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Bertz

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Everything posted by Bertz

  1. Bertz
    If you think 21 and 22 look like bad drafts you clearly do not understand this stuff.
  2. Bertz
    I think this should be an interesting offseason. There's not a lot that NEEDS to be done. Obviously relief help, and probably catcher help, and anything else should be pretty optional? Like TT said Bellinger's the only FA we might miss, so there should be less of a shopping list aspect to the winter and more of a hunt for concentrated impact. Also I think if it doesn't start in earnest at the TDL next month, we'll be at the point where simple roster limits will push Jed to where he must start cashing in prospect chips. Depending on what happens at the deadline, I think the default assumption for the winter is a big signing AND a big trade. I would put almost no hope in a Soto signing, but I think given the market, the payroll, and where the org is at pretty much anything else feels feasible.
  3. Bertz
    You...you know the starting pitchers do work in the pitch lab too right?
  4. Bertz
    Yesterday it felt like he actually had great command of the curve for maybe the first time this year. Early in the year they were all in the dirt or as you're alluding to get me over pitches way behind in the count. Yesterday he was aggressive with it on the edges and hitters could no longer flip a coin on sinker/change.
  5. Bertz
    Pretty fortunate timing here. What Nido lacks in knowing Cubs pitchers he makes up for in knowing Mets hitters. I wonder if he gets two starts this weekend to try and take advantage and get him into the mix quickly. The other thing that's interesting is there are some signs that there's a lot more in the tank offensively for Nido than he's ever shown before. Compared to '21-'23 his contact is up, his chase is down, his groundballs are down, and his exit velo is WAY up. He's got a .317 xwOBA which is not just better than league average for a catcher it's better than league average for everybody. David Stearns isn't dumb so I'm sure there's something I'm missing but it's interesting.
  6. Bertz
    Yeah he's coming out of it. I still desperately want catching help to replace Gomes, but I think Amaya's issues were temporary and he was underwater with the newly added defensive responsibility and it affected his bat.
  7. Bertz
    I am not as high on either guy as some others are, but really nice to have something to look at on the hitting front at MB besides Cristian and Rosario.
  8. Bertz
    The team just broadly is 18th in wOBA but 10th in xwOBA. Last year they had a .326 actual vs. a .325 expected so it's not a "this is just who they are" deal. I'd guess there's a certain amount that's whether and a certain amount that's just luck, but the offense should pick up just from natural regression. The other positive under the hood number is how much velo they've faced. Trueblood initially flagged this but the average fastball the Cubs have seen this year is highest in the league at 95.1 MPH. #2 is the Nats at 94.8. The gap between the #1 Cubs and #2 Nats is a slightly bigger than the gap between the Nats and the #12 Royals. Velocity isn't everything but in the sample sizes we're talking about this is a huge gap and a big contributor to what we've seen from the offense.
  9. Bertz
    Well that's a fair point! I'm going to blame the afternoon I've had at work for making me conspiratorial. Also I think I'm the one guy on this board who likes Brewer so yay I guess.
  10. Bertz
    Ben Brown's realistic cap for innings this year is 130-140? He's already at 55 about 40% of the way through the season. Not that I'd ever accuse the team of faking injuries, but this might just make it so they don't have to yoyo him between starting and relieving the rest of the year to manage innings.
  11. Bertz
  12. Bertz
    The Cubs literally traded for the best bat on the trade market just last year.
  13. Bertz
    It's been a "seller's market" basically every year of the new CBA, maybe even further back. It's just not gonna happen. Like if Jed wants Robert or Luzardo or someone else with an under-market contract and multiple years of control I'm not sure there's a name we can totally take off the table, but Vlad or any of the rentals are not going to get there.
  14. Bertz
    You do not need to worry about this. I can't think of the last time a rental cost anywhere approaching that. This is just the silly posturing every GM does until they get serious after the draft. Think about the trades the Cubs have done the last several years. I think Alcantara might have been the only guy who got any Top 100 love, but he was literally all the way down in the Complex leagues. There is a premium for SPs who you feel good about starting a playoff game, otherwise even the best rentals net guys on the very back of tbe Top 100. So like from the Cubs you're looking at probably Triantos as the ceiling of what could possibly be required for a rental unless the Cubs start sniffing around Jack Flaherty. Vlad obviously has 1.5 years before free agency, though I think his salary next year will likely price him pretty in line with a premium rental.
  15. Bertz
    Not a slam dunk Hoerner gets IL'd, there's probably a pre-game session today where they make that call, but we should probably lean towards expecting it.
  16. Bertz
    I was looking at some of the under the hood Cubs numbers yesterday and I did not realize how bad things were in Tampa. They are 29th in xwOBA, behind the White Sox. Like they've never been an offensive firepower team but Arozarena is broken this year and of course there's the whole thing with Wander Franco, and so things have gotten really rough. The pitching has also been quite bad, with an uncharacteristically awful bullpen. The starting pitching is a lot better than the ERAs indicate but this should still probably be a take 2/3 deal for the Cubs. Especially since the they only won one in Cincy.
  17. Bertz
    Yeah I mean some of this is obviously Cubs = Clicks, but I feel like this rebuttal does ignore a lot of organizational health context https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/payroll/blue-jays The Blue Jays roster must completely turn over in the next 2.5 years. They have 7 FAs this winter, 9 next winter, and 5 the year after that. And this is not just the fringes of the roster this is basically everyone of consequence except Schneider and Berrios. Most of that meat falls off the bone next winter with Vladito. The Cubs' situation is largely the opposite. Very strong farm (#2 coming into the year), very little hitting FA the next two winters that you're going to miss, basically just Bellinger. Decent crop of young MLB talent beyond guys who contributed to that farm ranking (Steele, Morel, Assad, Wesneski). Even if the Cubs and Jays are currently at the same spot with their MLB rosters, which I'm not sure I totally buy given the AL East of it all, it's very much a two ships passing deal. Mark Shapiro is a small market GM at heart it's very believable that he chooses a soft reset over going all Dombrowski/Sabean and going full speed right over that organizational cliff.
  18. Bertz
    Yet it still fooled someone on here
  19. Bertz
    Bellinger's not getting traded. Player options at such a high salary are more or less a poison pill. That said, assuming his lackluster defensive start to the season is weird SSS, and given his sprint speed is fine I don't know why it wouldn't be, he seems a decent bet to opt out. He's not hitting as well as last year, but no one looking at him with clear eyes expected him to. The reason he didn't get his big money last winter was that he was so awful in '21 and '22 and he got to his offense in a weird way. If he ends up with 3+ WAR and a 110+ wRC+ and plus defense in CF he should be able to go out get his "Brandon Nimmo plus Inflation" contract. Particularly with the qualifying offer off his back.
  20. Bertz
    If he doesn't turn back into '21 Vlad sometime in the next 15 months I think he tops out in the low 9 figures. I think everyone is in agreement that guy from '21 is still in there somewhere, and regardless of anything he's going to hit the market quite young, but there's only so much you can pay a DH with a non-elite bat.
  21. Bertz
    Yeah I believe in a writeup of the Arraez trade a couple weeks ago Eric Longenhagen said something to the extent of "the only reason the Marlins don't have the worst farm in the league is because the Angels exist. Either would easily be worst most years." That's always a plus with a seller, because it makes it more likely that they take a quantity over quality deal, like to bring this closer to home think the Yu Darvish trade. The other thing with the Angels is that they're very late to the pitching development revolution happening. So if you were for instance wondering if Reid Detmers is fixable the answer is probably "yes, and fairly easily too." Speaking of Detmers, that would be part of my ideal move. The obvious prize from Anaheim is Logan O'Hoppe. He would command quite a haul, I'd guess one of our MLB ready pitchers and one of our bats in the upper minors and then some filler. The problem with a move like that is we need that MLB ready pitching depth ourselves. But if you did something like O'Hoppe and Detmers for Wicks and Alcantara and change? That feels more doable mid-season from a pitching depth standpoint.
  22. Bertz
    Short of an ill timed injury Canario is not going to be in the org on August 1st. Hes also clearly MLB ready. If I'm a team selling and looking to acquire a young OF in the process, I'd MUCH prefer 4 months of Canario with minor league options than just 2. And obviously Jed would prefer two months of the inevitable reliever Alexander's going to net. But alas this trade won't involve the Mariners or Padres so everyone has to wait 6 weeks to get serious for no good reason.
  23. Bertz
    To your point towards the end there, I think Vladito making $25-30M next season is more feature than bug for Jed. He's scared of years not AAVs. Vlad would function as this TDL's prize, but also sort of double as this winter's "big signing" and give Jed a bit of cover to hang more mid market on the FA shopping list.
  24. Bertz
    You absolutely were not. There was some discussion to that effect about Steele? Did you take your Prevagen this morning?
  25. Bertz
    Nightingale? And it's not about the White Sox? This should be a prime believe the opposite situation. The Cubs are going to somehow prevent the Jay's from trading Guerrero. Like Luis Robert it's not an ideal fit but it can work defensively and it's a major offensive boost so we shouldn't dismiss it out of hand. Unlike Robert, I think the price will be much more in Jed's comfort zone. Like even if you give him an arbitrary value bump for starpower / name recognition you're not worried about having to dip into Caissie or Horton or PCA. You're talking like I dunno, Triantos and one of our second-tier SP prospects like Birdsell? That 2025 salary looking like something in the $25-30M range is very problematic from a trade value standpoint.
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