Bertz
-
Posts
13,447 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
39
Content Type
Profiles
Joomla Posts 1
Chicago Cubs Videos
Chicago Cubs Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits
2026 Chicago Cubs Top Prospects Ranking
News
2023 Chicago Cubs Draft Picks
Guides & Resources
2024 Chicago Cubs Draft Picks
The Chicago Cubs Players Project
2025 Chicago Cubs Draft Pick Tracker
2026 Chicago Cubs Draft Tracker: Picks & Bonuses
Blogs
Events
Forums
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by Bertz
-
I'm curious what about the Padres' plans change based on the Sasaki decision. Like does landing Sasaki make a Cease trade more likely because you feel like you've backfilled his star power and can settle for improving depth? Or does it make it less likely because you've filled your biggest need for league minimum, so suddenly dumpster diving for e.g. a LFer (run it back with Peralta?) doesn't feel as bad? I think you can logic it either direction if they miss too. But yeah I agree a Dylan Cease trade feels kind of perfect from the Cubs' end. I actually like that he's in his walk year. In addition to keeping costs manageable, it feels like having the option to pivot to Cease if you fail to extend Tucker has value. And of course replacing Assad in the rotation with Cease is a massive massive upgrade. Like you say the Cubs would be heavy favorites in the Central and probably have an argument for being as good as any non-Dodger team.
-
Scratch this one off the list
-
It's absolutely astonishing to me that people watched last year's team and don't see the value in having depth that isn't horsefeathers. Like you couldn't find a better case study and yet the majority of the fanbase just completely whiffs on the lesson.
-
Gio Urshela should not be a meaningful part of any team's 1B plans
-
Josh Rojas has about 1.5x as much WAR the last three years, is nearly 3 years younger, and as a lefty more naturally compliments our current infielders.
-
This isn't really true at all. 23 of MLBTR's top 50 free agents are still on the board. Options are slim if you want one guy to give ~$25M per year on sure. But there's still plenty of talent available and even with the $35-40M we think Jed still has to play with there's still some tough decisions to make to fill out the roster.
-
There are three times where the team has not spent up to the LT: 1. Circa ~2015 when Bryant et al were so cheap the team more or less couldn't spend up to the line without getting worse 2. When the team was really bad in 2012/2013/2022 3. In 2021 coming off of COVID with in person attendance plans being very tenuous Ive yet to hear anything of substance about why this year would be a new 4th category. It's mainly just specious "it hasn't happened yet so it won't happen" ninniness.
-
Canario's fungible at this point. I expect he has a fight ahead of him to make the team, and even if he makes the team there's a decent chance he's out of the org by Memorial Day.
-
Yeah this is pretty close to the mental math I've got in my head as well. I expect they add another domestic SP regardless of the Sasaki decision but that's my only quibble. A pretty easy illustration for signing Thielbar is the bench and Trueblood's article yesterday. The team needs a backup 1B. Connor Joe would probably cost $3M, while Mark Canha would cost closer to $10M. Would you rather have Thielbar and Canha or Minter and Joe? It's not a trick question, either is defensible, these are just the types of tradeoffs we're talking.
-
-
I dunno in the year 2024 I'd prefer the team actually put some thought into their signings rather than just sort a leaderboard by ERA and make their decisions that way.
-
Funny thing I just saw: Thielbar had a higher Stuff+ than Minter last year A big part of that is that Minter was diminished last year likely due to his hip injury, but also the pitch models really like Thielbar.
-
That's pretty melodramatic
-
Thielbar's good when kept to LOOGY work, and intermittently can be effective against righties. Very similar to Hoby Milner who they were tied to earlier this winter. He's very much our Tyson Miller from the other side of the plate rather than a full setup man. I'd expect he gets ~$5M and the other reliever we end up is pretty unequivocally the closer as opposed to a Chris Martin type.
-
Connor Joe has a 190 wRC+ against the Cubs and an 88 wRC+ against all non-Cub opponents for his career. I don't think that's meaningful but I thought it was funny. I think Joe's probably on the Mt. Rushmore of active Cub killers with Ozzie Albies and Paul Goldschmidt. I think Canha is obviously the preferred option, but I'd guess he takes $8-10M to sign while Joe's more like $2-3M. Feels like this decision is pretty closely linked to the second SP. If we end up with someone low salary, like your Feltner idea a few weeks back, the team can basically grab whoever it wants for the bench and bullpen. Someone on a closer to market rate salary will require some skimping elsewhere and settling for Joe over Canha is one of the less painful places to skimp.
-
Yeah Steamer has him at 2.0 WAR/600 PAs and ZiPS has him at 1.5. That's a quality second division starter and realistically if you start setting your sights much higher you start getting into guys who aren't going to settle for sharing the position with Shaw.
-
So you'd like less transparency into the team's decision making?
-
Oh?
-
-
All 30 teams are operating based on basic concepts like the marginal value of a win. The differences between teams are the specifics of their models and how much they use that kind of language publicly. But it's more or less settled science.
-
Yeah Canha/Rojas/Kelly/Brujan is a pretty strong bench. Should still leave plenty of financial room for the rest of the pitching we want too. I wonder if they'd let Canha play CF. He's fast enough for it but hasn't done it regularly in several years. Maybe at Wrigley with its tiny CF?
-
Yes, sorry, we're in a bad time of year for me to be using ambiguous phrases like "next year" lol. I meant a budget crunch in 2026. I'd love if the team is willing to loosen the purse strings, especially since it's obvious it would only need to be for one year, but I'm now firmly in believe it when I see it mode for the team exceeding the LT by more than a nominal amount. Tom's done it once but only once. And I'd love a relief ace, but honestly there's value in just getting quality. One of the things Jed said in his end of season presser is to avoid another situation like last April he almost needs to approach the bullpen assuming three guys will go down to injury/ineffectiveness right at the start of the year. I'd very much expect, especially when you consider Jed's aversion to multi-year commitments, something like $8M each to Martin and Minter than $16M to Scott. That said there were some rumors last winter that Jed was considering going out of his comfort zone to give Counsell a relief ace to lean on, so maybe that's coming now.
-
Following the Kyle Tucker trade, Cubs' GM Carter Hawkins indicated that the team would look to free agency to help backfill the 3B production the team lost with Isaac Paredes headed to Houston. Mark Feinsand reports today that the Cubs are looking at former Mariners and Diamondbacks infielder Josh Rojas. It seems all but certain that Matt Shaw is being eyed as the primary 3B for 2025, but given his limited time in AAA and then risk associated with just handing any rookie a full time job, and strong backup is a necessity. Josh Rojas is a strong defender and a solid hitter, and as a lefty can help compliment Shaw by taking matchups versus tough righties. Rojas can also cover 2B, possibly useful if Nico Hoerner's recovery from surgery stretches into the new season. Rojas was non-tendered by the Mariners last month, and was projected by MLBTR to make $4.3M in arbitration. Therefore even on the open market it's unlikely he costs more than about $5M per year to sign. View full rumor
-
Following the Kyle Tucker trade, Cubs' GM Carter Hawkins indicated that the team would look to free agency to help backfill the 3B production the team lost with Isaac Paredes headed to Houston. Mark Feinsand reports today that the Cubs are looking at former Mariners and Diamondbacks infielder Josh Rojas. It seems all but certain that Matt Shaw is being eyed as the primary 3B for 2025, but given his limited time in AAA and then risk associated with just handing any rookie a full time job, and strong backup is a necessity. Josh Rojas is a strong defender and a solid hitter, and as a lefty can help compliment Shaw by taking matchups versus tough righties. Rojas can also cover 2B, possibly useful if Nico Hoerner's recovery from surgery stretches into the new season. Rojas was non-tendered by the Mariners last month, and was projected by MLBTR to make $4.3M in arbitration. Therefore even on the open market it's unlikely he costs more than about $5M per year to sign. -
So I think the team needs to add another SP either way, but I think if you land Sasaki it impacts A) How deep you're willing to dip into the farm for a trade and B) how much you might value talent vs. durability. I think the other thing is how it impacts other teams. Specifically San Diego, I could see the Sasaki decision impacting their willingness to move Cease or King.
