Bertz

Paredes is somewhat ironically the best evidence for Cody Bellinger's offense last year being sustainable. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/for-bellinger-and-paredes-it-pays-to-pull/ On the whole, I wouldn't be a fan of a trade. I liked Paredes as a prospect, I like him as a major leaguer, but given the expected cost of acquisition I would want to be way more sure he's legit.

Didn't Mozeliak basically say "never say never but we're probably done with the rotation" like two days ago? I highly doubt they add Cease to what they've already done. They'll focus on other needs.

19 plate appearances is a weekend. It's nothing, and he was clearly pressing super hard to impress in his limited looks. Like he could certainly fail but his cup of coffee was completely meaningless IMO. The thing about Pete is the bar is on the floor for him offensively. He's probably a +10 defender or better in CF. And while he ran the bases like a nincompoop during his September callup I'd guess with his speed even if he is overly aggressive he'll be a + baserunner. Kevin Keirmaier is the obvious analog. We're hoping for more power and more durability but broadly that's the archetype. KK has been worth 3.3 WAR/600 plate appearances over the last three years as a league average hitter. So while he and PCA aren't perfect parallels outside of the box it shows that Pete can be 10ish runs worse than an average hitter over the course of a season and still be a starting caliber player. For reference, that -10 runs equates to a wRC+ in the mid 80s. So like PCA is so overwhelming of a defender he can legitimately hit like a backup catcher and still be a positive contributor on an everyday basis. I'm not especially worried about him being a backup catcher on offense though. Even if his approach is abysmal he'll have the speed to run decent BAs and the power to crush enough mistakes to put up quality slugging numbers. Think someone like Adolis Garcia or early career Javy. The upside is massive. Generally after a bit of an adjustment period at each level Pete began running normal K/BB rates. If he has e.g. his AA plate discipline numbers in the long term hes probably a 120 wRC+ kind of guy. And that with his Kevin Keirmaier starter kit outside the batters box is a 5-6 win superstar. If we land Ohtani or Soto, I 1000% give Pete CF right from opening day. If Jed has to settle for something more disappointing like Rhys Hoskins and Jeimer Candelario I still probably give CF to PCA right away but I could be convinced to give him a little more seasoning in AAA first.

Yamamoto is a bit if a different beast than the hitters. Indications are that he's more all-star than superstar. He's young and should hopefully stay that way for a while, but his appeal is more as a foundational core piece than as some monster for 2024. Short term he's probably not too different from Snell/Rodriguez/Montgomery/etc. Soto and Ohtani though, they provide a path to a fundamentally different team than any alternatives. They are game-wrecking offensive forces. None of the other players potentially available provide that kind of offensive impact. They might get to a similar value via defense, but they do not transform the lineup like the two big boys. If I'm Jed and I miss on those top two bats, I probably focus on short term deals for bats and poor a bunch of resources into the pitching staff. Go with a deeper more run-prevention focused unit and keep powder dry to hopefully finally add that monster bat next year. Though at that point you'd need to seriously question if Jed has the stones to pull down a really big fish.

There have been rumblings since the trade deadline that the Mariners would like to do a young SP for young hitter swap. I don't know if there's been anything that Gilbert is specifically more available than the others or if he's just the most popular amongst fans.

The Yankees farm is also kind of ass (including their recent graduates), so if Jed loses out it's because he didn't like the price not because he couldn't match the price.

I think I've read they often talk in generalities. Like if you use the Future Value parlance that Fangraphs uses you might say "Juan Soto for Chris Morel and a couple of 40 FVs" and then after agreeing to the framework haggle about who those specific 40 FVs will be. I'd be shocked if Soto gets dealt before Ohtani signs. Even if we hear about a Soto deal first, it's likely that Ohtani already happened and it just took longer for word to get out. Preller would be incredibly dumb to not use that extra leverage of Ohtani being off the board, even if he had a deal he'd be satisfied with already in hand.

Funny you mention this! I brought it up in the other Glasnow thread yesterday He didn't throw a lot of MLB innings early in his career because he was bad and the Pirates were too dumb to fix him, but nothing to do with health. He had an elbow strain in 2019, and those are very often a precursor to UCL tears. That tear ended up occurring midway through 2021, taking him out until September of 2022. Last year he had a hamstring strain in ST and missed the first bit of the year. So three injuries of any real consequence in his career, two of those being directly tied to his elbow which has since been reconstructed. He's a pitcher who throws hard so definitely be on guard for durability issues, but like the level of consternation does not stand up to scrutiny. Expecting 200 innings from a guy who's never passed 160 isn't a smart bet, but expecting 90 because he had the temerity to have TJ right after the pandemic isn't much better.

The collective pissing and moaning about Glasnow's injury history, like less than a week after most of the same people went gaga for the idea of rehabbing Brandon Woodruff's busted shoulder (which is sooooo much worse of a situation), makes me want to pull out what little hair I've still got. More to the point, Glasnow is probably the second best pitcher in baseball on a per inning basis (behind, ironically, deGrom). Sure the over/under on his innings is somewhere in the 120-150 range, but these are the sorts of risks you can take when your rotation already goes 8ish deep with options that are at least decent. Getting Glasnow on a one year deal is one of the smartest most impactful moves Jed can make this winter. My only reservation is that at $25M I'm not sure it can live as part of a plan that includes Ohtani or Soto, and those guys are by far my top priority this winter.

Let's pull out a globe and speculate wildly

I absolutely adore Bregman. He's no longer a superstar without the rabbit ball, but he's got probably the best plate approach in MLB right now (as good as Soto is he's a smidge passive). So with a wide opening at 3B and a need for some offense I'd be ecstatic to add him. That said, going back to the other thread from today, I think adding some thump, particularly left handed thump, is a bit more pressing on the offensive side of the ball. So I would not poo-poo Bregman, but I would prefer a Soto or Ohtani. My perfect world is probably to add Soto or Ohtani this winter and then Bregman out of free agency next winter. As much as I've harped on "you can't count on guys reaching FA" in this case that might be the more realistic scenario. I understand the Astros listening, but really doubt they'll actually go through with kneecapping their team right now. Yet Bregman has a good shot of actually reaching FA since Altuve is on the same timeline and seems higher priority for an extension.

That's just not at all true. 2016 - 140 IP (make sure you count his MiLB innings) 2017 - 155.1 IP (ditto) 2018 - 111.2 IP (worked as a reliever in Pitt because they were too dumb to figure him out) 2019 - 60.2 IP (forearm strain) 2020 - 57.1 IP (pandemic, this was actually a full set of starts) 2021 - 88 IP (TJ) 2022 - 13.2 IP (TJ) 2023 - 120 IP (hamstring) Again he's not Old Ross Hadbourn but more or less he's had 3 injuries of note in his career, with 2 of those tied to his elbow.

Midway through 2021 his elbow popped and he had that Tommy John, and in late 2022 he made his way back from it in a pretty normal 15ish month timeline. Dragging him for his innings totals in both years is a bit of a double-jeopardy deal. And his injury in 2019 was a forearm strain. Those are usually precursors to a guy's elbow giving out. Like he's not Tom Glavine by any stretch of the imagination, but most of his missed time in the majors was due to his elbow which has now been successfully reconstructed.

The complicating factor to him for 2024 is innings. He's got a cap of what, 120 innings tops? Even if he's shoving prodigiously, I'm not sure how to bring him up before July-ish. Like he will need to be in a situation where he can have starts skipped, extra days added, etc. unless we want to either A) do him dirty and send him to the minors even though he's performing in MLB or B) have a Strasburg situation where he's got to be shut down prematurely.

Yeah I think my only concern with Glasnow is that at his salary doing him + Soto or especially him + Ohtani doesn’t look super realistic. And yeah, I think the durability stuff with Glasnow is way overblown. That said he's certainly you definitely want to have that full complement of young starters (or at least most of it) in tact to buttress him. I'm not sure what to think about Bieber though. The velo is way down from his prime, but still right in line with his 5ish win 2022. He had a Barry elbow last year, so maybe that impacted the performance? Though clearly a compromised elbow increases injury risk. I think I would need a 2nd SP with Bieber. Bieber and Imanaga or something like that.

Do it do it do it do it

Oh man I looooooveeeee Bregman. If he's really available that would be amazing. That said I'mpretty skeptical? The Astros are currently on Fangraphs tied for the 2nd best team in baseball. They're really going to dump their 2nd or 3rd best player? I know their farm system is in shambles but this still feels exceedingly unlikely.

Brown+change for Glasnow feels right. That said I wonder if with the litany of injuries the Rays have had at SP the higher floor/lower ceiling of Assad might be preferable. Assad and a stronger 2nd piece might be a win/win from both the Rays and Jed's perspective?

Heyward played in 124 games last year, batted 377 times, and only 28 of those were against lefties. That is a level of platoon protection I've never seen before. Dave Roberts gets slept on as a manager but that's some really optimal usage to get the most out of a guy.

I was actually just looking at Stephenson this weekend when Hader got brought up. This feels like the type of guy who is out of Jed's comfort zone to acquire but now with Counsell aboard he might stretch to do it?

This might be an overcorrection, but after Madrigal I'll never doubt someone can play 3rd on the basis of arm-strength again. I think the offense is what has me most excited. A lot of what he did last summer was just beat up on guys he should have. But even at Tenn where he got challenged a bit he had a 6.7% swinging strike rate, which for MLB reference is tied with Jose Ramirez, and had a 17.6% HR/FB rate, which again for an MLB equivalent was tied with Nick Castellanos. Obviously doing that at AA =/= doing it at MLB, but even giving ground as he moves up the ladder we're legitimately looking at a guy who has 20+ HR power and will strike out ~15% of the time. We haven't had one of those since Rizzo, and we haven't had a RHH one since Aramis. So like even if Shaw doesn't walk at all that's an exciting wrinkle to add to our lineup. I'm a *huge* believer in lineup diversity. I firmly believe there are some add on effects to having e.g. Matt Shaw and Owen Caissie back-to-back in a lineup. Jed's baseball aesthetic clearly tends towards guys on the Caissie end of the spectrum, which makes guys in the org like Shaw that much more valuable.

On the one hand, it's objectively hilarious that the Cardinals were like "we need more power arms" and then did this. On the other hand it's not a bad rotation? And Mozeliak handed out very few year. And that's never stopped being a strong group of position players to go with it. There's some age related risk on both sides of the ball, but they look like a wildcard team. And they're the division favorites until Jed adds 10ish WAR.

It's less the $12M and more the 2nd guaranteed year. Though Gibson was 1 and a club option so maybe Maeda isn't a sign everyone in this tier will get multi-year deals.

Maeda is super underrated, but if that's what guys of his ilk are getting then scenarios where Jed trades a bunch of young pitching away and needs to backfill the #5 starter spot with a vet get that much less attractive.