Bertz

https://theathletic.com/3279476/2022/04/29/what-were-hearing-about-cubs-prospects-pete-crow-armstrong-riley-thompson-brailyn-marquez?source=user-shared-article This athletic article doesn't have as much as you'd think from the title, but some good stuff On pitching in the system broadly: On Riley Thompson (also confirmed elsewhere he's hit 100 MPH): On PCA:

He hasn't done it in super high leverage, and maybe because it's so predicated on funk it'll dry up quickly as the league sees him more, but Effross has been nothing short of incredible so far in his career.

maybe pessimistic/skeptical is a better word than adamant, but yeah for sure, i underestimated his otherworldly tools to help allow him to survive a broken approach my hot take here is mostly that it's probably not good that most of our top hitting prospects are aspiring to be Shaq Thompson Would you rather have Caissie demolish the ball in the Arizona backfields, put up a good not great ~110 OPS+ at MB, or get his ass handed to him at South Bend? The former are certainly better for us all throwing around high fives on here, but do you think they are actually better for his development?

I'm not bored enough to comb through gamelogs, but Javy had some real rough stretches, I believe Soler too. You also won't see me throwing out any silver linings on a case like Howard. His entire career has been dreck, with a ~25 game BABIP fueled stretch at the tail end of last year being the highlight. He's more than used his mulligan. But if Caissie or any of these guys have a 2022 like Nwogu's 2021, 6 absolutely abysmal weeks and then generally kicking ass, I'll worry very little about it given their ages.

I'd normally agree with you about this sort of thing being spin, but they 100% said these exact same things about Rizzo et all and were proven to be absolutely correct. Speaking of which, weren't you super adamant that Javy had no chance at being a decent hitter because of similar rationale?

I really doubt it. Like you said they didn't really do it at all last year except with Santana (who got about twice as much runway). Plus in the Athletic this AM Sharma made it sound like the org was unconcerned, echoing the "we like to see guys go through a little failure" talking points from back when the core was developing. I think between the DH and regular rest days they can make all four guys work, and it'll be one of the non-specials that gets edged out. Then maybe Canario getting an aggressive bump up when Roederer is ready? Is it that aggressive to promote Canario when he’s already at 249 PA at high-A and is on the 40-man? Yeah I think those are the reasons he'd be the one most likely to get it. I was thinking aggressive because he's currently running a 40% k rate, although we saw a couple times last year (Nelly being the one who jumps fastest to mind) where guys who did not seem ready from our vantage got promoted and immediately produced at their new level. There's a massive information assymetry at play here.

I really doubt it. Like you said they didn't really do it at all last year except with Santana (who got about twice as much runway). Plus in the Athletic this AM Sharma made it sound like the org was unconcerned, echoing the "we like to see guys go through a little failure" talking points from back when the core was developing. I think between the DH and regular rest days they can make all four guys work, and it'll be one of the non-specials that gets edged out. Then maybe Canario getting an aggressive bump up when Roederer is ready?

A lot of guys walk when they're cold and hack when they're hot. I don't think we have enough tape on Nico to know if he's one of those but it wouldn't be that weird. This bullpen is horsefeathering shoving this year. Even with Givens blowup it's still 3 runs over 8 innings with a bunch of strikeouts and groundballs tonight

Good start from Kilian. Let's start shifting Caleb towards pitching the same day of the week as Steele

Brennen did change his swing over the winter, I believe brought his hands lower like Rizzo? So that may be a contributor to his struggles, though I believe the intent of the change was to improve contact, so you'd kind of hope the struggles would manifest with lower K rate but maybe less ideal quality of contact.

Imagine, I'm not even going to say watching games, but even just checking box scores and thinking the problem with this team thus far is anything other than starting pitching. The problem with the offense from 2017-2021 was the inconsistency. Sharma had a couple of good article on it in ~May of last year, but for offenses in the top 10-15 in the league, the Cubs had a higher proportion of their games end with 0, 1, or 2 runs. Each of the first four or five runs is significantly more likely to be a game winner than like the 10th, so it it's likely this boom/bust cycle was a big part of the team's underperformance and hot/cold nature. Look no further than what this team did against the Pirates for a good example of what this can look like. Was that proportion something like 5/17ths, out of curiosity? We have the highest babip in the league, by 12 points, but we’re 12th in ISO. 27th in LD%, first, comfortably in GB%. This is the 2022 cubs offense in their ‘boom’/‘hot’ cycle. Okay, if you normalize their BABIP to a standard .300. they lose 10 hits. That's 7-8 runs, enough to drop them from tied for 3rd in the league in runs per game all the way down to about 7th. Lucky doesn't always mean outright bad. They've also done this while a third of their starting pitching slate has been legitimate stars (the three Milwaukee guys, McLanahan with the Rays, Fried last night, Marquez with the Rockies). So while you can fairly point to the games against the Pirates and the Rockies as a ding, I don't think a granular look at strength of schedule (for the offense at least) actually debits them all that much.

This is probably mostly all the groundballs. It's not perfect but that top right quadrant largely tracks with top teams in groundball rate https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=2&season=2022&month=0&season1=2022&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2022-01-01&enddate=2022-12-31&sort=5,d It makes sense too, the deader ball means fly balls are flying less far than the models are used to, but grounders and low liners should be same as ever. That why the graph skews waaayyyy to the left. I was going to ask if there was an obvious reason why the model thought a vast majority of teams were underpreforming. I didn't know the ball was dead as my fandom. There's some specifics being worked out as to whether it's the ball or the fact that now all 30 teams are using a humidor. But yeah dongs are way down and the usual crew of people like Rob Arthur who analyze the ball have us basically back to 2015 in the early going.

7-10 with ten games against the pirates and Rockies Disappointing for sure, even if the other 7 were quite strong opponents. If I’m looking for reasons explaining that disappointment, I’d go to SP(26th in starter ERA), randomness(everyone has multiple 7-10 spells in a season), and luck(2-5 in 1 run games) before I got to the offense or it’s specific slappiness. Imagine, I'm not even going to say watching games, but even just checking box scores and thinking the problem with this team thus far is anything other than starting pitching. The problem with the offense from 2017-2021 was the inconsistency. Sharma had a couple of good article on it in ~May of last year, but for offenses in the top 10-15 in the league, the Cubs had a higher proportion of their games end with 0, 1, or 2 runs. Each of the first four or five runs is significantly more likely to be a game winner than like the 10th, so it it's likely this boom/bust cycle was a big part of the team's underperformance and hot/cold nature. Look no further than what this team did against the Pirates for a good example of what this can look like.

This is probably mostly all the groundballs. It's not perfect but that top right quadrant largely tracks with top teams in groundball rate https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=2&season=2022&month=0&season1=2022&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2022-01-01&enddate=2022-12-31&sort=5,d It makes sense too, the deader ball means fly balls are flying less far than the models are used to, but grounders and low liners should be same as ever. That why the graph skews waaayyyy to the left.

They've also scored 4+ runs in 10/17 games, and have yet to be shut out. Consistency we would have absolutely killed for essentially any year post 2016.

I'm probably missing one from 2020 but I think that might be the best hit ball he's had from the right side

Apparently it's Wicks day, which with all apologies to to Chris Clarke is a much more fun day

Gomes really does mash lefties, so while it's weird you do want both catchers in the lineup. Especially while Frazier is out. I would think you'd DH Contreras though unless he's one of those guys who vocally hates it. Stro's not a guy where you need Willson's howitzer behind the plate (and realistically Gomes is gonna be around longer so it's more worth getting him and Marcus on the same page).

We're about 10% of the way through the season at this point. So while I'm in the camp of not getting too worked up about anything until after Memorial Day, enough has happened that you shouldn't totally ignore results either. With that in mind I think we've got a pretty clear bifurcation on which guys' stock is up vs. down from a month ago Stock Up 1. Seiya Suzuki - Duh. We all thought we were getting a good well rounded outfielder with primo patience. It turns out we've so far gotten a great all around outfielder with primo patience. The defense has been kind of crummy so far, but I'm hoping that's temporary while learning new ballparks and playing more outside (I believe in NPB stadiums are about 50/50 domes vs open air) 2. Nico Hoerner - Like mentioned just a few posts above, he appears to be not just solid but really good at short. And while he's been hacking like crazy in the early going this year, his exit velo numbers are way up. He's now played at about a 5.5 WAR pace since the start of last year, and really just needs to stay on the field 3. The Bullpen - I was among the more bullish on the pen coming into the year and even I thought April was going to be an ugly trial and error process. Instead it took about a week to get things sorted out. They've been 8th in baseball in reliever WAR, and 2nd in xFIP (meaning if anything they've been unlucky). The projections have moved a lot considering how little of the season has played out, Fangraphs ranked the unit 23rd before opening day and they now project 19th. I do worry about what happens when Ross isn't able to manage away from back-to-backs and 3/4s so easily, but hopefully more innings from SPs mitigates the lost roster spots Honorable mentions: Hendricks and Wisdom. Results are mixed leaning good for both, but the underlying parts of their games that were especially scary last year are less scary early on, so fingers crossed Stock Down 1. Justin Steele - Since his strong first start against the Brewers, he has absolutely wilted as each start has gone on. And it doesn't appear to be the standard times through the order penalty, he's been losing velocity too. Going from 92-95 early in the game to 89-92 later on. It just seems like physically he's going to max out as a multi-inning reliever. That said, I do think he could do Keegan Thompson things from the left side (he sort of already did last year), so he's still got value 2. Schwindel and Ortega. Unlike Wisdom, neither guy has patched up the red flags they had last year. Schwindel still looks to be tracking as a lefty masher, so that'd certainly be roster-able, but Ortega's only saving grace at this point is not being as bad as Heyward 3. Madrigal and Stroman. The results have been disastrous for both, but the underlying numbers are much more forgiving. Stroman's got the longer track record so you really don't worry, but overall they're both probably fine

Lost in everything else the bullpen was stellar today. Seems pretty definitive at this point that Jed and co. can do the Rays' style build a bullpen on the fly deal.

Thankfully I think we'd have heard about it. While minor league injury notes are tough to get they're usually better at Iowa, plus with Brennen's notoriety one of the beat guys would have gotten a note. On the injury front though, it does seem pretty clear that Kevin Made did in fact re-injure himself when he left his first game back. That was last Sunday and hasn't had a PA since.

PCA with three hits including a double. It's gonna be interesting to see if they bump him up at any point. On the one hand I think we as fans are often too quick to say a guy needs the bump, but at the same time it sounded like PCA was close to opening the year in SB anyway Riley Martin is definitely going to need the bump soon though. 7 Ks and 3 groundballs to 10 batters faced so far, and he might not be done. We *REALLY* need a reliable velo check on him.

Steele might just not be built to do 5+ innings. Probably better airing it out 2-3 innings at a time than trying and failing to pace for a full start. I think when the reinforcements are ready I'd push him to the pen and let him do the Keegan Thompson role. Having a lefty and a righty ready to do that would be valuable as hell.