It really depends on how heavily you believe in FIP and/or xFIP. Williams has actually been really solid from a peripherals perspective: solid K rate, good walk rate, good groundball rate. HOWEVER, he's given up a ton of hard contact, he's fifth worst in exit velo allowed going into today. How much of that is luck? I used to think almost all of it, but now that we have access to exit velocities it's harder to be adamant about that.