Bertz

In a competitive season you call it a night, in a season like this you extend him a bit to get him used to working deeper into games?

Wick has been awful for going on a month, really gotta get him right

He’s been around 60 the last two years as well, so maybe 115+ 20IP or so if he’s not wearing down? Yeah, they let Alzolay do 125 last year, and that seems like the likely blueprint. Alzolay had a more extensive injury history, but had thrown up 120 IP in a season before.

23 Ks and 3 walks in Keegan's last 17 innings. If we're nitpicking the groundball rate has dried up a bit with all the whiffs

Maybe even *really* good?

This would be... interesting. On the one hand it would certainly help the '23 team. I'm not worried about Kyle's salary next year, but I'm very worried about his roster spot. If e.g. Steele and Hendricks project for the same 4.60 ERA, it's much better to have a Steele you can pull the rip cord on and replace as soon as you have a better option rather than an intractable veteran like Kyle. On the other hand, while I am generally less sentimental than most, including at last year's deadline, cutting bait on Kyle would really feel like the very end to the previous era. Arrieta becoming good and Kyle and Javy getting the call up all happened in pretty quick succession mid '14 and basically officially kicked off the good times.

I still think regularly about CJ's obsession with Skittles and him skipping the White House visit to go to the dinosaur museum

This is really helpful, and honestly the UX stuff there is why I tend to check FG first for prospect stuff even though I value Jim Callis and co's opinions more. A few guys stand out to me from the list. I think any would be attainable: Luis Campusano - I'm going to keep beating this drum. I think Preller is by far the guy most likely to give up a top 30 prospect, especially with SD's org depth at catcher Logan O'Hoppe - Good all-around catcher who could probably report directly to Iowa. Phillies probably willing to move him because of Realmuto, and I'm kind of wondering if the reason he's still hanging out in AA is because they want him mashing to keep his value up for the deadline Xavier Edwards - You mentioned him but he's a switch hitting speed demon who can play all over the infield. There might be some reticence around another low power middle infielder, but I think his speed, much more reasonable groundball rate, and lack of being nailed to 2B make him very different from Madrigal Jordan Groshans & Miguel Vargas - Neither is super exciting, but both are probably everyday players and both are probably threats to open next year in MLB (you might even call Vargas up directly after the trade) A bunch of Guardians players - Cleveland appears to have a cache of upper minors prospects that might even make Tampa jealous. And I'd imagine Carter Hawkins' history would make him more likely to pick wheat than chaff The above definitely prioritizes MLB proximity, particularly at catcher. It's not a necessity to bring in a guy at the deadline, but catcher is currently the one place on the position side that *needs* to be addressed over the next 9 months. If Jed can check that box at the deadline, given the positional versatility elsewhere on the roster that opens up the offseason to just be about maximizing talent with the available resources. That tends to let FOs make the best decisions, rather than being locked into specific roles/positions.

This came up in the gameday thread, but I think we're deep enough into the season that we have a pretty good idea of what players are going to bring back at the deadline. I'm going to use the Fangraphs' Future Value ratings here for brevity and consistency, but for those that aren't familiar these rankings broadly equate to: 40 Future Value - A typical org top 30 prospect 45 FV - A typical org top 10 prospect 50 FV - A typical industry top 100 prospect 55 FV or better - Elite guys in the top half of national prospect lists Last year, Bryant and Rizzo each brought back two 45 FVs, and Javy (plus whatever little value Williams had) brought back one. Meanwhile Chafin brought back two 40s. So what does that mean for this year? Contreras is having a better walk year than any of the big three last year, but he's generally been considered a tier below them as a player, and we know teams don't love trading for catchers mid-season. It's also a much worse market this year, as most of the good walk-year guys are already on contenders. All told I think you should expect in line with last year (two 45s), but not be shocked if it's a good bit more. I could see a 50 and a 45. Robertson is a lot harder to peg. There actually hasn't been a reliever as good as him dealt in his walk year in a really long time. There have been guys as good with multiple years of control, but Chapman was the last guy I can find as good as Robertson, and he was much better, so he's not a great comp either (not even touching the off-field stuff). The best recent comp I can find is Zach Britton to the Yankees. He was no longer prime Zach Britton, but was still good and had been elite pretty recently. He brought back three 40 FVs. With Robertson being a solid bit better, I think you could expect a 45 and a 40. The rest of the walk year guys are pretty straightforward. Martin will bring back a good return, likely two 40 FVs a la Andrew Chafin last year. Beyond that it'll just be depth, maybe plusing up to a 40 if that guy is Rule 5 eligible or injured or something (think about how someone as fungible as Jake Marisnick brought back a prospect as notable as Anderson Espinoza). I don't want the team to deal Happ, but it certainly seems likely to be considered. Joey Gallo brought back a 50, a 45, and two 40s at last year's deadline. I believe there were some Rule 5 considerations there, but regardless that's quite a haul, particularly when you consider that the top two guys in the deal are already on MLB. I think depending on the circumstances, you might be able to convert some of that quantity into quality and get a 55 FV (e.g. Luis Campusano from the Padres). I'd also guess this is the approximate return for a Willson/Robertson package deal. Ultimately, given the depth already on the farm I'd like to see package deals wherever possible to try and net out maximum quality in exchange for quantity. Given how much of the inventory is relievers, I think that's a lot more doable than it'd be in a typical year.

I'm 100% ready to move on from Rivas. Jared Young is probably never going to be a thing, but dump Rivas, get Young up here to make sure, and backfill Young at Iowa with Mervis.

This made me curious, it looks like using Fangraphs' evals that the lead prospect would be around a 45 FV, here's what a list of those look like from teams that may be buying: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2022-prospect-list/summary?sort=-1,1&team=tor,atl,bos,chw,phi,min,nym,sdp&filter=scoutgrade%7Cf%7CFV%7Ceq%7C45%7C45&pageitems=200&pg=0 Some interesting names, especially for potential short term impact. Groshans, Steer, O'Hoppe, Muller, Walter, and Woods-Richardson caught my eye in particular. Yeah my intention was to say a 45 and a 40FV, but since we aren't in the MiLB forum I didn't use that jargon. But KB and Rizzo each brought back two 45s (FG technically had Alcantara as a 50 already but I think general consensus was more like a 45), and Javy brought back one. And that aforementioned Britton trade was for 3 40s. I'd also add the Yankees as a suitor, and honestly they might pay a premium because they already know Robertson isn't one of those guys who will turn into a pumpkin under the bright lights of NYC.

I am but a simple caveman lawyer. When you say “haul”, do you mean like better than any of our deadline deals last year? I'd guess not quite that much, but fairly close. It's hard to say exactly how much he's worth, since I don't think there's been a reliever as good as Robertson traded with only half a season of team control since we acquired Chapman. That deal's not a good comp for about a thousand reasons. The Yankees gave up three of their top 30 prospects for a still good but exiting his prime Zach Britton, and that feels like the lower end of what we should expect? I'd guess Robertson if he keeps it brings back an org top 10 guy and an org top 30 guy. And if he gets packaged with Contreras we get back back an overall industry top 50 guy.

David Robertson topped 95 MPH four time today, which for him is some extreme gas. He's gonna bring back an absolute haul at the deadline

Guy seems like he is Soriano-level streaky He and Nelly are so similar. Feels like one of them ought to get traded prior to opening day '23

2nd dong of the day

Yeah I think he's a guy that a few years ago would have been liable to put up some random juiced ball 25 homer season. Even if the power doesn't progress though, he's really taking a star turn. He's played at damn near a 6 win pace since the start of last year, and he's over 4 WAR for his career in less than a full season's playing time. I don't think the defense is actually *that* good, but he's going to continue to pace comfortably above 3 WAR/600 PAs. The durability is the big issue, but plenty of young guys have overcome that (while old guys who become brittle nearly always stay brittle).

Ryan Jensen 2.0 with another strong outing. 3 scoreless with one walk and two strikeouts. While the control is clearly much improved, the strikeouts and groundballs are down since he came back. Hopefully that's just him getting used to the new delivery, and not a permanent tradeoff. I'm happy to trade one of those for the control gains, but not necessarily both.

The lineup is hardly amazing but league-wide slugging is .393 this year

Yeah I was thinking the same thing, absolute trash for the last few weeks. Nothing visibly wrong though, so hopefully it's just normal ups and downs

Out of 178 qualified hitters in High A this year, only 24 of them are in their age 20 or younger seasons. Yohendrick Pinango has been the 9th best hitter among that group, while Owen Caissie has been 11th Only 2 guys in their age 19 or younger seasons are qualified, and Caissie is 2nd of those two

It's temporary because I'm interested in seeing whether this new delivery is really such a difference maker, but I'm actually much more interested in it being Ryan Jensen day than DJ Herz day. Actually between Jensen and Roederer both of my top two storylines are at Tenn right now.

With Bote back, I'd move towards having Wisdom split his time about 50/50 between 1st and 3rd.

I really hope fixing Hendricks ends up being something as simple as pitch usage. His stuff is the same as ever, and I believe that's all the Cards ended up doing with Wainwright so there is precedent. But if the answer was "throw your sinker more dingus" it probably would have taken less than a year and a half to crack.