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Bertz

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Everything posted by Bertz

  1. Bertz
    I wouldn't be sure the velo is gone purposely or permanently. There's a pretty good chance it's a near term conditioning issue. To be very clear that's not to imply any sort of lack of effort, but being on the shelf with an oblique significantly cuts down on which exercises you can engage in. Essentially the opposite of when guys come back from TJ throwing harder than ever because they took the opportunity to get the lower 3/4s of their body absolutely jacked.
  2. Bertz
    It's a good question. I'd guess everyone recognizes it by now, but it might not change how they act on it? Today's a great example, the Dodgers have only so much rope they can give Bobby Miller. They might know "if we give him two months to go out there and pitch and not look over his shoulder he'll probably get it straightened out." But even if that's true can they really tolerate him bombing out those ten starts to get there? It's one reason that of the Cubs prospects Alcantara probably needs to be traded. Next year is already his last option year, so he needs to be a permanent MLBer by opening day '26. He probably needs to go to a team that can let him bounce up and down next year based on his developmental needs, and if need be take some additional lumps in the first half of '26.
  3. Bertz
    As much as I'm the patience guy and make snide remarks about fans getting overly worked up about every streak and (especially) slump, I don't think the PCA situation is entirely that. There is an ahistoric (and growing?) gap between AAA and MLB. A certain level of failure for a rookie has always been the expectation, but I think we're seeing deeper and longer struggles than ever. We all basically need to reset our expectations for rookie hitters broadly. PCA's probably a notable example but not an extreme one.
  4. Bertz
    Bobby Miller has been having a rough go of it all year, and it hasn't let up since he came off the IL. It is mostly a matter of giving up a ton of dongs, and that is usually more luck than skill. It wouldn't be crazy for him to have a good game but I'd certainly rather have Wicks going tonight.
  5. Bertz
    This was ADORABLE
  6. Bertz
    I saw Bryan Smith suggest Friday as the day to bring him up as a soft landing and I love that idea.
  7. Bertz
    Yeah it's gotta be. I think with Mastrobuoni and Vazquez up with the big league club there's probably not a ton of backup options at various infield spots.
  8. Bertz
    Honestly with his shoulder that might be a thing? Though it's in line with '22 so it might be a SSS "limited opportunities to really uncork one" deal. Either way that's a run or two a year not 10. These are his CF fielding runs prorated to 1200 innings the last few years '21: +4 (28.0 ft/s sprint speed) '22: +6 (28.1 ft/s) '23: +5 (28.3 ft/s) '24: -3 (28.4 ft/s) Really hard to not assume SSS here.
  9. Bertz
    One kind of under-discussed piece of the Bellinger opt-out discourse is that a big hit to his WAR is tepid defensive grades that don't seem to be based on any loss of skill. Some of it is circumstance, the finger injury pushing him to DH for a month and PCA pushing him to right, but also just generally his grades in CF are down for the year. But he's just as fast as he was last year, his sprint speed is actually up a fraction of an MPH from '21-'23. I'm not really aware of any good reason a 29 year old can lose competency in CF without speed-loss being the driver. If he were a full time +5 CF with his current offense he'd be a smidge under 3 WAR right now and very likely to cross that threshold by the end of the month.
  10. Bertz
    For sure. It does look like he's going to settle in as a 1st division starter rather than anyone with major starpower, though 1B is pretty starved for starpower at the moment. It's Vlad, Bryce, Freeman, and then a big gap before a handful of guys like Busch in that ~120 wRC+ neighborhood. Unless you're literally getting Vlad I don't think there's anything to be done at the position besides finding someone better than Wisdom to take some of those RHH at bats (Taylor Ward?).
  11. Bertz
    I don't know why it's not listed as official yet but Yamamoto is starting today for the Dodgers.
  12. Bertz
    Didn't some people around here start getting on Busch the last few days? lol
  13. Bertz
    There is zero inkling that a primo GM is available for PTR to throw a bag of money at. And we're well past the era where you just hire the #2 in Tampa and assume they are automatically awesome. I think for Tom to dump Jed early it would have to be a dramatic situation like Theo, Maddon, or Counsell. I don't think some pragmatic "Ya know, Jerry Dipoto and Carter Hawkins would really compliment each other really well" type of deal spurs him into action.
  14. Bertz
    Right, Crane is Jed's equivalent on the business side. So there may be friction between them, e.g. Jed not happy with the amount of cash coming his way or Crane not being happy having to try and market a team that mostly fell out of playoff contention shortly after Memorial Day.
  15. Bertz
    Presumably this is because they feel comfortable with their data-based scouting, hence the Complex Leagues being the ones excluded. I know a lot of teams moved in this direction ~5 years ago (Houston did it closer to 10) but I thought the pendulum was swinging back towards a blend of data and live-looks.
  16. Bertz
    Curious what the definition of a dropped pass is, because I can think of at least two off the top of my head: one to DJ Moore over the middle on like the 3rd or 4th offensive play and of course the Keenan Allen one in the end zone at the end of the half (maybe not a drop because he totally whiffed it?).
  17. Bertz
    Nightengale tends to be more reliable on stuff like this? Like he's led the charge on a lot of White Sox news for instance. I think he's super dumb and gullible and agents abuse the hell out of that, but something like this that isn't really worth gamifying I'd tend to buy. Friction could be anything. I'd guess some combination of Jed not liking his resources and Tom not liking the deliberate pace of this build, rather than anything within baseball ops. Maybe there's some Jed/Craig beef on which coaches stick around next year?
  18. Bertz
    Asked and received!
  19. Bertz
  20. Bertz
    I do think the power bat is the piece that is most likely to be something we're not currently considering. Or, glass half empty, the piece Jed skimps on: - From a trade standpoint Rooker & Vladito might simply not be available - Soto is just not happening - The second tier FA bats (Alonso, Santander, Teoscar, O'Neill) are all going to get qualifying offers. Jed's generally not keen on paying that price for non-stars. And I think the lack of urgency in getting under the LT (which exacerbates the cost of a QO) at the deadline points towards the team avoiding player who have been tagged None of the above aside from Soto seems impossible. But it does feel like if the goal with the offense is to add a jolt of power without materially stepping back in other ways, it might require some creativity. That may be a name we're not considering that accomplishes this, or maybe the team has to take more of a portfolio approach and add 40-50 dongs over the course of 3-4 moves instead of 1-2.
  21. Bertz
    Walker Buehler is totally washed, but of course so is Hendricks so today still looks fairly bleak.
  22. Bertz
    Following up on this, Nate Pearson as a Cub after today's game: 18.1 IP, 17 Ks, 2 BB, 3 HR, 1.96 ERA, 3.55 xFIP It's been until recently largely low leverage situations, but he's not pitching that much worse than Hodge.
  23. Bertz
    That's not a thing. Also I won't say 0% chance but there's a damn near 0% chance they trade him over the winter. If they wanted to move him they would have done it at the deadline when prices for SPs were astronomical.
  24. Bertz
    Cleveland last month I believe is the only straight up one all year, and then yeah I think you could argue that ST. Louis one.
  25. Bertz
    Obviously not watching this game but love that Nate Pearson got such a high leverage opportunity and rocked it. Him closing a big chunk of the gap between Hodge and everyone else in the pen would bode well for next year.
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