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Bertz

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Everything posted by Bertz

  1. Bertz
    The beauty of that outing from Brown beyond the zeroes he put up is that the bullpen is now very well rested. Even though the group does clearly need additional talent, they'll be far less dumpster firey if Counsell isn't constantly having to hand the ball to a guy working for his third time in four days pitching on fumes.
  2. Bertz
    I literally cannot remember a series in Pittsburgh that was rain free.
  3. Bertz
  4. Bertz
    Today was always supposed to be an off day after his two rehab games. I think with the Swanson IL situation it just didn't make sense to call someone up for one day.
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  7. Bertz
    I like it, especially with how stubborn Swanson is about not having his name in the lineup spend two weeks getting right rathetlr than letting it drag on Also weirdly no update on Taillon yet
  8. Bertz
    If these probables hold this is pretty close to the best possible pitching day the system can produce?
  9. Bertz
    If it makes you feel better it's probably doubtful Skenes even faces 20. He has been HEAVILY babied this year.
  10. Bertz
    Very little has gone right in Pittsburgh this year, but Jared Jones is pitching at like a 99th percentile level. He is so good. Today's going to have to be a 3-1 type game.
  11. Bertz
    It's very annoying to me that all the beat writers last night passed along the probables for this weekend and didn't acknowledge Taillon’s absence at all either then or in anything they wrote this AM. It makes me think whatever it is is either very minor (flu?) or very serious.
  12. Bertz
    One thing we as baseball fans should always always always be mindful of is that power is streaky. If a guy hits 26 homeruns in a year, it's not going to be 1 a week every week. It's going to be a couple weeks with 3-5 each and a lot more weeks with zero. In fact some months are only going to be 0 or 1. With Happ, the contact and exit velo numbers are down a little bit, while the groundball numbers are up a medium amount. I tend to think his issues are injury, and that if Bellinger and Seiya hadn't already been hurt he'd have started a short IL trip around the Marlins series. But also I feel like the underlying issues are minor enough that you could still handwave it away as early season weirdness. I definitely don't see anything in his profile that rises to the level of alarming. So this article is well written and well measured but the handwringing on Twitter about Hapo is wildly out of scale with the extent of the actual problem.
  13. Bertz
    Owen Caissie starting to put some daylight between himself and a 30% K rate. 28.6% after today's game, and it hasn't come at the expense of walks as those are still at a huge 17.7%.
  14. Bertz
    Call me crazy but I'm not worried about Skenes. The Pirates have babied him so excessively to start the year it's pretty doubtful he even goes a full 5. Like long term yeah worry away, but in the immediate sense I'm just not quaking in my boots. Really interesting note about the Cubs facing the top velo in the league. I saw an Eno Sarris tweet earlier this week about the clubs facing the top stuff overall and was a bit surprised the Cubs weren't on there given the schedule so far. This would suggest their slate has been quite tough and I'm not imagining things.
  15. Bertz
    This is where I lean too. I think it's just bumps and bruises so should be a minimum stint, but get Happ right and keep PCA up through then, and then like TT said send Pete down because he clearly still needs the ABs (though I personally think he's looked better than his slash line).
  16. Bertz
    I tend to think it's this one Many hitters used to come up and feast for a few weeks until teams got a book on them and began exploiting it. Then you had the adjust-readjust cycle start. Because we have such robust minor league data now, I think those weaknesses are getting attacked from day 1 instead of like day 21. Fewer hitters have that .400+ average banked to lean on before they start struggling anymore, so it all just looks a lot uglier.
  17. Bertz
    It's almost like teams allocate resources in different ways and that impacts which parts of their roster index higher or lower than the league as a whole
  18. Bertz
    I think if you're actually coming at critiquing the offense from a place of intellectual honesty, this is what I'd focus on: - Offense from the catcher position has been pretty dire. Gomes looks cooked and there has been no juice from Amaya's bat. Now power is streaky, but you do wonder if being the primary catcher will influence his strength in the box - There are I'd say yellow flags around Happ and Swanson. I tend to think on Happ he probably should have been IL'd around the Marlins series but held off because of the Bellinger/Suzuki injuries. I expect he'll be fine going forward but maybe have a bit of a low season line because of baked underperformance. Swanson's contact numbers have taken a bit of a bit, though his Statcast numbers say most of his offensive underperformance is bad luck - The bench has been a bit of a mess. Tauchman and Wisdom (with very curated play time) have been great while everyone else has been a dumpster fire Overall I don't think it's anything worth being dramatic over, but they're real issues worth worrying about to various extents. Certainly better than discussing a team having the temerity to struggle against Dylan Cease on a day where he's throwing strikes.
  19. Bertz
    So to be fair he was actually harping on it all offseason, but couldn't actually give any substantive reasons why. It was very much an Andy Bernard "these muffins are bad" level of criticism. Some nods to "inconsistency" which mostly boiled down to "well they're worse than the Braves."
  20. Bertz
    The Cubs have been a middle of the pack offensive team despite concurrent injuries to two of their best hitters and the offense dampening effects of Wrigley in April. There's also the fact that leaguewide offense is down by a third of a run YoY, but baseball fans have a pathology where they're not allowed to acknowledge opponent or league context.
  21. Bertz
    I'm curious how much some of this stuff matters. Like is bat speed not going to correlate pretty strongly to top end exit velos? Are attack angles not going to correlate pretty strongly to launch angles? Maybe they don't, or it's one of those things where they usually do but the cases where they don't are fascinating. But I tend to think this stuff is going to be most useful year over year (to more or less quantify aging), so I'm excited for it but not sure how much can be wrung from it right away next week.
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  23. Bertz
    The Cubs lo-wait they won last night! And it came during a dramatic rainstorm Who knew what a key catalyst replacing Matt Mervis with Cody Bellinger would be Today fireballs Dyan Cease is on the mound for the Padres so things could get tough Go Cubs
  24. Bertz
    But wait, there's more! I haven't seen any beat guys confirm it but Canario going down almost certainly means Bellinger is back tonight.
  25. Bertz
    Let's speculate wildly about who's about to hit the IL
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