), but in a 60 game season the ability to leverage it is reduced. We saw it last week, they rode the pen hard to take 3/4 from us, but then it struggled against the Twins and Pirates. In a 162 game season they would have been able to punt a game or two to let it rest up a bit more. C is probably still a skill Stearns and co have, but again in a 60 game season, with no minors to boot, there isn't time to sort through guys. I would guess there's not another team who's been more negatively affected by the new setup for this year. Definitely don't feel sorry for them though.

Welp Still think it's important to get him starts given the three open rotation be spots heading into next year

Really great bounce back start from Mills. Honestly I'd like to have him stick in the rotation through the end of the year. He's not one of our top five but I'd really like to have as much certainty as possible about whether he can be the #5 going into next year.

We draw some walks and slug some HR but this team can't horsefeathering hit. And Abreu hits the hat trick. This series has been depressing. They will hit. They will go through a week stretch where they will crush the ball and everyone will think the Cubs put it together again. But it’s the same team we’ve seen the last several years. Based on wRC+ the Cubs are about the 10th best offense in baseball since 2017 but I would guess they’ve underperformed that by a bit. If you score 10 runs in 10 straight games and score 1 run in each of the next 10 games, you are averaging 5.5 runs a game but you are probably 10-10 in those games. Conversely, if you score exactly 6 runs in each of the next 20 games, you are probably something like 15-5. Now no team is immune to streaks and slumps, that’s baseball. But it really seems like the Cubs peaks and valleys are larger than most teams. Wish there was a way to prove that. I think, broadly, that BABIP is streakier than we tend to admit and power is WAY WAY WAY streakier than we are willing to admit. People always want to diagnose the ebbs and flows of an offense but that's the bulk of it. And when you have a low contact group like this one, you're getting fewer bites at the apple and it's going to be more pronounced. Why the offense has always been a whole less than the sum of its parts is something I bet a whole thesis could be written on. My theories are A) a homegeniety in strengths/weaknesses and B) there's always been a few too many places in the lineup for pitchers to run and hide.

Ummm 5 walks to only 7 strikeouts tonight? Like there's many things to criticize about this team but plate discipline is among the last.

Good, let him fully recover rather than play at 70% the rest of the year

Yeah I’d be intrigued if they think the pitch mix change is a real thing. Also Strasburg is done for the year and the Nats are 9-13. Any of Howie, Eaton or Asdrubal would be nice offense targets. Tanner Rainey as a RP target from them too. Asdrubal Cabrera and a reliever makes way too much sense. Sean Doolittle is a pending FA and about to come off the IL, if he looks right his next few outings he'd be perfect.

The nature of splits is that over the course of a full season, each team is going to have a few extreme performances in a few random splits. Remember the first inning thing from 2017? I believe there was also a home night games thing within the last few years as well? Over a 60 game season? You're gonna see some real weird horsefeathers.

Kyle Ryan cracked 90 MPH twice...he's almost back to normal velocity. As much of a bummer as this game has been there's been a lot of good indications for the bullpen.

*Sigh*

Man, Rea looks great out of the pen. I know the team didn't really have other options last weekend, but keep him as a 1 inning guy. He's 90-93 as a starter but 93-96 as a reliever. With his command that's a legit late inning arm

I tend to think he could be good still if he embraced being a junkballer. Like he's still 75% FB/Cutter/Sinker and 25% Curve/Change. I'd like him to get that closer to 50/50, primarily at the expense of the four seamer.

Holy horsefeathers I didn't know the Phillies' bullpen had a 8.07 ERA until I went to MLBTR to read up on this more.

I think that’s a good thing for us. Bury the Reds. The cardinals are going to die on their death march, they have a double header a week the rest of the way and 2 weeks with 2 double headers and only 2 off days. That also gives us some margin to win only 2 of 5 in cincy next weekend. Yeah I think in a short season the Reds scare me more. That front three in the rotation and a dong heavy offense probably doesn't keep up with the Cards for 162 but for 60 and in the playoffs it's way scarier.

Good article, honestly laughed out loud at the title too

In a sane world the Cubs should lose this one and win the next two pretty handily. But I feel like whenever the pitching matchups are this obvious weird horsefeathers happens.

Were his cutter and slider always as nasty as they appear to be? There seems to be a ton of movement, without checking pitch FX. They were, they basically Jake’d him and said “hey your slider and cutter are good and grade out well, throw it more idiot.” It also doesn't hurt that it's starting to look like Hottovy is the Dave Duncan of cutters

That was not quite vintage Kimbrel, but that was basically 2016/2018 Kimbrel

My guess is this is Underwood's swan song. Probably finishes this game out and then Alzolay stays up after the DH

Sounds like Flaherty isn't super stretched out, and Game 2 is another bullpen game with Austin Gomber being the starter. If Mills pitches well enough to keep it close for at least as long as Flaherty is in the game, that would set things up really nicely for a doubleheader sweep.

This game has been kind of an unwatchable slog on the offense's end, but I don't hate grinding the Card's bullpen into dust the day before a doubleheader