Bertz

It's going to be interesting to see if these have any noticeable team-specific impacts. The shift rules should generally be a positive for the Cubs. On defense, the team's defense is backed up by speed and athleticism. There should be less worry about our players previous results being overly reliant on the shift. It's more guys like Brandon Crawford on the Giants (11th percentile speed, 93rd percentile defense) where you'd worry more. On offense it's harder to say, Bellinger and Hosmer and maybe Happ look primed to get some significant help, but I'd guess most teams have 2-3 guys who will get some significant benefit? The stolen base rules are really hard to say. The Cubs have a bunch of guys who are pretty fast but don't steal many bases. Are those guys emboldened to run more now? Or are the beneficiaries guys who were already legit stolen base threats, who are now going to really pile it on? I'd lean the latter, which might be big for Nico but that's it. Defensively both Gomes and Barnhart control runners well, and I don't think we have any pitchers who are egregiously bad at holding runners anymore. The pace of play stuff looks poised to benefit the Cubs, but you have to imagine the magnitude is pretty small. That said, the Cubs' current pitchers all work relatively quickly. Of the guys who project to make the OD roster (plus adding in Sampson and Hendricks since they might not be there on OD but still get significant innings), Adrian Sampson had the slowest pace last year at 23.4 seconds between pitches. The league average was 23.1 seconds, so Sampson is still 48th percentile in pace. Personally, I expect this to really horsefeathers with a couple of the egregiously slow relievers like Kenley Jansen, but not impact most guys. The good news is even if the impacts are wider spread the Cubs should be in the clear. Potentially most relevant, Giovanny Gallegos and Devin Williams were the two slowest pitchers in the league last year, and Ryan Helsely wasn't far behind. So the Cubs' biggest gain might actually come from difficulties for the Cards and Brewers.

Fergie is a treasure

Sampson is interesting. He changed quite a bit under the hood last year, both with the pitch usage and also the slider got more sweep-y. He was way lucky, but even if you give him the 4.40 ERA the advanced metrics think he ought to have had, that's really good for an optionable 5th/6th/7th starter. I'm curious what the plan is for him if the team makes it through spring training with everyone healthy and effective. Long relief? Iowa? Do you sell high and trade him to a team that does get a couple nasty surprises during camp?

This is really great timing with us finally having a strong prospect loaded Iowa team

By the time he'd need to be added, a few guys will be on the 60 day DL On the position player side? They're already at 19 position players which is a little heavy for current roster construction. 8 of those (including Morel) are outfielders too. Sure Heuer and maybe Roberts or even Hendricks could be 60 Day'd by April, but I'm not sure that creates opportunity for Deluzio in particular. This is not to say that Deluzio has zero chance of making the roster through some combination of performance or injury, but I think the default assumption is that they're comfortable with the CF depth(Bellinger, Morel, Velazquez, soon Davis) already on the 40 man, even if it's not plus defensively. I hope it's as simple as Morel being the guy. My understanding is CF is the easiest position on the field assuming you have the requisite athleticism. Maybe his half season last year of learning on the job and an offseason (and ST) of focusing on smoothing out the rough edges is enough to quickly turn things around. It wouldn't be that crazy. I'm definitely on alert for at least a mild surprise on the bench though. The Athletic guys mentioning a few weeks ago that Madrigal or Morel are potential options to start at Iowa felt like it had some implication to it rather than just a "it could technically happen" sort of vibe. I think DeLuzio, as a ++ defender and a guy with real SB acumen feels like the most complimentary to the roster locks.

On the pitcher side, assuming Jed pulls the trigger on another FA lefty, I'd be surprised if any of these guys have a shot at making the team. Merryweather and Estrada don't have iron grips on bullpen spots, but I think if either fails to win a spot out of ST it's more likely that someone on the 40 man (e.g. Sampson or Rucker) gets the spot instead. On the position player side, I'm wondering more and more wonder if Deluzio has a real shot at a roster spot, with one of Morel or Madrigal opening the year at Iowa. It just seems a little weird to have all this focus on defense and then break camp with only one guy on the roster who can play an average or better CF.

http://pitchingapp.pitchingbot.com/ Wesneski right this second has three plus pitches including a plus plus slider. He also has plus command, and in a small sample at MLB absolutely DOMINATED. He's among the very safest bets in current prospectdom to be a good mid-rotation starter The arguments against him are his fairly middling numbers pre-trade (so the projections haven't bought in yet), and that his fastball kind of sucks (ironically its a reverse Wicks situation where its good velo belies crummy other characteristics). So like he's going to be better than several guys who are making these Top 100 lists, but I do get why writers are hesitant to anoint a guy that can't really lean on his four seamer for success.

BA’s Cubs top 10 podcast: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2023-cubs-top-10-prospects-podcast/ Some notes: Cade Horton was one of the most popular guys MLB scouts kept saying they should bump into their top 100. Probably will crack their top 100 really soon. Thought he’d definitely go in the next few picks if the Cubs didn’t pick him at 7 and Pontes was flummoxed Cubs fans hated the pick, even if there were more famous potential picks available (Pontes wisely should continue to avoid a majority of this fanbase). On Wesneski, think he’s a 4/5 guy which is why he didn’t get top 100 consideration (and yet Liberatore is firmly in their top 100???) Cristian Hernández still has the talent and athleticism and is very young so don’t fret on his middling complex league stats. Because BA *loves* comparing Hernández to future-HOFers, they noted Miguel Cabrera looked the part in the GCL while posting bad stats. Felt like the top 8 guys were locked in but the next 2 could easily fall off (wild that anyone thinks Kilian belongs in the top 10). Wicks, Caissie and Hodge are guys outside the top 10 who could break into the top 10 soon. Other teams asked about Hodge in trades. It continues to be funny seeing a disconnect between BA and Kiley with regards to Wicks’ stuff. Said the average team takes 4 years from teardown to make the playoffs and Glaser thinks the Cubs make the playoffs ahead of that schedule by next year, partly because this isn’t a complete teardown/rebuild and partly because 3 other teams in the division aren’t really trying. I feel like the Wicks disconnect is mostly about data literacy. A 92 MPH fastball on its face is, even from a lefty, back of the rotation material. But Wicks' fastball is pretty stellar from a spin/shape standpoint, as evidenced by the 128 Stuff+ grade as sourced by Lance Brozdowski. To your point earlier, BA's just not the home to all the best and brightest doing this like it used to be.

I don't know enough non-star players to do a fully detailed offseason, but I think my broad strokes offseason would look like: - Star level FA investments in LT (Brown or McGlinchey), and the D-Line (Payne or Hargrave?) - ~$10Mish investments in RB, OG, and WR. Something like Josh Jacobs, Seumalo, and Michael Thomas - Use as much of the remaining ~$30M on depth defensive players as you can, with the exception of maybe an extension or two - Trade back with the Colts to #4, netting a '23 2nd and 3rd among other future picks - Take Anderson or Carter at 4 (Anderson seems more likely). Among your four Day 2 picks add another WR, OL, and TE (not a huge need but apparently it's a great TE draft) - Use that last Day 2 pick and everything from Day 3 on defense The offense should be very good right from the jump. There's no true #1 WR but there's everything else you could possibly want. The defense I imagine will eventually be pretty good, but probably quite weak early on. I think plugging various holes with better than replacement level players will improve it immediately over '22, but given that so much of the resource investment is youths, I'd totally buy a trajectory like the ~25th ranked defense in the NFL in the first half of the season and the 10th in the second half. Overall a good team (and enough depth that I think fairly high floor), but to be great Fields needs to take another step forward or Poles has to nail this draft.

Knowing that another lefty of some substance is still on the way, I'm really quite pleased with the pen. - You have two high leverage long relievers in Thompson and Alzolay - You have two monster stuff guys in Merryweather and Estrada. And they're not just spray and pray types, the projections like them too - Five of eight guys in the projected OD pen have options, pending how much the TBD lefty makes the other three have easily dumpable salaries if they struggle - Down at Iowa you have Leiter, who was great in relief last year and whose splitter/change-up makes him death on lefties, another monster stuff guy (Jensen), two more guys who can throw triple digits (Sanders, Correa), and a couple of more run of the mill relief prospects (Little, Leeper) - There are several more high octane arms at Tenn who could function as a second wave of reinforcements It's an absolutely Rays-like cache of arms. I don't like that there's not a guy we'll feel great about closing games on day one, but this is a part of the team that's very easy to see ending up dominant.

One other positive aspect of the farm that isn't captured in a ranking like this (and shouldn't be) is that there should be a steady stream of talent over the next several years. Like these are the rough ETAs for prospects of major substance who've had enough performance for us to peg: 1H 2023 - Davis, Mervis, Wesneski, Kilian 2H 2023 - Amaya, Canario, Wicks, Brown 1H 2024 - PCA, Caissie, Palencia, Hodge, Devers 2H 2024 - Made, Howard, Horton 2025 - Alcantara, Triantos And they're backed up by a small army of pitchers who are or will likely be relievers (some of whom like Herz and K. Franklin potential impact types) as well as some fun potential bench options. It really is going to be interesting to contrast with the core last time around. Not having to piss away money or trade chips on so many spots on the bottom half of the roster will help quite a bit, but not getting an annual 6+ WAR superstar season like we got from either Bryant and Baez did through the entire last run is obviously a huge negative.

Seems crazy to not even have Davis in the top 7 Cubs prospects Yeah I think it's an overcorrection, especially when he still has Royce Lewis on his list. Like the injuries crested risk certainly, but he's also a guy you could probably have open the year in MLB if you needed to. Is the risk with Davis really any higher than the hitters in A Ball? I'd say no.

PCA at 36 Jordan Wicks at 51 Kevin Alcantara at 77 Caissie, Triantos, Wesneski, and Hernandez listed as 50 FVs, meaning they're top 100 caliber even if they're a smidge behind the actual guys on the ordinal list

https://theathletic.com/4128648/2023/01/31/sarris-ranking-closers-fantasy The article is written from a fantasy slant, but Estrada and Merryweather get some sleeper love. Estrada's SSS results actually put him up with the tier 1 guys. Also I think Wick's marks are relatively encouraging given that we don't actually expect him to end up the closer.

I can justify almost any of these weird choices in a silo. I can't justify all of these weird choices together though? It's like at different points they completely change the calculus in weighting ARL, floor, and ceiling.

Yeah, if Bellinger really remembers how to hit (maybe not at MVP levels but at least at his otherwise pre-injury form), you throw Brandon Nimmo money at him and he's the long term LF. It's also pretty hard to see the team selling off this summer if CF is that productive. If Bellinger's just fine offensively, you QO him and bid him adieu. The org's depth at CF means we shouldn't spend money on a CF who's deriving his value purely from defense.

I don't know exactly how he mathed this but a composite ranking of the BA, MLB, BP, and Keith Law prospect lists. FG and ESPN still to come, though I don't think they'll move things that much. Probably move Alcantara and Caissie up a bit and Davis down? I'm surprised at the total lack of support we've seen for the pitchers. I don't think any of them are slam dunk top 100 types, but Wesneski ought to be close and each of Wicks, Brown, and Horton are of the caliber where you wouldn't be surprised by some assorted love. Instead I believe Callis said Horton would make his personal list and that's it. Maybe that's another change we end up seeing from the last two lists, since they both tend to lean on the newer age data pretty hard.

Law looks to be the high guy on Alcantara

I don't think it's unreasonable to not include Hayden Wesneski, but I will say I can't even really devil's advocate my way into thinking Ryan Pepiot is better, and he somehow came in at #70.

Back of the napkin you'd probably say something like 83. Coming into the offseason they were at 74 https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-absurdly-preliminary-2023-zips-projected-standings/ They've added this offseason 13ish WAR. That's not going to equate to 13 wins though because it was spread so much through the roster, rather than being concentrated in a few spots. So I think depending on how you evaluate some of the particulars you'd probably say they added 7-10 wins.

With the position player group likely settled, what does everyone want to see the lineup look like next year? Let's assume that to open the year at least Hosmer starts while Mervis is at Iowa. I think I'd go something like this: LF - Happ RF - Suzuki SS - Swanson RF - Bellinger 1B - Mancini DH - Hosmer 3B - Wisdom/Morel 2B - Hoerner C - Gomes If Bellinger remembers how to hit, that lineup actually goes pretty hard. Loads up OBP at the top, has power throughout, and does a good job of separating lefties and righties while also splitting up high K guys with more contact oriented hitters. If Bellinger's not hitting, it becomes a lot harder to load Happ and Seiya at the top. You maybe look at something more like: 2B - Hoerner DH - Hosmer RF - Suzuki LF - Happ SS - Swanson 1B - Mancini CF - Bellinger 3B - Wisdom C - Gomes I think in this scenario basically everything south of Swanson changes every day based on matchups. It can still work with the options on the bench and at Iowa, but Ross is going to have to really earn his keep. I've sort of thought this before, but seeing it written out I think it's clear that a Bellinger rebound is the easiest most direct path to this team being good.

Matt Barnes seems like a very natural addition for Jed to make once the Sox cut him and put themselves on the hook for his salary.

This is right in my Q Zone

Setting aside the MLB specific stuff Bryan is talking about, I really love when he puts these together. Seeing it all in one place really reinforces the system's depth. 1B/DH is a bit of a problem south of Iowa (BJ Murray and.....?), and the Myrtle outfield is notably sad, but otherwise very real prospects pretty much everywhere you turn.