Bertz

It's put on hold, we signed Seiya about a week after the lockout for instance. That said these postings all happening so early is likely a sign they want to get done befofe the lockout. The last few years guys have been posting closer yo Thanksgiving.

It really is a deep class. Setting contracts aside, I count nearly 20 guys I'd be relatively happy to give a rotation spot to. Plus a handful of interesting injury rehab guys (Bieber, Eflin, Woodruff), plus several guys who I wouldn't want to give a rotation spot to but I'd be relatively happy to have in long relief (e.g. Aaron Civale and Kyle Freeland). I do kind of wonder if the play is you nab two guys before the lockout and then try and go bargain hunting for a 3rd when things open back up in March.

Curious if this is the Padres needing to save money or his medicals being a mess, because this seemed like a slam dunk to be picked up.

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections/playing-time/teams/cubs It says it's still WIP but this looks like it's been turned over to 2027 projections. Pretty rosey, though I'm rolling my eyes at Justin Steele getting 170 innings.

I am not on Team Tarik, but I do think an offseason where the team likely has in the vicinity of $100M to spend and 70-80% of that is going to go towards starting pitching is the time to make this happen if you're ever going to consider it.

I certainly wish Kevin had one more minor league option but I don't know if I'd say they have something that rises to the level of a problem. I would be open to hearing what caliber of pitcher Kevin could be exchanged for, but generally I think you throw him on the bench and see what happens. We know Alcantara plays good defense, we suspect he will be a positive offensive contributor against LHP, and it's not crazy to think he'll get there against RHP in time. I think you platoon him with Michael Conforto or his 2027 equivalent and hope that the Jaguar can claw (pun intended) for some more playing time. If he doesn't oh well a RHH 4th outfielder is one of the more reliably available things at the trade deadline. The outfield and DH is likely going to be in flux early next year. I think you add one everyday starter and one Conforto type, compliment them with Shaw and Alcantara (and if they fail Ramirez and Triantos) and re-evaluate at mid-season. The reality is that PCA is so damn good that even pairing him with a cast of replacement players is likely to result in an above average outfield.

Projections for all the potential NPB imports this winter. - Good Sato projection - Disappointing Taira projection - Surprisingly good Itoh and Saiki projections - There's also a SP coming out of KBO named Been Gwak who might really warrant a deep dive?

I'm generally anti spending on relievers this winter but AJ Puk or Pete Fairbanks on an injury rehab contract a la Shelby Miller is something I'd be very open to

I think too the IFA spigot appears to be working properly again, so I think even if you're looking for a nicely balanced farm the plan should be to heavy up on draft pitching. Like I wouldn't be overly dogmatic but I'd want ~half of our 7 figure bonuses and ~15/20 picks overall in a typical draft to be pitchers?

I think this is too conservative. The CBA did have incremental growth within the period of the CBA, but it had a big jump between CBAs. The LT in '21 was $210M, in '22 it was $230M. I'd expect something similar this time, ~$270M for 2027 and a ~$5M annual bump after that.

Peterson is not my top choice to retain. "Finesse guy who somehow also has a bit of a walk problem" is a profile I don't expect to age super gracefully. That said if If we re-sign Peterson on something akin to the Matt Boyd contract while guys like guys like Peralta and King approach 9 figures I'm going to do Robert Deniro in Cape Fear style maniacal laughter. That would be a coup.

Holy horsefeathers

He's probably the 2nd best pitcher on the market. He's closer to Ranger Suarez than Dylan Cease, which is a bit of an indictment of this FA class, but he's good and I think the only non-Skubal arm that warrants a 9 figure contract. He will have the qualifying offer, which is not a dealbreaker but is a major consideration.

Yeah it's great that we have five fun LHH OF/1B types, and at some point there will need to be a culling, but those guys collectively have 1500 pro plate appearances and only about 10% of them have been above A ball. I feel like this group definitely shouldn't all still be here 15 months from now, but making a move this winter feels like poor timing.

Early projections not dissauding me from my pro Trent Grisham vehemently anti Suzuki/Arozarena platform

The Dodgers signed Edwin Diaz, the top RP on the market last year, and he missed 2/3s of the season and had an 8.68 ERA when he did pitch Prior to 2025, the Dodgers signed Tanner Scott, the top RP on the market that year. He had a 4.74 ERA and 10 blown saves his first season in LA Prior to 2024, the Houston Astros signed Josh Hader, the top RP on the market that year. He had a 3.80 ERA his first season in Houston Prior to 2023 the New York Mets signed Edwin Diaz, the top RP on the marmet that year. He missed the entire season with a leg injury he sustained in the WBC RP are super fickle, and unfortunately signing the top one in FA is not a direct path to getting a really good one.

The problem is twofold: - Relievers are fickle and the odds that you'll get 2026 Adrian Morejon in 2027 are much lower than any of us would like - The opportunity cost is a significantly better SP. Basically would you rather have Morejon in the bullpen and Colin Rea in the rotation or internal options in the bullpen and someone like Clay Holmes in the rotation? Morejon's salary is going to be right around $20M a year, it's a big commit

One thing I'm growing to appreciate is that the difference between a late inning reliever and a matchup guy is super thin. The bulk of relievers are consistent matchup options, but how much you can trust them against opposite handed hitters is a fleeting streaks and slumps situation. Palencia, Zef, and Webb are three good pitchers I'd generally be comfortable have closing games. It doesn't take a far left tail outcome for them to be demoted to matchup guy, but they should be a good foundation. Miller, Maton, and Rolison are probably good matchup guys, and the former two have shown some potential to be more. I think this is a solid enough middle relief group even if I don't love Maton's salary I suspect we'll run two long relievers? The SP depth is too thin to just raw dog it with 5 SPs and what's at Iowa. Garret and then either Cabrera or a FA like Civale? There's some solid depth at Iowa too. Ferguson was very good in a matchup role. Riley Martin looked great before he got hurt. Porter Hodge should be back early in the year. The Iowa SPs too even if you're bearish on them as SPs are probably nice relievers. I'd be hard pressed to do anything big in the bullpen. Do your typical waiver claims, sign an injury rehab guy (Harvey?) or two, or maybe trade Kevin Alcantara for his RP equivalent. But there's no reason to put money here that could go to starting pitching or the outfield.

I made a post about a week ago There's not anyone quite as obvious as Detmers, or Ben Brown for that matter, out there. But largely you're looking for young-ish, good stuff, a good xFIP, and a horrible ERA. A's and Twins each have a couple guys who fit this mold. I really like Jack Perkins especially. I suspect you put him in a legitimate MLB park in front of a legitimate MLB defense and he's a mid rotation starter tomorrow, with room for more.

I actually think ironically trying to do too much is how you end up Dombrowski-ing this roster. The Cubs were the top team in the league in position player WAR for players 25 and under. And while there was one guy doing the heavy lifting there the fact is we have that guy and have him for a long time. We're still 8th if you bump that filter up to guys under 30. The Phillies are dead last by both measures. And the foot should stay on the gas. The Cubs got 671 PAs out of Shaw, Mo, Ramirez, and Alcantara last season. Obviously swap out Mo for Ayers, but the goal should be to double that next year even if it means the team wins 90 games instead of 92. "Where do the gains come from?" is a really great question. I think the answer is the kids and the farm. Ideally it's direct: 22 year old Pedro Ramirez evolves into something more closely resembling Jose Ramirez. But also if you don't go trading away a bunch of player assets to get a SP marginally better than what's on the FA market you're likely better equipped to make a big Kyle Tucker-esque swing next winter.

I know I'm in the minority, but I'm generally comfortable with treading water given: - We'd be treading at ~5th best team in the league - We tread while infusing the lineup with some youth as opposed to treading with a lineup full of 33 year olds To your point about Swanson and Bregman getting old, the best way to head that off is not making the lineup needlessly old elsewhere. Not having the whole lineup be in their mid 30s insulates you from a certain amount of downside risk. and taking it a step further having a healthy chunk of your lineup being mid 20's gives you an opportunity for a breakouts to mitigate the inevitable breakdowns. Like next offseason doesn't look tricky at all to me? You have to replace Justin Steele, a couple of relievers, and any one-year deals you sign this winter. There will of course be things that are unforeseen now that crop up in the next twelve months that need fixing, but that's only especially tricky to navigate if A) This winter you sign a bunch of bad contracts B) You strip mine the org's young talent C) You get an especially raw deal from the baseball gods A and B are a matter if discipline and C is something where if you get hammered the incrementality of making this current roster stronger would be essentially pissing in the wind.

With the number of bodies heading out the door I think substantially improving on last year's team is tough to do this offseason. But "Offense loses about 10 WAR and the Pitching gains about 10 WAR" feels like a pretty easy outcome.

So this is, health permitting, presumably the SB OD rotation? Townsend Florentino Mule Reid Coppola That's really damn fun. It's going to feel almost like a race to see who can get the bump to Tenn first.

I'm not especially worried. He gave up a ton of dongs but his barrel rate was exactly league average at 7.7%. It's a combo of small sample noise and Wrigley playing so hitter friendly in '26. He'll be 36 next year so he might turn bad, but *right now* he's really good still.