Bertz

I'm still extremely skeptical the Red Sox pull him down given their self imposed financial woes

I was reading Grant Brisbees article this morning, and it's a "what if the season started today" sort of roster analysis for the Giants. This stood out to me JD Davis isn't great, he's basically Patrick Wisdom if he wasn't such an extreme launch angle guy. HOWEVER, the Giants pulled some black magic last winter and turned him into a very good 3B. As we know Wisdom’s defensive prowess has cratered the last two years. Davis and Madrigal would IMO be a good 3B tandem if we're not trusting Morel there.

That further proves the point, right? If the small army of public draft analysts that contribute to the public zeitgeist (many of whom with input directly from teams as well) can get things so hilariously wrong, just imagine how easy it is for one team's scouting department to muck things up.

You trade up for a QB or when there's an industry agreement on a tier change. E.g. the Eagles moving up for Jalen Carter who was the last consensus blue chipper left on the board. You absolutely 100% do not move up because you think you're smarter than the industry and can tell the difference between two guys the industry thinks are more or less evenly rated.

I really wonder how Boras handles conflicts of interest. Like it seems reasonably likely that Boras holding onto Hoskins to keep Bellinger's market afloat ends up blowing back on Hoskins. How do you navigate those sorts of dynamics and like what are the ethics there?

This is really good! At a high level, the issues Wesnesk had really seem similar to what Alzolay had in 2021. Alzolay became a little more north/south instead of east/west snd bumped up his 4-seamer/Cutter/Changeup usage at the expense of his sinker/slider. I imagine similar gradual changes would work with Wesneski, but that release point split you point out could be the fly in the ointment. I looked at Alzolay and he had one two, but just like an inch or two not ~6 inches like Wesneski.

Jed did like a half dozen things last year that most make sense if he was planning on going over this year. If Jed doesn't go over this year, he either made some major tactical errors (which isn't likely since Jed's problems are usually being too conservative) or Tom has more or less put the kibosh on ever going over again.

I don't love FullCountTommy but this actually does feel likely based on what we are and are not seeing out there

I thought this was really good at laying out the timeline: Harbaugh would throw a lot of this out the window though.

I also wonder if Imanaga’s specific salary allows for one path and after that closes it provides Jed some clarity. Shota is going to, setting aside the posting fee, cost at most about $20M per year, maybe something like Taillon’s $17M on the low end. Montgomery and Snell are going to be $25-30M. For a team that has 4-5 other holes to fill, that $5-10M can be significant. I wouldn't be surprised if Jed is hoping to land Imanaga, and if not pulls the rip cord and abandons the FA SP pool. For example: Plan A Cody Bellinger - $25M Shota Imanaga - $20M Robert Stephenson - $10M Anthony Santander (trade) - $12M Hunter Harvey (trade) - $3M Plan B Cody Bellinger - $25M Rhys Hoskins - $18M Robert Stephenson - $10M David Robertson - $10M Jesus Luzardo (trade) - $6M Broadly both plans are similar, but whether you utilize money or prospects to address SP impacts which resource you have to address one of the bats and one of the relievers.

Boston is not going to pull down one of the lefties. It's also become clear. if it wasn't already, why they had to double promote Breslow as opposed to getting someone who had already led a team before.

The deadline for this process to be finished, so like physical done, ink dry on the contract, etc. is Thursday at noon. So we probably find out today where he's going, certainly by tomorrow.

Two bits I think are worth sharing

Yeah I'd love for the team to have some 80 SB monster. I miss the days when those guys existed. One of my baseball hot takes is that there was some hidden value to those guys. It was overstated by the Ozzie Guillens of the world but I think it exists. Another belief I have, that doesn't tie into baserunning but does tie into irrationality, is that we need more "nose to toes" type hitters. Everyone wants a lineup with like 9 Juan Soto/Mookie Betts types but I'm convinced 6-7 Juan Sotos and 2-3 Javy Baez/Pablo Sandoval/Vlad Guerrero types is actually the optimal mix.

I'm not too worried about the position player group. There are SO many options at 1B/DH, and Mancini/Hosmer/Mervis were SO bad, that it's pretty easy to make up a lot of what went out the door in FA. And if Bellinger comes back, which I agree looks increasingly likely, it should be a better group than last year (and they were 9th in position player WAR last year). Not as good of a group as it could have been with like Juan Soto, but it should be a good group. Similar deal with the bullpen. Except for a stray Phil Maton mention real early in the offseason, all of the names the team has been connected to are pretty legit. We also got word that on Counsell's behest Jed is going to put more resources into the pen than he's traditionally comfortable with. I would expect two relievers of at least Michael Fulmer-eque ability, probably one guy at about that level and another guy significantly above. Something like e.g. Robert Stephenson and Matt Moore. Combine that with some of the youths like Little and Palencia being further developed and this will likely end up a much better group than last year. Where I am nervous is the rotation. There are ties to Imanaga and Montgomery, but not super strong ones. Aside from Cease (who does not feel likely) the pitchers on that level on the trade market there's some question how actually available they are. So it's looking increasingly likely that we're just going to run it back with Stroman? This is a group with enviable depth that could have used a crown jewel type, and so adding a mid-rotation starter feels like a missed opportunity. Especially since you'd expect a step back from Steele this year. There is, no matter what at this point, some significant missed opportunity this winter. This is certainly not going to be one of the offseasons we drew up in October. That said if you could promise me I'm not going to be pissed about the SP we wind up, I'd still feel pretty positive about the level of reinforcements we're going to wind up with.

They were reported to be sniffing around Imanaga a bit. Never seen as likely though, so yeah I think net net this doesn't move the needle much

It's fake. Exhibit A

On the pitching front the Yankees are 100% going to pull down Snell or Montgomery. The Rangers sound pretty heavy on Montgomery too. So there are roads to Jed being left holding the bag, e.g. Imanaga to the Angels, Montgomery back to Texas, and Snell to NYY. On the position player side though? Jed's set up incredibly well. Even if he misses on Bellinger there’s still a ton left on the market. That said I'd be shocked at this point if he misses on Bellinger. Boras would have to work some magic where the Nats want him to be their modern day Jayson Weth or something random like that.

https://theathletic.com/5182600/2024/01/05/shota-imanaga-mlb-free-agency?source=user-shared-article This is kind of wild, it basically poo-poos every team except the Red Sox, and if you read anything from the Rex Sox beat outside of The Athletic it sounds really unlikely they add a high priced SP.

We all should have guessed this would happen this weekend, the Mariners fan half of Cespedes BBQ posted this yesterday

Not sure this does anything major as far as Cubs implications go. The money, for 2024 at least, is roughly a wash. Giants still need a SP as Ray will be out most of the year. Probably makes them slightly more likely for Bellinger/Chapman, and a lot more likely for Hoskins or other RHH 1B/DH types?

So this is probably "it's just a little airborn" style coping but Then two sentences later So Mooney's cold water is not from the Cubs (which does not necessarily mean he's wrong)