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Bertz

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Everything posted by Bertz

  1. Bertz
  2. Bertz
    Now that they do have clarity on Neris, I wonder if we see the team get a little aggressive and extend Lopez. Right now, the bullpen for next year probably looks something like this: CL - Hodge SU - Merryweather, Pearson MR - T. Miller, Little, K. Thompson, Neely LR - Wesneski There are other guys who could fit into the mix, Almonte if he comes back from surgery right, any of the young starters who don't make the rotation, etc. But regardless of how you fiddle with the specifics, the above is probably two, maybe even three arms short of where it needs to be? Encouraging work from some combo of Merryweather/Pearson/Neely the next six weeks could make it 1-2 instead of 2-3, but regardless veteran reinforcements will 100% be needed. Lopez is seemingly breaking out. Can the Cubs commit early, absorb a little additional risk, and fill a 2025 relief spot with a portion of the money earmarked for Neris? Lopez might be passing up on the opportunity for some additional 2025 cash, but he'd get to keep working with Hottovy, have a pretty clear line to save opportunities, and have an opportunity for a bigger payday heading into '26.
  3. Bertz
    I think it's a shift in focus to prioritizing the 2025 bullpen with an added bonus of Neely having a decent shot of being better than Neris immediately. While the bullpen has been shockingly effective lately, it hasn't been paired with a lot that makes you confident for next year. Swapping out Neris for Neely gives you another shot at a guy who can put himself in position for you to feel great about him heading into the winter. Frankly I'm hoping they pair this with moving out Roberts for someone Counsell's more willing to give leverage work.
  4. Bertz
  5. Bertz
    Jesse says the option just goes poof
  6. Bertz
    I'd guess that the UC and Wrigley are far enough apart that it's not a huge consideration.
  7. Bertz
    Woah! Love that Neely's coming up, a bit surprised at Neris actually getting axed. I was a bit worried they had to hold onto him for the sake of his option, but this makes that pretty clearly not the case.
  8. Bertz
    Velo is actually fine, but yeah everything else about him is in pretty clear decline. And he's played his last two seasons with the Brewers and Orioles so it's not likely there's some trick to turn back the clock. Like he's still very good, but he's more Justin Steele than Cy Young. Doesn't feel very Jed, so I'd be pretty shocked if he's the guy they finally backed up the Brinks truck for.
  9. Bertz
    Even if you guaranteed me Jed was going to sign a 9 figure contract this winter, I would bet *heavily* against it being Corbin Burnes.
  10. Bertz
    I understand that Neely's roster situation works against the urgency to get him up to MLB. But man it feels like wasting the opportunity the next 6 weeks to see how ready he is would be a huge mistake. Porter Hodge for instance went from debuting to firmly ensconsed in the circle of trust in that amount of time, and he's CLEARLY conquered AAA. Also I was looking at roster stuff for next year, and Kilian and Keegan Thompson are both out of options after this year. They, Kilian in particular, need to be up ASAP. Drew Smyly hasn't pitched poorly enough to be cut but he probably needs to go to free up a roster spot for the kids.
  11. Bertz
    Yeah I think this is kind of what I'm lamenting. His Oswing numbers look comparable to May, but anecdotally the swing decisions have gotten much better. If we could get a graph like this of SEAGER or something I bet it'd really pop? While not as quick and easy as a Fangraphs table I might have found somewhat what I'm looking for, but it doesn't totally back up my assertion. This is swing rate at pitches in the zones Statcast designates as Chase and Waste: April: 3/17 = 17.6% May: 11/47 = 23.4% June: 23/70 = 32.9% July: 30/72 = 41.7% August: 10/51 = 19.6% So he has gotten better, but it's not that different from early in the year. So it's encouraging but not something we can totally write off as ebbs and flows since he has been there before.
  12. Bertz
    I wish there was a quick and easy way to distinguish the egregiosness of a guy's chases out of the zone. Because PCA's chase rates have improved modestly as you've got here, but they're still very high. However it feels like he's cut WAY down on the "Oh my god what are you swinging at?!" swings.
  13. Bertz
    After Kyle's short start and yesterday's rain delay nonsense the bullpen is pretty shredded. Wonder if we get a move or two today.
  14. Bertz
    Matt Shaw's 3rd hit if the day has his OPS up to .925 as I type this
  15. Bertz
    If I'm mathing right I think 1.65? Although Neris has a 2.93 ERA over that time with peripherals to match. Yesterday aside, he's been very good since that horrific week in June with the Rays and Giants.
  16. Bertz
    Because of positional flexibility, the Iowa Cubs can run a Top 100 prospect out at any position on the diamond once Horton's healthy. They could deal two of Triantos/Caissie/Alcantara and that would remain true. There's a lot of reasons to expect 2025 to be much better than 2024, but that's arguably the biggest one.
  17. Bertz
    His fastball sits 90 MPH. Guys like that have to continually prove it because the margin for error is so small.
  18. Bertz
    Bassitt’s another good matchup for PCA, let's keep this hot streak of his going
  19. Bertz
    Daniel Palencia has generally been goof since he came off the IL in June, but over the last month: 8.1 IP, 3 BB, 16 K, 2.16 ERA, 1.10 FIP, 99.5 MPH average fastball
  20. Bertz
    The Statcast AAA leaderboards are really fun now that Iowa is so loaded. With most of the AAA slate for tonight done, Palencia's sitting with 3 of the 4 fastest pitches of the night, Brandon Birdsell has the 4th most swings and misses of any pitcher, and Matt Shaw's 109.5 MPH dong is the 5th hardest hit ball of the night
  21. Bertz
    I like Ethan Roberts, but feels like one of these two, or even Keegan Thompson, ought to be up with the big league club right now instead.
  22. Bertz
    Brandon Birdsell sitting 95-96 in the first inning including a 97.2 at one point
  23. Bertz
    While this conversation shows they're not treating the LT as a hard line, if we do treat it as one just for the sake of having a firm number to work towards there is $45M to spend this offseason if Bellinger opts in and $70M if he opts out. That accounts for arbitration salaries, player benefits, etc.
  24. Bertz
    I wonder what it costs to hang onto Lopez for next year. He's been legitimately great since he came over, and lately he's actually been doing it in leverage time. If he costs ~$5M and is the "other" FA reliever added I think I'd be pretty down.
  25. Bertz
    I'm not much of a traditionalist, but I'm very much of the mind that baseball loses something when the starting pitcher isn't the main protagonist of the day. There's some non soft factors too like the impacts on strikeouts and injury rates.
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