Bertz

Getting from 3B for Jonathan Villar is...not a great endorsement

To me, the main takeaway here is that Morel is not getting run at 3B, which means he's pretty overwhelmingly likely to get dealt. The other thing is it's a CYA move from Jed. The Cubs basically need to add two bats this winter, and have openings at 1B/DH/3B. Based on who's out there on the market, it feels likely that Jed adds a 1B and a DH, but there are certainly scenarios where 1B gets all left open. For example a Juan Soto and Jorge Polanco offseason. You don't want in that scenario to be forced either to sell Morel or otherwise bury him on the depth chart. Morel at 1B is imperfect but it's at least a potential path to more or less everyday at bats. But mostly this is confirmation he's getting traded.

Yeah 1908 you nailed it. The team that has a QO player heading into the offseason more or less comes to the table with a $20M coupon in hand. Is that going to matter if e.g. the Yankees want to go scorched earth and offer Soto $50-100M more than anyone else? Of course not. But just because it's not a guaranteed way to lock your guy down like e.g. the Franchise Tag doesn't mean it's not a real factor with a notable value.

Triantos scares me more than any of our other prospects. Easily the likely outcome is something like Adam Frazier with crappier defense at 2B. That's fine, and even if a bit disappointing would make a quality bench piece. But we already have Nico Hoerner starting st 2B, we have Nick Madrigal on the bench, and Matt Shaw a bit ahead of Triantos developmentally. 3 RHH contact bats with better infield chops standing between Triantos and MLB plate appearances. Since James is a fringe Top 100 guy, we should cash that in right now, right? But there's just enough Alex Bregman in there to make me nervous. Bregman was only ever a superstar because of the rabbit ball, but even since he's been a guy running a ~125 wRC+ with a 1:1 K/BB ratio. Those guys are rare in today's game. There's usually like a dozen hitters with even-ish K/BB ratios a year, with a couple of those being crappy slap hitters (Tony Kemp this year), and a couple others being sluggers who get pitched around constantly (e.g. Soto and Acuna). If it turns out we had one of those on hand and then dumped him I'm going to be so disappointed.

So there's reall two different considerations here. First is "Is there any value to trading for Soto beyond the ~6 WAR he's going to put up?" The answer to that is yes, you've got at minimum a qualifying offer at the tail end. The second question is "Does the team trading for Soto get an advantage in retaining him?" I contend that's also yes. The qualifying offer contributes here in a prett explicit way. The number Jed threw out a few years ago was $20M. But regardless of what it's worth, the team that already has him essentially starts the bidding with an $XM head start. There's also the soft stuff. If he likes it where he's traded he might sign an extension or give that team an opportunity to match in FA. Those aren't things with a dollar value, but if you're worried about your chances of retaining him they absolutely matter. Honestly though? Even if there's no chance of keeping him trade for him anyway. He's legitimate 6-7 WAR demigod. He'd be our best player since prime Bryant and our best hitter since Sosa. Sweating losing like Christopher Morel or Owen Caissie over that is loser stuff.

I'll say this is the one thing that makes me think PTR might do what's necessary for Ohtani Ohtani is so singularly popular, he might drive enough Marquee revenue to make him profitable before he takes a single AB. For the last ~20 years, popularity has meant very little. RSN money was largely fixed, and merchandise revenue goes into a big leaguewide pot. But with the Cubs owning most of Marquee and having just launched a DTC offering, now might be a unique time where that off the field stuff really matters.

Yeah this feels right on the money. One thing that really sucks this winter is that it's actually a great winter for depth SPs. Gibson, Maeda, Lorenzen, Lance Lynn, and Nick Martinez are all guys I'd happily have as a #4/#5. James Paxton and Frankie Montas are quality injury rebound bets. Like I love that the Cubs finally have minor league depth and (barring trade) shouldn't need to shop in this part of the store but damn where were a lot of these guys over the last 3-4 years?

If the Cubs were a year further ahead of schedule we would have absolutely been having the same arguments about Rafael Devers. The Sox eventually and unexpectedly sacked up and locked him down. Don't take for granted the guy will be there a year from now. Boras has a reputation for no extensions, and his guys certainly do them less often, but you can absolutely lock a Boras client down. Strasburg is a prominent example that comes to mind. Start writing Soto a check that starts with a 5 and I really doubt he turns it down. And even if he does hit the market a year from now, how many times have we seen the deal where a guy goes back to his last team for a chance to match? Hell isn't that what the "Arson Judge" debacle was last winter?

It's ~$20M in value that other teams have to pay that the Cubs don’t. If they want to keep him that matters.

In today's game its really hard to find contact bats who aren't completely punch-less. With that in mind I'd be very reticent to move Hoerner. Now Matt Shaw looks like he might the kind of guy who could hit 20 homers with a strikeout rate hovering around 15%, and his best position is probably going to be 2B. So when he's ready maybe we talk, but I feel like dumping Nico to accommodate another bat with tons of power and tons of swing and miss would be a mistake.

The team has a lot of resources, but probably does have to skimp somewhere. I could see 3B being that somewhere. Nick Madrigal and Patrick Wisdom have both settled into that "not ideal but not gonna kill you" level of production, and both compliment each other well. You've got Miles Mastrobuoni in the mix, probably at a similar talent level to Madrigal and Wisdom. In the minors you've got BJ Murray and Matt Shaw not that far away. Very clearly not ideal, but it is probably the place we can punt on upgrading and worry the least about it. I would be comfortable doing so if the other items on the to-do list are so emphatically crossed off.

This is exactly what I think is most likely too. Mayyyybe they go a little harder on the bullpen by using trade chips instead of relying on FA, but this feels like Plan A.

Even if you set aside any and all soft factors, the Qualifying Offer is a very tangible and explicit cudgel to aid in resigning a guy you want to keep. So if you are keen on keeping Soto there very much is value in grabbing him now. There's also the big one, which is opportunity. People pretend Boras guys never sign extensions but that's not true. If you want Juan Soto in 2025+ there's a very real chance you need to get him in the door this offseason.

Bauer's not going to get signed. Teams don't stay away from these guys forever, but in recent times there does tend to be a cooling off period before another team signs them. But because Bauer is so insistent on running his mouth instead of putting his head down, that cooling off period is never going to come.

I feel like the level of disfunction on the South Side has been pretty funny but it's approaching the point where it's just plain sad.

For a long time, just getting to full season ball as an 18 year old portended big things. If you actually produced, you were going to be a star. These days because of minor league contraction (and a few orgs like the Padres who race prospects up the ladder) the former doesn't mean a whole lot, but the latter still very much feels like it does. So Rojas putting up a 115 wRC+ as an 18 year old, and keeping that up for 300+ plate appearances, that's a lot. That's some real production, and over enough time to assure us it's not just one hot streak holding those numbers up. The mid-season prospect rankings for him were mostly (and understandably) "holy crap look what he's doing at 18". But I'm hoping we get more info over the winter about what scouts think his ultimate upside is.

Brewers considering a full teardown?

I would move Horton for Soto. He's probably the only guy we know is available I'd do it for but I'd do it. That would have to do like 90% of the heavy lifting though. San Diego is not getting Horton and Caissie for instance. They're getting like Horton and Christian Franklin, or Horton and Matt Mervis. Realistically though, I don't expect Horton is available or necessary. This report makes me think the return is one of Caissie/Alcantara and one of Assad/Wicks/Brown, which is basically where my head was at until the Morel rumors popped up.

Curious if he very specifically means in free agency or if he meana in totality for the offseason. If it's the latter it would likely point to the payroll cap being the 2nd LT threshold

One other thing on this, and I've mentioned it in some of the more transaction-oriented threads, is that there are a couple pockets of depth that we should look to take advantage of. All of these exist in the upper minors or early into MLB. Close Proximity RHH Outfielders: Canario, Alcantara, C. Franklin MLB Ready-ish SPs: Assad, Brown, Wicks, Wesneski Potentially Special bats with more or less no position: Morel, Triantos, Ballesteros, McGeary For these guys, maybe sans context you'd have them in tier 1 or tier 2, but the existence of the others in their cohort I think ought to lend itself to making them more available (e.g. I could live with dealing Wicks only because we do have those other guys right behind him). At the same time, I'd be extremely reticent to double or triple dip from a single category, even if they're both 3rd or 4th tier (e.g. I wouldn't move Ballesteros and Triantos).

It's very weird to me that you're giving this credit to Counsell and not the front office and/or pitching coach?

When Theo left Rogers became by far the most connected guy in town. He's always been tight with Hoyer, I remember them having an annual interview Jed would take from the car on his way down to Arizona. He was the first with Darvish (Hoyer's first big post-Theo move), etc. So yeah if Rogers says things we should listen closely.

Is that because Ross couldn't see what was coming or because Ross had fewer alternatives available? Maybe at times the former but IMO generally it's the latter. I don't want to diminish Counsell but having twice as many "circle of trust" caliber arms is going to make any manager look smarter.

One thing for me is how lopsided the farm is in terms of guys having an ETA in the next ~24 months. On the one hand, it's awesome that we finally have so much talent so close to the majors. You'd much rather have that than the other way around. But the flipside we don't have the waves and waves coming, we have like two ginormous ones. So while not untouchable I'm very much unwilling to deal Ferris, Rojas and even though he's a step down as a prospect Gray because we need guys with some potential oomph with 2025/2026 ETAs. Otherwise I think my tier list would look similar to yours. I'd include Wicks in that Caissie/Brown tier, and I'd drop Shaw down there (though I think from just a human angle since he was just drafted he's exceedingly unlikely to get moved thus winter). But generally this feels right.

I am very unconvinced that record in close games is something that should all or even mostly ascribed to the manager. It's primarily luck/variance and what isn't variance is mostly bullpen. Craig Counsell had six relievers with an ERA under 3.5 this year, including three guys with an ERA under 2. David Ross...did not have that to put it lightly. So like blaming the Cubs record on Patrick Wisdom bunting or whatever the perceived slight of the day is misses the forest for the trees pretty badly. That said, David Ross wasn't perfect and some of the things Counsell does helps him make his own luck. Ross's circle of trust was surprisingly hard to penetrate. Julian Merryweather, after his disaster first outing of the year, was clearly in the doghouse. He only had 2 high leverage outings in April/May, and the second of those was May 30th. So it took 2 months for Ross to give Merryweather the rock when it mattered even as the bullpen was immolating in May. Watching from afar, the Brewers Counsell appears to make those changes in weeks, not months. For another example look at Abner Uribe. He is remarkably similar to Daniel Palencia. Whether In terms of the quality of the stuff (140 Stuff+ for Palencia, 139 for Uribe), the spottiness of the command (15.7% walk rate for Uribe, 11.8% for Palencia), or the timeline (Palencia debuted very memorably on July 4th, Uribe was a few days later on July 8th) the guys are very similar. Yet Uribe was part of the late inning rotation for Counsell while Palencia was very much a "if I have to" option for Ross. There's another thing Counsell does that I think helps his cause, but the fans are going to horsefeathering HATE it. Counsell is more willing than most managers to punt games that are not totally out of reach. He's not bringing his setup man into a game his team is losing 5-3 in the 9th. He's going to like the 6th or 7th guy on the totem pole and hoping for the best. Cubs fans (Matt Clapp on Twitter being the most notable in my experience) throw coniptions when Ross does the same (or when he doesn't bring a guy in for the 3rd day in a row, but don't get me started on how that dumb horsefeathers is). I'm excited for Counsell, he's currently the best around, but Ross was fine. Counsell will make a number of different decisions that give the Cubs a 60/40 edge over more of a 50/50 one, but that's going to ultimately be like maybe 2-3 wins.