Bertz

I wonder if innings are going to be so light for guys that it's plenty of time to ramp up. We know hitters only need ~2 weeks, and that the reason ST is so long is for SPs. But if teams are going to limit minor league SPs to 3-4 innings at the start of the season anyway, maybe a month is fine. Also, I was very slow on the uptake and didn't realize Ivy Futures was yours. Really good stuff, I've enjoyed everything I've read there so far! :good: I think so too. I haven't heard yet from anyone if they're just going to be doing a ton of piggybacking, but It'd still bet on that as the plan. That would also allow the development staff to keep building out repertoires. Like, Michael McAvene may end up in the pen someday and some organizations would just put him there while accelerating his development, but he's coming into ST with 5 pitches (4s FB, 2s FB, SL, CU, and a new spike curve). There's a whole bunch of pitchers that have been working on pitch design during the shutdown. I think there's just a whole lot of pitchers on each staff going for 2-4 innings through May and June. And thanks! I'm having a blast working on the site. I've learned a lot. It's been very cool to connect with the players, front office people, and other bloggers too. The pitch design stuff is fascinating. It's inevitable that one of these guys who posted their eye-popping Driveline data are going to be able to fully translate it onto the field. Like if Ethan Roberts or Brendon Little are 90% of what they looked like on Instagram this past year, we're going to really have something. Hit on a couple of these guys and the farm quickly and suddenly takes a huge step forward.

I wonder if innings are going to be so light for guys that it's plenty of time to ramp up. We know hitters only need ~2 weeks, and that the reason ST is so long is for SPs. But if teams are going to limit minor league SPs to 3-4 innings at the start of the season anyway, maybe a month is fine. Also, I was very slow on the uptake and didn't realize Ivy Futures was yours. Really good stuff, I've enjoyed everything I've read there so far! :good:

Have to assume this was that weekend where there was a ton of buzz that a trade that was going down imminently.

Wilson's incredible. He's a mega douche (I loved Deadspin's "Uncanny Valley" moniker), but on the field Mahomes is the only QB I'd rather have. Give up every 1st round pick until he retires and it's still worth it IMO.

Yeah, I think adjusting Kyle and Davies up is something that isn't even a homer move. Hell there was a day last month with like 3 "Why projections don't understand Kyle Hendricks" articles. The rest of the pitching though is pretty fascinating. Even with the limited funds, the team could have put together a staff that projects a good bit more productive than this one. But they appear to be pretty extensively targeting low Vertical Approach Angle guys and guys on the high end for Seam Shifted Wake. Both concepts are cutting edge on the public side of analysis, but is that true on the team side as well? Because if more than a few teams were in on this stuff already, it should be baked into the market price? We're going to find out pretty quick if the Cubs' found something, because the staff projects as awful. So if it's even average, that likely says something about the pitching infrastructure and R&D department. (and the fact that average would be a victory says a lot about PTR)

I was looking at the FG depth chart projections, and they're really down on the defense: https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=17 - Javy is an average shortstop - Nico is an average 2B - Marisnick is an average CF - Willson is a bad C - KB is a kind of bad 3B Those latter two are somewhat defensible, they were very untrue in 2020 but were pretty accurate in '18 and '19. But I think if you're looking for reasons to bump the Cubs up a few wins that don't make you a huge homer or put a crazy amount of faith in Tommy Hottovy, this would be the place to look. (I do kind of have a crazy amount of faith in Hottovy though)

Yeah, I think if we don't want the MLB team to take more of a dip than it already has we need to hit November 1st next year with 3 starters we feel good about, and enough depth that we're not worried about the 5th spot and beyond. Payroll next year currently stands at $80ish million. So even if PTR merely holds it flat from this season, that's a little less than half of what it's at right now. Rizzo/Baez/Bryant need to be replaced, and in this scenario we need another starter too, but I'm not worried about doing that with $80-100M to play with.

Looks like some prospects have in fact been added to the roster. TBD who besides Davis.

Yeah it's... something Speaking of Nico...Sharma and Mooney had a chat today in the Athletic. Not a ton of insight, but both guys sounded pretty confident Nico is making the team and the starting 2B unless he horsefeathers the bed in spring training.

I do think it likely says something that the Mariners, who project to have just over 3 WAR from their entire outfield combined, just let him go for nothing. If he was really a good bet to OPS .800+ vs lefties like his career numbers say, he wouldn't have been let go from two reasonably intelligent and very OF needy teams.

I'm already looking forward to the inevitable article debating whether Rocker/Leiter is a better 1-2 than Cole/Bauer.

Pretty cool that every level (except Iowa) is going to have at least 3 legit guys in both the lineup and the rotation.

There are some indications we're on the cutting edge of pitching design and development. So either that's true, which would be extremely horsefeathering fun, or we get a huge fire sale in July (which IMO is also pretty fun). Oh and the minors are worth following again.

I don't hate the Darnold idea. The Jets' have been dysfunctional enough that it's not completely outrageous to think he can be fixed. It's certainly not the likely outcome, but it's a swing at a long term answer. And if/when he fails, he's great tank-fuel. You have to pair him with a draft pick though, he's too much of a long shot to just pair with Foles and call it an offseason. I don't see Pace going for it though. Given the hotseat he's on he'll want someone higher floor. I think he tries hard for Carr or Watson, and ultimately settles for pairing a safe veteran with a draft pick.

Yeah, you have to think he likely starts out at Iowa now. That's fine, because like you said we know he'll be up eventually, and he was never going to make close to 30 starts anyway. Iowa's a better option than long relief IMO. If we assume Adbert at Iowa and Wick opening on the DL out of caution, I'd guess this is the opening day pen? CL - Kimbrel SU - Workman SU - Chafin MRP - Adam MRP - Winkler MRP - TBD Righty (Holder or Stock) MRP - TBD Lefty (Ryan, Wieck, or Morgan) LRP - Underwood or Fenter Those TBD spots I think are going to be the revolving doors for guys with options. We'll see a lot of cycling but I'd think Holder and Ryan will be first up? We might see a 9th reliever, which would probably be an opportunity to stash another out of options guy for low leverage innings.

Yeah, no appetite on my end to pay that price

Yes, for Marisnick. It has to be Maples, doesn't it? Yeah you'd have to think so. He's the name that sticks out on the out of options list. I think talent wise I'd rather dump Norwood but I assume having options is the bigger deal in their situations. I wonder if they can get a little bit for him or if they just have to let him go.

Still one more 40 man move coming I believe

It's hard to compare this to any other deal because it's a fairly recent phenomenon that guys get real money in these deals. Up until a few years ago they were all like the Rizzo deal: 5ish years at tiny salaries and then 2-3 team options at decent money. The union has learned how much of a joke those were, so now you have to lock guys up with less than a year of service time, or wait untilt they're close to FA and pay nearly market rates. This is a total unicorn, which is awesome to see. Given inflation and everything Tatis probably would have gotten close to $500M if he'd stayed awesome until free agency. But we're four years from when the Padres actually had to commit money to him, which is a LONG time. If the Tatis and Machado deals don't blow up though, the Padres are going to be really good for a while.

I'm not going to call any FO (except mayyybe the Rockies) dumb, but the evidence that the prior Phillies' regime was a couple years behind the rest of the league is pretty compelling. That in turn should probably also color opinions on Arrieta's chances of rebounding...