Bertz

We're probably a little over a week from getting official ones, but I think this is a great early projection from Bryan Smith There are some things I'd quibble with (e.g. Morel seems almost certain to go to Iowa) but I'd guess this is something like 90% right

The prospecting community basically does the opposite of the Tobias Funke "but it might work for us" meme when it comes to acknowledging young hitters with imperfect resumes but a strong does of age relative to league on their side. Because of that the prospect community (even the Cubs-specific corner of it )is way too low on Made, Ballesteros, and Caissie while also being embarrassingly high on Strumpf, Slaughter, etc.

Bellinger's dong today is getting all the press, but I'm noticing the 4 BBs and only 5 Ks in 37 spring PAs. There's some research from Dan Rosenheck that K's and BB's are the primary stats that matter in ST. Bellinger's not going to get back to the damn near even BB/K from his MVP season, but if he can be something like 11%/24% like he was in 2018, that's a huge improvement from where he was the last two years. That'd actually get him back to being an above average hitter even if his contact quality didn't rebound at all.

The benefit to having such a deep farm is that you should be able to throw $50M/year at an Ohtani and have no problem building out the rest of your roster. There's no excuse to not go full bore after him. That said, Jed's gonna do like Jung Hoo Lee and Lucas Giolito, which is nice but very much not the same.

https://theathletic.com/4334334/2023/03/22/cubs-keegan-thompson-velocity-struggles?source=user-shared-article Good article this AM from Sharma on Keegan Thompson. The tl;dr is that its mostly mechanical in his legs, and is actually something he's dealt with before. More and more looking like Iowa for him, with a callup pretty much immediately after he gets things sorted.

I wouldn't be opposed to each team getting a mulligan or three, just to minimize the chances of a key PA ending on an automatic call. The point about a guy being involved with the defensive play to end the inning and then leading off the next inning is totally reasonable as well. That's a slam dunk to incorporate.

Visually, not getting into like spin rates and stuff, he seems a smidge behind deGrom in terms of nastiness? But like they're clearly in their own class and no one else is close.

I think Tauchman's expiration date is actually Davis or Morel getting called up rather than Seiya's return. The roster needs someone who can play CF when Bellinger's got the day off. Ross was very reticent to throw Happ or Seiya out there last year, and I can't imagine that's going to be any different with each being a year older. But yeah Tauchman's clearly making the roster unless the org has changed its mind about Morel needing to open at Iowa or they make a trade. The list of in-house guys who can play a reasonable CF and step in immediately is just Tauchman and Deluzio, and the org is making it obvious that between those two Tauchman's the guy based on ST playing time.

Yeah, between the scouting reports and the SSS MLB data our assumption should be that Mckinstry is a very good 2B/3B and an adequate SS. Mastrobuoni or Madrigal are going to be a step down defensively at any of those spots. I see a lot of folks on Twitter being like "Mastrobuoni's a better hitter AND defender" and I don't think there's anything to back that up. Maybe it's true but I don't think there are any mainstream scouting reports or data that would agree. The offense is where you can pretty easily poke holes in Mckinstry's profile. He's not really hit at any point in MLB, and he's had this rough spring as well. There's some underlying stuff to like in the offensive profile, which is why he projects quite well, but sometimes dudes are just less than the sum of their parts. It's not super common but it happens. Though our assumption off of <400 PAs and a bad spring should still be that the projections are what is right.

I think the position player side is pretty clear at this point. The 11 guys you mentioned as locks, plus Madrigal and Tauchman. I do think, because of the 40 man situation, there's an outside shot at Hosmer or Mckinstry getting dumped. They both have ready made replacements on the roster and have been really bad this spring. I doubt the FO cares that much about their ST results, but if there's anything concerning in their underlying data and you're afraid you'll have to dump them in a month anyway, might as well do it now. The pitching is tougher. I think Assad swapping in for Thompson is going to happen, and because you don't trust Javier to close like you might trust Keegan, it removes the potential need for a more traditional garbage time longman. I don't think Assad's going to get banished to only situations outside of grand slam range, but he's not the trusted high leverage arm Thompson is. It feels like the concern around Wick is more from the fanbase than the team? So I assume with the roster crunch being what it is he'll still ultimately make the roster. The nice thing about him is that usually when he's got his good velo good results follow, and from what I've seen this spring he's been living at 95/96. The last spot probably goes to Leiter or Kay? Leiter's got that opt-out on opening day, so he's probably most likely. That said Kay has looked impressive this spring, including I believe a velo bump (I don't think he's pitched in front of Statcast this spring so it's based on stadium guns). As much as I like Leiter, if Kay's living at 96 from the left side he feels like the right choice? A trade would be ideal. Move an arm and/or a corner outfielder for a CFer instead of Tauchman. None of the guys we'd potentially cut have zero value except Hosmer, so it'd be nice (though not imperative) to not piss any away.

He's so freaking good. Fox needs to find their baseball version of Greg Olsen though so that they can lock Smoltz in an attic somewhere.

Pretty sold on his defense being at least playable at this point. Frequently has to take that extra step to get more on his throws, but that impacts his ceiling more than his floor IMO.

Sounds like there is some mild concern around Thompson and Hughes. It's not stated explicitly in here but IMO don't be surprised if Assad takes the Thompson role while Keegan irons things out at Iowa. Leiter is the obvious replacement for Hughes, but that requires a 40 man move (they already need to make a spot for Tauchman too). Regarding the 40 man, it's a tough situation. There's not really much dead weight on there currently. Rucker probably comes closest, but he's in that awkward zone of too good to cut unceremoniously not good enough that I want him on the roster. Are either of Hosmer or Mckinstry's struggles this spring something the team is actually worried about? 60 Day IL for Canario? A trade would be ideal, but I guess we'll see.

Assad looked great again tonight, but by my back of the napkin math averaged 94.1 on the sinker. Still way up from last year's 92.4, but down from the other day.

Might want to sit down for this shocker, but Wesneski is shoving again

I'm very happy to take the over on 6.5 wins if someone wants to do a charity bet like David and Jersey did last year.

Bryan Smith's list he's releasing on Bleacher Nation this week is a very good example of going off the beaten path but with some real logic and rigor behind it. Though even shows some brain worms while writing about Chase Strumpf.

Didn't catch all of Poles press conference, but a few things that stuck out from what I did: - They're probably done on the interior of the O-line. Gonna be a competition in camp to determine the depth chart. Specifically called out Whitehair's experience playing center FWIW - Sorta answered a question about Orlando Brown saying scheme fit was really important at RT - Called out age as a big factor in FA evals, as well as explosive athleticism - Specifically called out that while he's to this point moved down in the draft, but they might consider moving up from that block of picks in the late 2nd/early 3rd - He and the team think about players in tiers instead of rounds - Talked about value, and not feeling pressure to fill every single hole right this second. I believe this came in response to a question about how horsefeathers the D-line is currently - His line about 6-7 blue chippers in this draft apparently included the QBs, so that's why he insisted on something as big as Moore to drop all the way to 9 Overall my takeaway is that Poles' read on what does/does not work on the roster currently is the same as ours, but unlike us he's comfortable to do some heavy lifting via the draft and then patch up the rest after.

I feel so awful for Edwin Diaz but boy are the histrionics from Mets fans this morning incredible.

Yeah I'm mostly a no on these. We already have Wesneski through age 30 and Steele and Mervis through age 31. The odds that we would A) want to keep them past that and B) the cost would be prohibitive are pretty low. Morel's interesting, and I'd be pretty open to it depending on what internal evaluations look like. There's a lot of risk there but the path to him being a star isn't very complicated (which isn't to say it's easy). Him still having so much swing and miss this spring makes me nervous though, I was hoping to see more of a step forward immediately here in year 2. Hoerner's the most obvious case, and I'd like to see it, but I'm not overly concerned if they come up short. Really depends on the money. Defense is the first thing to age, so unless he continues to add power he's not going to be especially hard to replace in three years. Overall I'm just not especially concerned about the extension thing. We don't yet have a Julio Rodriguez or Ronald Acuna running around, so don't force it. I mentioned in a thread a few days ago but I'd probably be talking to some of the kids down in AA, and get on the same page as them now so you can do the concurrent callup/extension move in like August. Maybe Davis too depending on how his medicals look.

I forgot about Estrada, though I think he's fine to start the year in Iowa. It's a tough call, because someone between the stuff monster(Merryweather/Estrada), the long reliever(Sampson/Assad), or the lefty killer(Leiter Jr/Duffey) can't make the opening day roster unless Mooney is way off in his confidence about Wick(who has been good this spring himself). I honestly don't know which of those I prefer, I guess Merryweather/Sampson? Might change my mind by tomorrow though, never mind Opening Day. I wonder how long they're going to let Thompson and Alzolay go on a regular basis, because I think that does a lot to determine whether a long reliever is at all necessary. The indications seem to be that they're shortening them up significantly from last year, but if Thompson in particular can go 3ish innings whenever I don't think we need a LRP like Sampson around to do long stints of mopup duty.