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Bertz

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Everything posted by Bertz

  1. Bertz
  2. Bertz
    Jesse says the option just goes poof
  3. Bertz
    I'd guess that the UC and Wrigley are far enough apart that it's not a huge consideration.
  4. Bertz
    Woah! Love that Neely's coming up, a bit surprised at Neris actually getting axed. I was a bit worried they had to hold onto him for the sake of his option, but this makes that pretty clearly not the case.
  5. Bertz
    Velo is actually fine, but yeah everything else about him is in pretty clear decline. And he's played his last two seasons with the Brewers and Orioles so it's not likely there's some trick to turn back the clock. Like he's still very good, but he's more Justin Steele than Cy Young. Doesn't feel very Jed, so I'd be pretty shocked if he's the guy they finally backed up the Brinks truck for.
  6. Bertz
    Even if you guaranteed me Jed was going to sign a 9 figure contract this winter, I would bet *heavily* against it being Corbin Burnes.
  7. Bertz
    I understand that Neely's roster situation works against the urgency to get him up to MLB. But man it feels like wasting the opportunity the next 6 weeks to see how ready he is would be a huge mistake. Porter Hodge for instance went from debuting to firmly ensconsed in the circle of trust in that amount of time, and he's CLEARLY conquered AAA. Also I was looking at roster stuff for next year, and Kilian and Keegan Thompson are both out of options after this year. They, Kilian in particular, need to be up ASAP. Drew Smyly hasn't pitched poorly enough to be cut but he probably needs to go to free up a roster spot for the kids.
  8. Bertz
    Yeah I think this is kind of what I'm lamenting. His Oswing numbers look comparable to May, but anecdotally the swing decisions have gotten much better. If we could get a graph like this of SEAGER or something I bet it'd really pop? While not as quick and easy as a Fangraphs table I might have found somewhat what I'm looking for, but it doesn't totally back up my assertion. This is swing rate at pitches in the zones Statcast designates as Chase and Waste: April: 3/17 = 17.6% May: 11/47 = 23.4% June: 23/70 = 32.9% July: 30/72 = 41.7% August: 10/51 = 19.6% So he has gotten better, but it's not that different from early in the year. So it's encouraging but not something we can totally write off as ebbs and flows since he has been there before.
  9. Bertz
    I wish there was a quick and easy way to distinguish the egregiosness of a guy's chases out of the zone. Because PCA's chase rates have improved modestly as you've got here, but they're still very high. However it feels like he's cut WAY down on the "Oh my god what are you swinging at?!" swings.
  10. Bertz
    After Kyle's short start and yesterday's rain delay nonsense the bullpen is pretty shredded. Wonder if we get a move or two today.
  11. Bertz
    Matt Shaw's 3rd hit if the day has his OPS up to .925 as I type this
  12. Bertz
    If I'm mathing right I think 1.65? Although Neris has a 2.93 ERA over that time with peripherals to match. Yesterday aside, he's been very good since that horrific week in June with the Rays and Giants.
  13. Bertz
    Because of positional flexibility, the Iowa Cubs can run a Top 100 prospect out at any position on the diamond once Horton's healthy. They could deal two of Triantos/Caissie/Alcantara and that would remain true. There's a lot of reasons to expect 2025 to be much better than 2024, but that's arguably the biggest one.
  14. Bertz
    His fastball sits 90 MPH. Guys like that have to continually prove it because the margin for error is so small.
  15. Bertz
    Bassitt’s another good matchup for PCA, let's keep this hot streak of his going
  16. Bertz
    Daniel Palencia has generally been goof since he came off the IL in June, but over the last month: 8.1 IP, 3 BB, 16 K, 2.16 ERA, 1.10 FIP, 99.5 MPH average fastball
  17. Bertz
    The Statcast AAA leaderboards are really fun now that Iowa is so loaded. With most of the AAA slate for tonight done, Palencia's sitting with 3 of the 4 fastest pitches of the night, Brandon Birdsell has the 4th most swings and misses of any pitcher, and Matt Shaw's 109.5 MPH dong is the 5th hardest hit ball of the night
  18. Bertz
    I like Ethan Roberts, but feels like one of these two, or even Keegan Thompson, ought to be up with the big league club right now instead.
  19. Bertz
    Brandon Birdsell sitting 95-96 in the first inning including a 97.2 at one point
  20. Bertz
    While this conversation shows they're not treating the LT as a hard line, if we do treat it as one just for the sake of having a firm number to work towards there is $45M to spend this offseason if Bellinger opts in and $70M if he opts out. That accounts for arbitration salaries, player benefits, etc.
  21. Bertz
    I wonder what it costs to hang onto Lopez for next year. He's been legitimately great since he came over, and lately he's actually been doing it in leverage time. If he costs ~$5M and is the "other" FA reliever added I think I'd be pretty down.
  22. Bertz
    I'm not much of a traditionalist, but I'm very much of the mind that baseball loses something when the starting pitcher isn't the main protagonist of the day. There's some non soft factors too like the impacts on strikeouts and injury rates.
  23. Bertz
    Yeah I think this is the way. Make 6 innings not a mandate but a threshold that you're rewarded for crossing. If your starter fails to make it six, you lose the DH and the first guy out of the pen must be a long reliever. It feels like that has some real teeth but doesn't introduce any icky safety concerns. If you want to employ an opener? That's fine but you need to weigh that cost against playing NL Baseball for a day. Want to rotation some inefficient 4 IP/start guy? Cool but you need to plan for a consistent piggyback. It is a shame that there are not good short term rewards that could be implemented. I feel like anything they did wouldn feel too video-gamey.
  24. Bertz
    I don't broadly have a problem with MLB's various deals with the streaming companies but making a Friday 120 game an Apple exclusive is pretty messed up
  25. Bertz
    I don't have a ton of confidence Kilian will stick as a SP but yeah this is where I'm at. Maybe we start by having him piggyback a time or three and see how that goes, but he should be up and Hendricks should be the guy losing innings for it.
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