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Bertz

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Everything posted by Bertz

  1. Bertz
    Yeah I think it's basically this. I know most orgs will yank guys in the minors mid AB if they cross 30ish pitches. I think it's especially galling given that orgs are already scared horsefeathers-less about pitcher attrition this year coming off of last season.
  2. Bertz
    So I got curious about this and looked up the details. It was June 27th of 2010, Joe Torre left Broxton in for 48 pitches because the Yankees were in town. Here are Broxton's career numbers before/after: ERA - BB% - K% Before - 2.81 - 9.1% - 32.7% After - 4.08 - 9.5% - 20.9% It's even more stark within the 2010 season: Before - 0.83 - 4.0% - 38.1% After - 7.58 - 15.9% - 17.2% If something like this happens to Giolito, that's likely literally enough to torpedo their rebuild.
  3. Bertz
    TLR just let Lucas Giolito throw 46 pitches in the first inning. I haven't seen anything like that since Jonathan Broxton ~10 years ago and he was basically broken after that.
  4. Bertz
    Yeah, I think if they don't right the ship pretty quickly this is where I'll be at. Full on 2013 mode. Obviously rooting for the guys who will be around for a while. Also rooting for the guys who can bring back a mint at the deadline. Otherwise? Let's pile up some L's.
  5. Bertz
    Lol holy horsefeathers
  6. Bertz
    Looks like Ed Howard being at High A was just temporary Also sucks to see Strumpf settled in at South Bend. It sounded like he might be at Tenn. It's not that there's anything wrong with him being at High A at this stage of his development, but more what him getting the bump to AA would have implied about how advanced he is.
  7. Bertz
    I simply can't understand why you wouldn't be paying more attention to this team ;)
  8. Bertz
    I really want to see Megill, but yeah otherwise I'd love to have Wieck or Steele up full-time.
  9. Bertz
    This puts it well. Fine enough idea, especially with a 9 man pen, but clearly didn't take
  10. Bertz
    Bryant and Contreras really wanna be in another city on August 1st
  11. Bertz
    Not sure why the Braves weren't shifting Rizzo? Is this some sort of one arm tied behind their back gambit?
  12. Bertz
    Williams was clearly intimidated by Acuna/Freeman back to back to lead off the game, but he's been phenomenal since
  13. Bertz
    Remember the Rays' bullpen clock thing from last October? Winkler gives the Cubs a 3 o'clock guy. I'd rather have someone with more actual skill, but it appears the Cubs really value that extra funk.
  14. Bertz
    Watching the Dodgers-Padres, and it's striking how horsefeathering fast the Padres are. Javy is our fastest guy, and the Padres have 4 or 5 guys even faster. A few of them significantly so.
  15. Bertz
    This was too much to ask for apparently
  16. Bertz
    Feels like Joc gets on, makes us feel good, and then this ends on a Javy K
  17. Bertz
  18. Bertz
    Maples' command has clearly improved, but not by nearly enough for him to be an impact guy. Like I'm not gonna call for him to get cut, but at the same time if we get to a point where we need that roster spot he needs to go. No bending over backwards to hold onto him like we did with Underwood last year.
  19. Bertz
  20. Bertz
    Did Javy have a stroke, what was that?
  21. Bertz
    I'll say, from purely watching, I'm not worried about Willson or Happ at all. Process is good for those two, the results will definitely come. Wish I could say the same about most of the rest of the lineup.
  22. Bertz
    This feels like a game where we put up like 9, and the return to our regular offensive programming of 2-3 runs a game
  23. Bertz
    From Longenhagen's chat this morning. That means the Cubs are going to be one of the last 3-4 he does. Normally that'd be annoying, but given the circumstances it'll mean he'll have had a chance to see nearly a month of minor league spring training since he's personally down in AZ right now. Fresh looks at all of our guys that literally no other writer will have.
  24. Bertz
    It comes down to this for me... Theo declared the offense "broken" nearly 30 months ago and they still have 7 of the 11 top players by Plate Appearances from 2018 on the team. They switched out Schwarber for his statistical clone in Pederson. And they switched out Zobrist, Russell and Almora for the far less talented trio of Sogard, Marsinick and Duffy. And they still have the same hitting coach. This is basically the same group of players that has gone through bizarre extended offensive droughts in each of the previous three seasons, including scoring 1 or 0 runs in 10 of the last 21 games last season. Why are they expecting an improved result? Yeah. I actually like switching out Schwarber for Joc. Joc handles velocity, particularly up in the zone, much better than Schwarber. That is a widespread weakness on this roster, and Joc will help a bit. But like, clearly, this team needed actual on paper improvements, or at minimum 3-4 additional "style" moves like Joc to make the lineup less homogeneous and more difficult to pitch to.
  25. Bertz
    I think it's pretty obvious that the issues with the Cubs offense right now are both bad performance and bad luck. I've been curious to see how much is attributable to each though. So I went to Fangraphs, and looked at each hitter's wOBA and their xwOBA. wOBA is a composite stat on the OBP scale, so average should be .320-.330. xwOBA is their expected line based on Statcast estimates from all their batted balls. Here's how the Cubs lineup and top bench guys measure by each (wOBA/xwOBA): Happ - .261/.337 Contreras - .365/.354 Rizzo - .257/.322 Bryant - .392/.353 Joc - .192/.217 Baez - .284/.242 Heyward - .249/.253 Bote - .202/.303 Sogard - .171/.229 Duffy - .218/.399 Marisnick - .290/.301 So on the one hand, the good news is that the team has been very unlucky. Bryant and Baez have been fairly fortunate, and Contreras has gotten a smidge of good luck, but everyone else has been BABIP'd, several of them quite hard. On the other hand, even if everyone hit based on their Statcast numbers, the offense would still be pretty bad. If you average the main 8's xwOBA's, you get .297, which still sucks. So like the team should be closer to the 20th ranked offense than the 30th, but being 20th is obviously still very much a problem.
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