Bertz
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Everything posted by Bertz
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Do you have a tangible reason to expect his actual numbers to not match his expected numbers? He's not fat and slow, he's not hitting too many balls into the large part of the park (in fact he's quite good about pulling the ball), he doesn't have a history of it previously. If not then why would you bench him? Just because your frustration has bubbled over?
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Everyone remember that episode of the office where Andy wants to date Pam, and Jim gives her just the absolute worst advice by pointing him towards all these things she hates? That's kind of what this morning feels like, people just throwing out the absolute worst ideas for fixing the team, to the point that it's gotta be a bit.
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The entire fanbase is having a meltdown about the offense slumping, but yeah the only possible explanation that makes sense for sending down PCA is service time manipulation.
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I'd be very reticent to assume measurement error. I think Keegan Thompson's the only one who's velo was anomalously low at Iowa. Everyone else even if they've thrown a little harder in MLB than they did in AAA you'd probably chalk it up to weather or role. Like Porter Hodge, the newest callup, was 95.7 his first outing in MLB and 95.6 his last outing at Iowa. I think Horton's some combination of getting stretched out (he's sitting 95 early in games and fading deeper) and possibly spin/movement changes. I believe he previously had a carrying fastball and at Iowa it's switched to a cut-ride, maybe that impacts his raw velo.
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I'm really curious to see what this pitching depth does to impact the trade deadline plans. From two different directions: - Does Jed forego trading for any SP help? Particularly after the August waiver deadline got killed, most teams that are going for it add some SP depth at the deadline. Even if it's a swingman, they add something just to avoid potentially getting caught with their pants down by injuries. But if two months from now the Cubs are 8 deep (maybe 9 depending on how you feel about Smyly) in the rotation, do you really need to add someone just to add someone? - Taking it a step further, does Jed trade some of this depth away? Being on the seller side of the house a lot the last few years, we've seen teams VERY reticent to add plug and play SP to trades. If Jed were to, for example, offer up Alcantara and Wesneski in a package, that feels like it would get him more or less anyone he could want? But do you risk trading immediate functional pitching depth in a summer you're competing? Maybe going back to the question above it's on the table but does force a Sean Manaea/Michael Lorenzen type acquisition to backfill that depth?
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Good read on reliever volatility in general, but also relevant as the Cubs will probably be in this space. Guys like Mason Miller with his level of dominance or Ryan Pressly with his level of track record (+ dominance) will obviously be different. But if you want a pop-up arm like Yimi Garcia the price is probably in line with what we got back for Ryan Tepera and Andrew Chafin. Fun live arms from the back of our top 30.
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I wonder what the rough plan is in terms of number of innings they're hoping to get from guys. Obviously some will depend on whether or not they have a lead, but mainly curious what kind of length we can expect from Brown and if Hendricks is for sure getting in today or not.
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Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 5-22-24
Bertz replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
Cade at 94.6 and topping 96.1 through 2 -
Much like Acuna and Olson, Max Fried is a star who's been more good than great in the early going this year. Just try to grind through today and pray he it takes at least another couple days before he gets right.
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Fall of the house of Busch-er
Bertz replied to Transmogrified Tiger's topic in General Baseball Talk
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This early in the year the focus is correctly on the division, but something else to keep in mind is that the Cubs are 4 games up on a playoff spot despite the injuries and the tough early schedule.
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*whispers* The Cubs' bullpen is now 15th in WAR and 11th in WPA
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This feels right, wasn't the situation with Heyward similarly based around a milestone? I mentioned in my comment on one of the articles I think yesterday that I do hold out hope that Kyle's usable once through the order at least. If you wanted to get nuts, 3-4 innings each from Wesneski and Brown, 2-3 from Kyle, and maybe a couple outs from Cuas/Little to make sure the bulk guys can start their appearances clean is not the worst pitching plan on a given day. Not something I'd wanna do long term but a couple times through the rotation until Wicks is back?
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Umpires missing balls & strikes at a bad rate
Bertz replied to spaincubsfan's topic in General Baseball Talk
My understanding is that, holistically, umpires have improves A TON over the last five years or so. I don't know where the study I read is, but I believe their accuracy was in the high 80's not that long ago and it's mid 90's now. And if you could somehow convince CB Bucknor and Angel Hernandez to retire it'd be that much higher (and more consistent). -
Night day from the lineups the last couple weeks
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I think this is a great point about how crappy the roster spot is from a development standpoint if we want to push one of the prospects into it. The ideal roster fit would probably be Mervis if he didn't inexplicably shut down and start pissing his pants whenever he plays in a major league game. I wonder if there's a Dom Smith style guy floating around on waivers right now that they're eying.
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Shota Imanaga early Cy Young award favorite, too soon?
Bertz replied to spaincubsfan's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Shota has also yet to face any team for a second time yet. He's great but as the league gets more familiar and as the weather warms up I expect him to settle in as more of a #2 starter. -
I'd be pretty shocked if Jed actually pulled down Miller. I do think we're at the stage of the competitive cycle where he'll be less conservative, but giving up what Oakland will require for Miller's long term control just feels like something Jed will never do regardless of circumstances. Kind of like signing Hader last winter it feels like we can just dismiss it out of hand. I do expect bullpen reinforcements. I'm a broken record but a guy like Ryan Pressly feels like the right level of expenditure. Maybe paired with a Cuas style "stuff monster who we think we can fix." Someone like Nate Pearson? Bullpen aside, I do wonder if we're at the part of the competitive cycle where Jed is more willing to do something dramatic. The farm has a lot of talent that's major league adjacent, the team's on the meaty part of the win curve, and catcher aside there are no major holes on the roster. If there is a point Jed will be willing to let his hair down and go for a Vladito or a Jesus Luzardo or something like that this summer feels like the most logical time.
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Pete Crow-ArmstrongMatt ShawCade HortonOwen CaissieKevin AlcantaraBen BrownMoises BallesterosJames TriantosJefferson RojasAlexander CanarioJaxon WigginsLuis VazquezCristian HernandezDrew GrayFernando CruzMichael AriasBJ Murray JrBrandon BirdsellMichael CaricoBrennen Davis
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This is a weird choice, not necessarily a bad one but it is weird. With Tauchman being essentially an everyday player now there are no lefties or dedicated outfielders on the bench. Neither of those is a problem necessarily, but it feels weird to paint yourself in that corner for the sake of Nick Madrigal? I wonder if this is temporary, give it a week or so to prove that Hoerner is truly healthy and then bring an outfielder (Brennen Davis?) up.
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Gray's next start is this weekend vs. the Cubs
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If Kyle was just a guy, I think you'd clearly phantom IL him again this week, and then probably cut him at some point in June/July when you need the 40 man spot. As is there's some push/pull between doing right by a franchise icon and the fact that this is untenable. Also the next two starts for this spot in the rotation are the Braves, a pretty unforgiving matchup, and the Brewers, a matchup of outsized importance. IF the team holds off on cutting bait until Wicks comes back, I think the TTO numbers are of interest. I wonder if we take a couple turns of letting him go just once through the order, serving as almost a jumbo opener? His issue appears to be that essentially nothing but his changeup is working like he wants. But if you limit teams to one look and pair him with a wildly different pitcher like Ben Brown, that might work. At least worth giving a shot the 2-3 turns back through the rotation before Wicks comes back?
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Certainly not for good, but I could see a spot start as a bridge to Hendricks exiting the rotation and Wicks re-entering. Especially if he only has to go like 9-15 batters before handing off to Brown or Wesneski.
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Hendricks is currently in line to start Thursday, so them throwing a TBD up there says something. I wonder if the plan is a bullpen game (led by Brown/Wesneski) unless the bullpen gets shredded Tuesday/Wednesday? Or if you wanted to get wild you could call up Horton....
