Bertz

Marcus Stroman outside of the St. Louis debacle: 9 GS, 47.1 IP, 38 H, 12 BB, 41 K, 3.62 ERA, 3.51 xFIP

Keegan Thompson since adding his slider 5 GS, 28 IP, 23 H, 7 BB, 35 K, 1 HR, 28.6% GB rate, 2.25 ERA, 3.22 xFIP Not exactly a cupcake schedule either, as the Dodgers, Braves, and BoSox are 2nd, 3rd, and 6th in MLB in runs score right now. That groundball rate is atrocious and needs to come up, but while right now he's doing everything else at an elite level it kind of doesn't matter. The numbers have been there for Steele for a while (you can honestly go back to his last start in April), but for me personally he wasn't passing the eye test, but even that's started coming around the last month or so. Really exciting stuff.

I was a little skeptical of the fit for the Padres with as well as Profar and Mazara have been playing. But Profar nearly broke his neck last night and will be out for an indeterminate period, and they are giving most of their DH playing time to Voit already, so there's possibly a decent window here. If you sent Happ(with his 2022 tab paid for) and took on Myers' money, I wonder how close that gets you to Campusano? I'm noodling on a "what I'd do at the deadline" post and that exact deal is on there. Having catcher just totally (and quite satisfactorily!) taken care of heading into the winter would be a huge head start on team building. In fact combined with the positional versatility of Wisdom/Morel/Hoerner, Jed wouldn't be absolutely locked in on having to upgrade any specific position. He could just go get his favorite 2-3 bats and the defense will align around them.

It's certainly not the modal outcome, but if Brennen indeed gets back to Iowa by the end of August him opening up next year in MLB seems very on the table? A month at Iowa plus going to the AFL would likely get him between 40-50 more games this year. The Cubs do not historically park guys at Iowa for long, Bryant and Rizzo being the exception (though those were pretty clear service time games). Like he'd have to hit pretty much the entire rest of the year and next ST, but it's fun that it's at least on the table again as a best case scenario.

Happ I would be inclined to agree that the shape of the return would tell us something about the expectations for getting back to being competitive. If you deal Happ for someone who will spend most of next year in MLB, you can reasonably see that guy plus Happ's ~$10M salary doing as much or more for you than Happ himself. It's certainly riskier, but that's likely worth it for the additional team control. But if you deal Happ for a guy in A Ball, you're stuck trying to backfill a 3 WAR player with $10M, which is possible but not something you can reasonably expect to be able to pull off. Seems unlikely for a team truly trying for next year, unless it's some absolutely prodigious A Baller. The rentals though, I actually expect mostly teenagers. The Cubs' 40 man roster is already crunched as it is, and the upper minors have enough guys to where the prospect spigot should open up in earnest around Memorial Day of next year. I'd love to get a Kilian-esque close to MLB SP prospect for one of Contreras/Robertson, but otherwise it's probably more prudent to focus on more talented/further proximity prospects. Both because this *should* be the last time selling for a while and because of simple roster management considerations.

Canario with a dong. He was AWFUL his first few weeks at Tenn, but he's been pretty solid since the start of June Roederer and Mervis each on base twice already

The bar is on the floor for him, but Kohl Franklin was kind of good tonight? 2 walks and a HBP in 4 innings is not great, but when it comes with 6 Ks and a bunch of groundballs...kind of good.

!!!

I trust you more than most to stick to your principles, but the amount of consternation in the Cubs fandom '17/'18/'19 (just purely for on-field stuff), shows that most people who say things like this are super full of it.

Followup from yesterday. The system doesn't see the NL East quite as close as I've seen it elsewhere, though with deGrom's injury history the error bars on any Mets projection are going to be massive. The NL West is seen as not especially close, while the Padres are not as locked into the #4 seed as I expected. I think a Padres hot streak and/or a Dodgers swoon would be the best possible thing for the Cubs, as it would directly make the NL West teams more motivated, and indirectly impact the NL East, by making the consolation for winning the division a 5 seed (on the road in the opening round) vs. a 4 seed (home-field) Like the Mariners yesterday, I'm not sure how much on paper the #6 seed is worth, but you have to imagine it's worth more to the Phillies and Marlins than most. The Phillies haven't made the playoffs since the tail end of the Utley/Rollins era, and the Marlins only playoff appearance since '03 was the fakeass 2020 season. Take it all into account along with the AL standings and teams' needs, and I feel like the expectation for the Cubs' deadline should be something like: - Willson to the Mets, Giants, or Guardians - Happ (if traded) to the Twins or Padres - Robertson to the Twins or Jays - Martin/Givens somewhere in the AL East - Miley/Smyly to the Twins, Guardians, or Mariners

I don't really want to shop Happ, but he's having a career year, it's an extreme sellers market, the system is loaded with outfielders, and LF is one of the easiest positions to fill on the FA market. I think A) if a MLB ready piece is coming back and/or B) payroll next year will start with a 2, it's probably the right move.

I like that the org's pitching development is now good enough that with things like this we can legitimately wonder "is this a thing?" rather than just writing it off as noise.

Mervis with another walk and dong. He's interesting, running fairly average walk and K rates, and his power seems to be more good than great, but he has a high pull rate and hits EVERYTHING in the air. What he's doing is not especially weird, but there's actually not great comps for him. Rhys Hoskins or Brandon Belt with fewer walks? Kyle Seager but trade a little contact for power? The extreme flyball guys tend to be high BB/high K types as well or just all around unicorns like Jose Ramirez and Mike Trout. There's not a lot of mostly average flyball revolutionaries.

Riley Thompson with three really strong innings Would love to know what's going on with him. Pretty much every outing of his has been dominant or terrible with almost no in between, and he had a pretty long stint on the development list.

Passan has a recent article on the future of the SP that says Theo is loudly advocating to anyone who will hear to make it 11, but I haven't seen any indication that or 12 is affirmatively going to happen. Yeah I saw that. If he's advocating for 11, I'm wondering if that means 12 is already locked in for next year along with the pitch clock, and just hasn't gotten the press? Or is it something that was on track to happen but has been shelved in favor of other initiatives? I feel like the CBA garbled all of this stuff up. We had a pretty good idea of what was coming down the pipe and in what order, then priorities got shifted and re-ordered in the mad dash to finalize the CBA.

Do we know if the 12 pitcher limit on the roster is a go for next year? Because if so it feels like Higgins definitely has a spot on the bench if he keeps hitting.

The teams at the largest inflection points on the win curve are going to be willing to pay the highest at the deadline. I tend to think that with the new playoff format, the most valuable wins are those that separate the #2 and #3/#4 seeds. In that sense, unfortunately the AL doesn't offer that perfect opportunity to sell, as the Yankees and Astros are locked into the top two seeds. The best opportunity in the AL is with the Central teams. They are likely division or bust. We should all be the world's biggest Guardians fans over the next four weeks, as they have a monster farm and needs in the pen and behind the plate, plus if the Central is a real 3 team race that turns the screws even tighter. The second tier of the AL East provides some opportunity, as whoever comes out on top will get HFA in the opening round. That said all three teams seem like strong bets to make the playoffs in some combination. You also have to wonder about the Mariners. Not sure how much teams value that #6 seed, but the M's playoff drought being what it is likely makes it more valuable to them than any other franchise. Plus you've got the Dipoto factor. I'm interested to see the NL article tomorrow. Depending on how tight the projections see things, that could be by far the best opportunity. The difference between 1st/2nd in the East could easily be the difference getting a bye as a #2 seed or going on the road to face the Padres in the wildcard round.

For me, I like Gallo because: 1. He seems like he's just one of those guys who can't cut it in New York, and will go back to being really good as soon as he leaves. There's a long line of these guys, with Sonny Gray I think being the most recent example 2. Because he's had a rough year, he's likely to take a pillow contract, something like 1/20 or 1/25 3. He can play any of the three OF positions or 1B. Combine that with the positional versatility of Hoerner, Morel, and Wisdom, and you can basically shuffle the lineup around to account for any injury or loss of production outside of catcher I don't love having another 35+% strikeout guy in a lineup that already has Wisdom, but Gallo + one of the shortstops IMO is the most obvious path forward on the position player side

The last month or so have really helped show the contours of what a competitive 2023 team could look like. Pitching wise it's looking increasingly likely that we can count on getting two legit MLB starters out of Steele/Thompson/Kilian. I'm not worried about Stroman (his peripherals are good and guys don't just suddenly become FIP laggards in their 30's). and there should be enough minor league depth (plus Alzolay in the pen) that you don't need to worry about bringing in veteran pure depth types. So unless a Hendricks trade really does happen, the team likely only needs one more starter. It should be a notable one, but just one. The lineup is somewhat similar. Happ/Hoerner/Seiya all project at more than 3 WAR on a full season basis moving forward. Wisdom is another quality piece now at about 2.5. There's good complimentary guys like Gomes and Ortega (and probably Velazquez). If Morel keeps doing what he's been doing and/or Madrigal rights the ship, the lineup looks fairly solid heading into the winter. The farm is pretty stacked. There's four guys who will be consensus top 100 types (Davis, PCA, Alcantara, whoever they take at 7) and another 4-5 who likely end up getting some love from an outlet or two (Caissie, Herz, Triantos, Hernandez, potentially the returns for Willson and/or Robertson). That's in addition to the enviable depth that was already in place coming into the year. Aside from Brennen, the tippy top guys won't be a huge factor next year, but there's a lot of closer proximity depth to back up the big league club next season. And before that Jed should have the ability to fill at least one hole via trade without kneecapping the farm. It's hard to get too attached to specific names with so many things still up in the air, but broadly I'd like to see at least one guy brought in this trade deadline who looks like a good bet to contribute next year (think Kilian last year), and then something like Correa/Gallo/Brady Singer over the winter. The lack of top-end stars likely keeps the ceiling for the team as a 3 seed, but increasingly it doesn't look like too big of a stretch to get there.

Yeah I assume it was because they didn't want him catching more than 9 innings, but don't love having to worry about it

Triantos up to .280/.351/.406, 114 wRC+. Only a 17.8% K rate, which is lowest among the team's relevant prospects

Frankie Montas left his start today after 1 inning, and his velo was way down

A fairly crummy box score but I think Keegan pitched pretty well today against a good lineup