Bertz

Most of the bullpen projections I've seen just assume that Kohl Stewart is definitely going to be optioned to the minors. I wonder if that's necessarily true. I tend to be down on Stewart, less because of anything specific to him and more because I think the Twins really know what they're doing on the pitching end. And so if they let him go for nothing that's a red flag for me.

I would have preferred to keep Stock. But now that camp's open and they've got these guys throwing in front of Trackman every other day, it's hard to argue with whatever they decide. Now that we know Wick is out for a while, and Ryan's not too much worse for the wear from his Covid, I'd guess this is the opening day pen we're looking at? CL - Kimbrel SU - Chafin SU - Workman MRP - Adam* MRP - Winkler MRP - Tepera MRP - Ryan* MRP - Holder* LRP - Underwood *Has MiLB options I'd guess Ryan and Holder's spots are most tenuous. Dillon Maples is out of options, so maybe he gets Holder's spot just for one last chance to show he can throw strikes? I believe I read that they altered his delivery a bit. This also assumes Alzolay has another option remaining and opens up at Iowa to manage his innings. If that's wrong that's a further squeeze on one of those bottom three guys.

It may provide a relative benefit to the starters, but what about the relief corps? I do think pitching and defense concentration is a good plan given the offense. Bolster a weakness with a strength. why would a dead ball impact starters any different than relievers? For the Cubs specifically, the starters are going to be among the staffs with the least strikeouts in the league. The relief core is going to be pretty normal in terms of contact, probably actually better than average.

Here they come

I assume Wick goes on the 60 Day to make this work

https://www.mlb.com/news/yankees-first-2021-spring-training-workout Speaking of pitch design, one thing I thought was interesting is that the Yankees just opened their own pitch lab (called the "Gas Station," which I hate to admit I love). The Yankees are an analytics heavy team and obviously not light on resources, so it's interesting to me that they're rolling this out two years after the Cubs. Being two years behind on having a dedicated building doesn't mean they're two years behind on concepts, but add this to the list of indications that the Cubs might be ahead of most of the league on this stuff.

The article admits that they have no reason to believe that it was anything more than a random fan or ESPN employee Right. But, but even though it ended up being a prank, it likely set off all that buzz (due to KB calling around to get this confirmed/denied). Especially since those rumors primarily came from local sources.

I wonder if innings are going to be so light for guys that it's plenty of time to ramp up. We know hitters only need ~2 weeks, and that the reason ST is so long is for SPs. But if teams are going to limit minor league SPs to 3-4 innings at the start of the season anyway, maybe a month is fine. Also, I was very slow on the uptake and didn't realize Ivy Futures was yours. Really good stuff, I've enjoyed everything I've read there so far! :good: I think so too. I haven't heard yet from anyone if they're just going to be doing a ton of piggybacking, but It'd still bet on that as the plan. That would also allow the development staff to keep building out repertoires. Like, Michael McAvene may end up in the pen someday and some organizations would just put him there while accelerating his development, but he's coming into ST with 5 pitches (4s FB, 2s FB, SL, CU, and a new spike curve). There's a whole bunch of pitchers that have been working on pitch design during the shutdown. I think there's just a whole lot of pitchers on each staff going for 2-4 innings through May and June. And thanks! I'm having a blast working on the site. I've learned a lot. It's been very cool to connect with the players, front office people, and other bloggers too. The pitch design stuff is fascinating. It's inevitable that one of these guys who posted their eye-popping Driveline data are going to be able to fully translate it onto the field. Like if Ethan Roberts or Brendon Little are 90% of what they looked like on Instagram this past year, we're going to really have something. Hit on a couple of these guys and the farm quickly and suddenly takes a huge step forward.

I wonder if innings are going to be so light for guys that it's plenty of time to ramp up. We know hitters only need ~2 weeks, and that the reason ST is so long is for SPs. But if teams are going to limit minor league SPs to 3-4 innings at the start of the season anyway, maybe a month is fine. Also, I was very slow on the uptake and didn't realize Ivy Futures was yours. Really good stuff, I've enjoyed everything I've read there so far! :good:

Have to assume this was that weekend where there was a ton of buzz that a trade that was going down imminently.

Wilson's incredible. He's a mega douche (I loved Deadspin's "Uncanny Valley" moniker), but on the field Mahomes is the only QB I'd rather have. Give up every 1st round pick until he retires and it's still worth it IMO.

Yeah, I think adjusting Kyle and Davies up is something that isn't even a homer move. Hell there was a day last month with like 3 "Why projections don't understand Kyle Hendricks" articles. The rest of the pitching though is pretty fascinating. Even with the limited funds, the team could have put together a staff that projects a good bit more productive than this one. But they appear to be pretty extensively targeting low Vertical Approach Angle guys and guys on the high end for Seam Shifted Wake. Both concepts are cutting edge on the public side of analysis, but is that true on the team side as well? Because if more than a few teams were in on this stuff already, it should be baked into the market price? We're going to find out pretty quick if the Cubs' found something, because the staff projects as awful. So if it's even average, that likely says something about the pitching infrastructure and R&D department. (and the fact that average would be a victory says a lot about PTR)

I was looking at the FG depth chart projections, and they're really down on the defense: https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=17 - Javy is an average shortstop - Nico is an average 2B - Marisnick is an average CF - Willson is a bad C - KB is a kind of bad 3B Those latter two are somewhat defensible, they were very untrue in 2020 but were pretty accurate in '18 and '19. But I think if you're looking for reasons to bump the Cubs up a few wins that don't make you a huge homer or put a crazy amount of faith in Tommy Hottovy, this would be the place to look. (I do kind of have a crazy amount of faith in Hottovy though)

Yeah, I think if we don't want the MLB team to take more of a dip than it already has we need to hit November 1st next year with 3 starters we feel good about, and enough depth that we're not worried about the 5th spot and beyond. Payroll next year currently stands at $80ish million. So even if PTR merely holds it flat from this season, that's a little less than half of what it's at right now. Rizzo/Baez/Bryant need to be replaced, and in this scenario we need another starter too, but I'm not worried about doing that with $80-100M to play with.

Looks like some prospects have in fact been added to the roster. TBD who besides Davis.

Yeah it's... something Speaking of Nico...Sharma and Mooney had a chat today in the Athletic. Not a ton of insight, but both guys sounded pretty confident Nico is making the team and the starting 2B unless he horsefeathers the bed in spring training.

I do think it likely says something that the Mariners, who project to have just over 3 WAR from their entire outfield combined, just let him go for nothing. If he was really a good bet to OPS .800+ vs lefties like his career numbers say, he wouldn't have been let go from two reasonably intelligent and very OF needy teams.

I'm already looking forward to the inevitable article debating whether Rocker/Leiter is a better 1-2 than Cole/Bauer.

Pretty cool that every level (except Iowa) is going to have at least 3 legit guys in both the lineup and the rotation.

There are some indications we're on the cutting edge of pitching design and development. So either that's true, which would be extremely horsefeathering fun, or we get a huge fire sale in July (which IMO is also pretty fun). Oh and the minors are worth following again.

I don't hate the Darnold idea. The Jets' have been dysfunctional enough that it's not completely outrageous to think he can be fixed. It's certainly not the likely outcome, but it's a swing at a long term answer. And if/when he fails, he's great tank-fuel. You have to pair him with a draft pick though, he's too much of a long shot to just pair with Foles and call it an offseason. I don't see Pace going for it though. Given the hotseat he's on he'll want someone higher floor. I think he tries hard for Carr or Watson, and ultimately settles for pairing a safe veteran with a draft pick.