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Bertz

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Everything posted by Bertz

  1. Bertz
    There were some very early murmurs around Hoerner to Seattle. If those were accurate you've got to think it'll be ratcheted up.
  2. Bertz
    Baseball is a game of thin margins, and most execs got to where they are by piling up a bunch of 52/48 type victories. The unfortunate side effect is they are, by and large, terrified of doing anything that isn't a slam dunk win. They NEED deadlines to act like adults and consummate deals. That's why more and more all the offseason activity happens around key dates as well (winter meetings, holiday break, nontender deadline, spring training reporting).
  3. Bertz
    Cool glad we didn't cash Canario in over the winter when it was already obvious he had no place on this team and was inevitable trade bait.
  4. Bertz
    Yeah I think all indications around Happ have been that the NTC was for personal reasons not for leverage like a lot of guys use them for.
  5. Bertz
    Hoerner makes sense for them but I don't see an OF like Happ. I think they are a VERY sensible Taillon suitor though, maybe the most.
  6. Bertz
    Looks like the latter Also yikes to this
  7. Bertz
    Do we know if this is an opener deal or a full on bullpen game? Because Zastryzny has been in pure short relief to this point in the year, even in the minors.
  8. Bertz
    I could totally see it. But even premium prices on a second division starter is still not anything worth stressing over too much.
  9. Bertz
    I was briefly tempted into this line of thought a few weeks ago, but I think if you bring in a veteran for that type of role you want someone who A) doesn't have the social capital where you have to worry about cutting them if it doesn't work out and B) might work out in the bullpen. Someone like Patrick Corbin who you can squint and say "if he's airing it out for 2-3 innings and throwing 70% sliders maybe...."
  10. Bertz
    Looking at slot values, they're essentially valuing Southisene as an early 3rd rounder and Lovich as an early 4th. That's fun, along with a lot of the IFAs who are progressing through the complex leagues MB should be pretty fun next year.
  11. Bertz
    Re: 3B....Luis Rengifo maybe? He's more of a supersub who's played primary 3B because of Anthony Rendon's issues. He's a switch hitter who absolutely mauls lefties (157 wRC+ going back to the start of '22) and is adequate against righties (94 wRC+). He's under control through the end of next year and as an Angel is surely available. It's a low ceiling "3B equivalent to Mike Tauchman" type move that would obviously necessitate going bigger elsewhere, but if like me you don't like any of the bigger options and want Shaw or Smith to ultimately own 3B he's probably about the perfect type of stopgap.
  12. Bertz
    Fair enough. Milwaukee and Boston are 23rd and 25th in this measure. They lack an extreme monster power bat (Devers is a great hitter but not an extreme raw power goof) and are two of the three biggest teamwide xwOBA overperformers.
  13. Bertz
    This is not the secret sauce you're convinced it is. You know what team leads the league in the rate they pull their fly balls? The Mariners (22nd in wRC+). The two teams directly in front and behind the Cubs? The Phillies (6th) and Yankees (3rd).
  14. Bertz
    Since getting to Iowa his contact rates have been much lower than a strikeout rate in the teens would indicate. This was probably always due. I'm not worried longer term, but he is most definitely not a guy who's imminent.
  15. Bertz
    https://www.audacy.com/670thescore/sports/chicago-cubs/jameson-taillon-cubs-relievers-could-be-on-move-at-trade-deadline Levine name checking Teel feels notable. I'd assume it'd be Taillon and additional young pitching Breslow feels strongly about (Wesneski?), as there's no way Taillon gets Teel directly.
  16. Bertz
    I don't love a pure DH as the way to improve the team. That said the A's are a team that is likely to just want value and not be picky about what it looks like, i.e. they see no difference between 2 quarters and 5 dimes. Also his salary is nothing, even with his breakout we're probably talking $6-8M next year? He's a major addition that you can do a lot on top of, which you can't necessarily say for a lot of the others.
  17. Bertz
    Funny I was just looking at him yesterday. He seems at minimum to be a lefty mashing utility man with a chance to be a low end starter to bridge us to Shaw or Smith. Padres need some OF depth, Canario for Rosario doesn't seem that far from fair? Maybe we tack on a reliever?
  18. Bertz
    Pretty decent chance this is Taillon’s last start as a Cub. He's slated to go again Monday night but if a move gets made for him I imagine it's before then.
  19. Bertz
    I think it's actually quite likely he opts out this fall, assuming he doesn't tank down the stretch coming off the finger injury. If nothing else the fact that the market for him right up until the injury was robust even with the contract structure in place tells you that he can go out and beat a raw $52M in free agency. You're anchoring off of last year's offensive production, but respectfully only huge homers thought he was going to repeat that. If 130 was the fair expectation he would have gotten $200M+ easily. The heavy analysis pointed to something like a 110 or 115 and low and behold look where we're at. The main reason Bellinger's market didn't materialize last winter is that '21 and '22 were so horrendously awful, he provided an inordinate amount of downside risk. This season he has largely put a return to that form to bed. Combined with already burning his qualifying offer (valued at ~$20M), and he should comfortably be able to exceed what's left on his deal. Maybe he wants to try for a bigger platform year and wait until next winter, but I'd guess age makes that a losing proposition and he ultimately opts out.
  20. Bertz
    There wasn't really an option with the doubleheader before the break but man Assad could have used a rehab start or two. Bullpen is rolling. Definitely need to move Leiter and Neris in what is very much a seller's market.
  21. Bertz
    I think most of the measurement error on batted balls was on popups rather than grounders, and with hawkeye has largely been eliminated either way. I'm also not aware of limits on GB exit velo except at the very extreme ends. Like I've never seen a 120 on a grounder but there are 115s pretty regularly. The 90th percentile measure is largely to eliminate outliers. You will sometimes have a guy with 1-2 balls above a certain threshold and everything else well below, so this is meant to account for that. There's not a ton of difference between doing like 90th or 80th, I believe Ben Clemens did an article on it, I think 90th was just what the first guy did and so it has stuck as the norm. There is an aging curve on exit velo, I don't remember the details off hand but Lance Brozdowski had a short primer on it in one of his prospect lists for Marquee a year or two back and I remember it knocked some shine off the James Triantos apple when he was in A ball.
  22. Bertz
    This is what I don't get about the "moar prospects!" stuff is that we have a wave of guys pretty imminent already. Maybe you're bored of them because you've been following them for 3 years but there's not really much reason to think e.g. Heston Kjerstad has significantly more of a chance at being a superstar than Owen Caissie. And the few guys who are legitimately in a class above anyone we have just do not get made available. Mayyyybbbbee the O's would do Basallo for Steele? But other than that it's guys who are not going anywhere.
  23. Bertz
    I think it's a good idea if 3 conditions are met: 1. The team, having access to their medicals, is not worried about Alzolay and Merryweather for next year beyond the general worry you have around hard throwing relievers 2. The team is going to embrace the 2nd half youth movement in the pen. I want at least 3 and ideally 4 of Hodge/Bigge/Palencia/Kilian/Roberts/etc. in the pen at any given time, and use the opportunity to give those guys leverage opportunities even if they haven't totally earned them 3. Most important, and to your point, Leiter needs to return something legitimately fun. Wesneski and Brown were not super highly rated in preseason lists, but both were mid-breakout when we acquired them and after a few hours of sleuthing it became clear they were very very legit returns. I want someone back who we're all like "Leiter's great but if you can get THAT for a 33 year old reliever you totally have to"
  24. Bertz
    Related to the Athletic article is this podcast hit with Mooney. I listened to these two dingbats talk for 20 minutes so you all don't have to. Not a ton of insight (shocker!) but the things that stood out: - Jesse made it sound like Mark Leiter is definitely gone, and Neris might get moved too - He mentioned Hoerner, Taillon, and Bellinger as guys who probably don't go anywhere but could, which tracks with other reporting. However he mentioned Morel along with them, which I don't think we've heard any smoke around
  25. Bertz
    The luxury tax thing is overstated I think. The extent they appear to be over the line, if they are at all, is tiny. Essentially any cost saving move probably drops them back under. So like they don't need to move Bellinger or Taillon, honestly saving just like $2-3M on a Smyly or Neris is probably plenty. So I'd guess the framing here is more to indicate that if someone does want to play ball on Bellinger or Taillon Jed's willing to pay down their '24 salary. Speaking of Bellinger and Taillon, I think they are the big ones to watch. Depending in what exactly you have planned for this winter you may prefer to have those salaries back in your pocket. Otherwise I think we mainly see roster cleanup stuff, like for instance Canario *must* go if we want to wring any value out of him. Lopez probably needs to go before 60 day IL stints start running out, etc.
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