Bertz

The bar is on the floor for him right now, but Kohl Franklin getting through four innings is nice to see. He was still bad, but not quite so bad as to get knocked out of the game super early.

Kyle Hendricks in June: 27.2 IP, 29 H, 3 HR, 4 BB, 26 K, 3.92 ERA The groundball rate is way too low still, and the soft contact magic appears to have left for good, but if he's truly back to controlling the strikezone again he'll at least be a good backend starter.

The only hitter on the 40 man that isn't on the active roster or hurt is Canario, so if they have a new injury requiring a DL stint(Heyward), a 40 man move is a necessity. As for where the move comes from, Hermosillo is a few days from 60 on the IL and they clearly don't care about DFA'ing him if push comes to shove, so 60 day-ing him feels like the play. Ah didn't realize that about Hermosillo. The "why Crook" does still seem to be the Menez deal. Crook up on the roster through the weekend, replaced by Seiya on Monday-ish, and then the next 40 man spot needed ends up being a Crook DFA.

I don't understand what he does for the team? They already won't play Nelly, so now we're going to do.... something..to free up a 40 man spot for another RH outfielder? I kind of wonder if this is a Conor Menez deal where he's getting called up because of a short term IL crunch (maybe even a COVID deal given the 40 man spot?), and they chose him over a better option because he's more DFA-able in two weeks?

Feels like Schwarber would be the only guy who would have a decent argument for pointing his finger at the org for his lack of development, considering he's the only one who got better after leaving.

He's extremely young, which I sometimes forget since he was in full season ball last year. If he got promoted today, he'd be the second youngest player currently in High A. Actually the Cubs are set to broadly dominate the youth movement at High A. Let's say Alcantara and Made get moved up on Tuesday. In terms of age the Cubs would have: #2 - Kevin Made #4 - Kevin Alcantara #5 - Owen Caissie #12 - Yohendrick Pinango #15 - Pete Crow-Armstrong Just a really strong crop of teens and just turned 20 year olds. Too bad Ed Howard, who isn't much older than PCA, isn't still part of this discussion at the moment.

Cole Roederer up to .315/.415/.389 at Tenn. No power so far but hopefully that's just normal dong streakiness. Also there pretty much has to be a trade or two in the next 9 months using some of the MiLB outfield depth. As of right now, this would appear to be the system's outfield situation at each level on OD next year: MLB: Happ*-Morel*-Seiya*; Nelly* and Ortega* in reserve AAA: Roederer*-Davis*-Canario*; Darius Hill* in reserve AA: Pinango*-PCA-Caissie; Nwogu in reserve A+: ???-Franklin-Alcantara*; nothing all that fun in reserve A: Not much to see here...Ismael Mena I guess? Asterisks mean a guy already is on or must be added to the 40 man this winter. Morel can (and ideally primarily would) play the infield, but that's still 10 OFers needing to be on the 40 man. Feels like you need to trade Happ or Ortega, AND use one of Nelly/Roederer/Pinango/Canario in a buy trade. Maybe even two of those four?

It would be cool if his slump was over

A great SP strikes guys out, limits walks, and gets groundballs. A good SP strikes guys out, and either limits walks or gets groundballs There are signs that Steele is a strikeouts + groundballs guy and that Keegan is a strikeouts + limits walks guy. I'm a good bit more bearish on Steele because of the velo issues that crop up late in most of his starts, but the odds of him being a legit SP still seem much higher than they were even just two months ago.

Luis Devers with 9 Ks and 0 BBs in five innings. Only let two balls out of the infield, though one was over the fence He, Made, and Alcantara all feel pretty ready for SB. I imagine at this point the main things keeping them at Myrtle are the proximity to the draft and trade deadline, and the additional roster machinations those will require?

I would think with the Padres being right up against the tax and Preller perpetually wanting to be active, the marginal value of Myers' contract is pretty high. If Jed's taking on ~$7M, it's probably worth $10M+ to Preller? Not sure exactly where the latest X Prospect = Y Dollars research nets out, but I think that'd be enough for most non Top 100 prospects. On a more practical sense, I think it would mean Hassell or Wood would definitely be on the table for a Robertson or Contreras trade, and Campusano would definitely be on the table in a Happ trade.

Lots of Cubs info here

It's three starts, two of them against crap teams, but if Keegan is good now it makes this offseason much much easier. Although that assumes Stroman is fine, and who knows maybe him suddenly underperforming his peripherals is the blood contract price for Thompson's (hopeful) breakout

Lol classic Almora pointless dive

It looks like Pinango also hit a triple which... I'm guessing there is a story there

In a competitive season you call it a night, in a season like this you extend him a bit to get him used to working deeper into games?

Wick has been awful for going on a month, really gotta get him right

He’s been around 60 the last two years as well, so maybe 115+ 20IP or so if he’s not wearing down? Yeah, they let Alzolay do 125 last year, and that seems like the likely blueprint. Alzolay had a more extensive injury history, but had thrown up 120 IP in a season before.

23 Ks and 3 walks in Keegan's last 17 innings. If we're nitpicking the groundball rate has dried up a bit with all the whiffs

Maybe even *really* good?

This would be... interesting. On the one hand it would certainly help the '23 team. I'm not worried about Kyle's salary next year, but I'm very worried about his roster spot. If e.g. Steele and Hendricks project for the same 4.60 ERA, it's much better to have a Steele you can pull the rip cord on and replace as soon as you have a better option rather than an intractable veteran like Kyle. On the other hand, while I am generally less sentimental than most, including at last year's deadline, cutting bait on Kyle would really feel like the very end to the previous era. Arrieta becoming good and Kyle and Javy getting the call up all happened in pretty quick succession mid '14 and basically officially kicked off the good times.

I still think regularly about CJ's obsession with Skittles and him skipping the White House visit to go to the dinosaur museum

This is really helpful, and honestly the UX stuff there is why I tend to check FG first for prospect stuff even though I value Jim Callis and co's opinions more. A few guys stand out to me from the list. I think any would be attainable: Luis Campusano - I'm going to keep beating this drum. I think Preller is by far the guy most likely to give up a top 30 prospect, especially with SD's org depth at catcher Logan O'Hoppe - Good all-around catcher who could probably report directly to Iowa. Phillies probably willing to move him because of Realmuto, and I'm kind of wondering if the reason he's still hanging out in AA is because they want him mashing to keep his value up for the deadline Xavier Edwards - You mentioned him but he's a switch hitting speed demon who can play all over the infield. There might be some reticence around another low power middle infielder, but I think his speed, much more reasonable groundball rate, and lack of being nailed to 2B make him very different from Madrigal Jordan Groshans & Miguel Vargas - Neither is super exciting, but both are probably everyday players and both are probably threats to open next year in MLB (you might even call Vargas up directly after the trade) A bunch of Guardians players - Cleveland appears to have a cache of upper minors prospects that might even make Tampa jealous. And I'd imagine Carter Hawkins' history would make him more likely to pick wheat than chaff The above definitely prioritizes MLB proximity, particularly at catcher. It's not a necessity to bring in a guy at the deadline, but catcher is currently the one place on the position side that *needs* to be addressed over the next 9 months. If Jed can check that box at the deadline, given the positional versatility elsewhere on the roster that opens up the offseason to just be about maximizing talent with the available resources. That tends to let FOs make the best decisions, rather than being locked into specific roles/positions.

This came up in the gameday thread, but I think we're deep enough into the season that we have a pretty good idea of what players are going to bring back at the deadline. I'm going to use the Fangraphs' Future Value ratings here for brevity and consistency, but for those that aren't familiar these rankings broadly equate to: 40 Future Value - A typical org top 30 prospect 45 FV - A typical org top 10 prospect 50 FV - A typical industry top 100 prospect 55 FV or better - Elite guys in the top half of national prospect lists Last year, Bryant and Rizzo each brought back two 45 FVs, and Javy (plus whatever little value Williams had) brought back one. Meanwhile Chafin brought back two 40s. So what does that mean for this year? Contreras is having a better walk year than any of the big three last year, but he's generally been considered a tier below them as a player, and we know teams don't love trading for catchers mid-season. It's also a much worse market this year, as most of the good walk-year guys are already on contenders. All told I think you should expect in line with last year (two 45s), but not be shocked if it's a good bit more. I could see a 50 and a 45. Robertson is a lot harder to peg. There actually hasn't been a reliever as good as him dealt in his walk year in a really long time. There have been guys as good with multiple years of control, but Chapman was the last guy I can find as good as Robertson, and he was much better, so he's not a great comp either (not even touching the off-field stuff). The best recent comp I can find is Zach Britton to the Yankees. He was no longer prime Zach Britton, but was still good and had been elite pretty recently. He brought back three 40 FVs. With Robertson being a solid bit better, I think you could expect a 45 and a 40. The rest of the walk year guys are pretty straightforward. Martin will bring back a good return, likely two 40 FVs a la Andrew Chafin last year. Beyond that it'll just be depth, maybe plusing up to a 40 if that guy is Rule 5 eligible or injured or something (think about how someone as fungible as Jake Marisnick brought back a prospect as notable as Anderson Espinoza). I don't want the team to deal Happ, but it certainly seems likely to be considered. Joey Gallo brought back a 50, a 45, and two 40s at last year's deadline. I believe there were some Rule 5 considerations there, but regardless that's quite a haul, particularly when you consider that the top two guys in the deal are already on MLB. I think depending on the circumstances, you might be able to convert some of that quantity into quality and get a 55 FV (e.g. Luis Campusano from the Padres). I'd also guess this is the approximate return for a Willson/Robertson package deal. Ultimately, given the depth already on the farm I'd like to see package deals wherever possible to try and net out maximum quality in exchange for quantity. Given how much of the inventory is relievers, I think that's a lot more doable than it'd be in a typical year.

I'm 100% ready to move on from Rivas. Jared Young is probably never going to be a thing, but dump Rivas, get Young up here to make sure, and backfill Young at Iowa with Mervis.