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Bertz

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Everything posted by Bertz

  1. Bertz
    Yeah velo is more 95 than 98 too. I think there's quite a bit of rust and it's going to be a couple weeks before he's back to being a circle of trust guy.
  2. Bertz
    He looks like a pretty ideal 4th outfielder/shortside platoon mate to me. If there is reason to be bearish on his defense in CF or anything like that I'm open to moving him down, but IMO he reads very much as a Reed Johnson/Kevin Pillar type. The Cubs 40 man is not nearly tight enough for me to have appetite to just let him walk away for nothing, especially since with how left-handed our starting OF looks to be for the foreseeable future.
  3. Bertz
    This sucks. Beyond being a good pitcher he seems like a good evangelist for a lot of the work the coaching staff does. Like TT said hopefully the timing works out where they can sign him to a MiLB deal to stash him and free up the roster spot.
  4. Bertz
    I'm definitely comfortable with him as a backup, but he'd be pretty unacceptable as a starter short of hitting like prime Buster Posey for the next two months. He's shown too much downside risk, even by the lowly standards of the position. But a depth chart of TBD starter and Amaya in MLB and Moises and some defensive minded veteran at Iowa would be a great way to turn the position around for next year. Much like the bullpen it all looks WAY better when you add someone up top and slot everyone else down a peg.
  5. Bertz
    A lot of people point to the Angels series last year as the low point of the first half. That's not necessarily wrong, but for me it was the game where Joe Ryan pantsed us and every Twins lefty with a pulse hit a dong off of Wesneski. Let's try and avoid today being any sort of comparable debacle.
  6. Bertz
    I'm curious what the appetite is for spending on a closer this winter. Behind obviously catcher, relief is the main hole on the roster heading into next year. There's not a Hader level reliever on the FA market, and Jed wouldn't/shouldn't sign that type of guy anyway. But are the "still good but old" guys like Jansen and Pressly in play? They make real money ($15-20M) on a per year basis but should only take 1-2 years. Relatedly, the bullpen feels like it's two guys short. How substantive is that second guy? Is it just some generic lefty (e.g. Andrew Chafin at this point), or does Jed take what happened in April/May to heart and recognize the bullpen needs to be more than 3 deep with trustable options from day 1.
  7. Bertz
    People hate hearing about xwOBA et al, especially since it was such a hot topic with Morel too, but those Statcast numbers have said Swanson's been largely fine all season. And as a guy in the 9th year of his career you can safely chalk up half a season of underperformance in that area to small sample size nonsense (even if "luck" feels problematic). The groundballs though have been a real issue, and are likely the difference between a luck neutral wRC+ in the 100-105 range versus something closer to 115. That's been the especially heartening.
  8. Bertz
    Speaking of popup prospects. Though this very much does appear to be a man beating up boys deal.
  9. Bertz
    I do not know what to do with this. He's 22 so it's not like he's beating up on kids. Every peripheral is strong, so while he's obviously getting a fair bit of BABIP fortune this isn't like the Ed Howard hot streak built entirely on top of it. It's AA, which is further away from the majors than it used to be but still a hell of a lot closer than e.g. Haydn McGeary's nuclear stretch a few years ago. He's just...dominating. This feels like a level of hot that a non-prospect shouldn't be able to reach even for a short period, and all the usual things you point to with like a Jake Slaughter or whatever are not there. I'd love to see him get more time away from 1B now that the Tenn lineup has cleared up, but at the same time part of me is like "don't touch anything!" until this dies down.
  10. Bertz
    So it's not the headline here obviously but Franklin's gotta join them too right? Or does he have to stick it out at Tenn to make it that much less likely he'd get picked in the Rule 5 and save a 40 man spot?
  11. Bertz
    I think, behind catcher, a lefty killer that can fit into the OF/DH mix is my biggest offseason want. So while PCA for Robert certainly doesn't look like a fit anymore, an OF with PCA and Robert might make a lot of sense pending what happens with Bellinger.
  12. Bertz
  13. Bertz
    So Connor Noland is really starting to get my attention. In his brief AAA tenure he is not just finessing his way to success he is getting above average swing and miss *in the zone*. Statcast gas also mistaken most of fhis fastballs as cutters. We've seen with Steele and Hodge how those types of fastballs can play way above their velocity. So while Noland does still right at 90 MPH there's hope it's not actually a 30 grade fastball.
  14. Bertz
    Averaging over 95 and more than 60% of his pitches have been in the zone. He is SHOVING
  15. Bertz
    The Cards have a fairly tough August/September. Complete this sweep and they're probably dead in the water. So let's do that.
  16. Bertz
    I could see Ballesteros coming up next month with expanded rosters. Catcher is an easy position to carry 3 at, and as a catcher there's legitimate value in soft skills and stuff he would learn outside of game action. There's no reason to think he would be a positive offensive contributor in the short term though. He is holding his own at AAA, not excelling. That's fine it's been just over a month and he's 20 years old, but let's all be clear headed about this.
  17. Bertz
  18. Bertz
    I don't love doing the arbitrary endpoints game between seasons but wow. This basically covers the game or two before Seiya's mental reset last year and everything since.
  19. Bertz
    He's finally getting the ball in the air. People don't want to hear it but Swanson's been mostly fine at the plate this year and largely been the victim of a lot of the same batted ball issues that bit Morel. But the groundballs have been an actual problem, and even if he wasn't getting short shrift in the luck department the for his offense being "roughly league average" vs. "legitimately good" is keeping it off the ground.
  20. Bertz
    I think the reason Tauchman didn't get moved is less attachment and morethat you definitely want either him or Bellinger on next year's team, and timing wise we're not going to know Bellinger's fate until November. With PCA, even with his bat showing increasing signs of life, you have to have contingency in CF next year. You use the Tauchman = Gomes scenario but I think even more likely is PCA = Amaya. Now thankfully the org health is pretty great in CF. Even if both those things happen like we saw this year at catcher, unlike this yeat you will have Alcantara/Triantos/Franklin all at Iowa and CF capable. But still that veteran ready to step in and take primary duty is a must,
  21. Bertz
    What a difference a few days can make. Bellinger's now got a 117 wRC+. Approximately another big game from a line where you look at it and go "well of course he's going to opt out."
  22. Bertz
    Yeah Tuesday being moving day, draftees getting assigned and the Shaw's of the world getting their overdue promotions, probably makes the most sense. I think if the calendar had fallen differently in regards to the trade deadline it probably would have happened this week.
  23. Bertz
    I know logistics make it tough but this is a long long long overdue change.
  24. Bertz
    All four Cardinal starters are guys who work down without much velocity. Very good matchup weekend for Pete, hopefully he keeps it going.
  25. Bertz
    This is great and I think looks right. There's probably some nits to pick (I doubt Brennen Davis is still in the org for instance) but nothing major. Also woof to those Tennesee/SB outfields. It's Rosario, a big gap, then Bateman, and then....nothing. Thank god there's a log jam ahead of them so the two year gap shouldn't hurt.
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