Bertz
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Everything posted by Bertz
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I know the Astros are inevitable but it does not look good for them right now
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Bieber seems like a good and realistic option for adding a 2nd SP. Otherwise? Unless you win the Sasaki lottery or make a HUGE investment into the rotation (e.g. a guy like Nate Eovaldi is your "other guy"), it's a bad idea. Everyone is focused on the injury risk of the youths, and that's unfortunately a very real thing we need to worry about. However that needs to be balanced against the performance risk of this other guy. If Assad has a 5 ERA on Memorial Day next year, he probably gets a trip to Iowa, certainly at minimum he gets shifted to the bullpen. If you sign Michael Wacha to a two year deal and he has a 5 ERA on Memorial Day...nothing happens for at least another month. We can all scream "it's a sunk cost it shouldn't matter" until we're blue in the face, but you know how it works in practice with well compensated vets. The Cubs next year have six optionable young SPs of consequence who are more or less major league ready. Each has warts, and there's no law against multiple concurrent injuries, but I think it's much more likely that we get positive production out of the 5/6/7/8/+ rotation spots by rotating the youths than we gey by locking another spot down with a vet. Add in the opportunity cost of that added salary and it's clear cut IMO.
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It can probably be assumed that nearly anyone on one of these teams making decent money is at least somewhat available this winter.
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If Bellinger opts out. and we go with this assumption for how arb plays out, I'm showing payroll at $157M. Add another $5M buffer for bonuses, roster churn, etc. and you're looking at $79M under the LT. There are various places you can quibble or reasonably make different assumptions, but for the sake of having a nice round number in our minds $80M is a good place to start.
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I'd be surprised if Taillon’s not the 4 with Assad the 5. I think Craig might have fully come out and said Assad's earned a spot for next year?
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Feels like this one is heavily dependent on medicals. Shoulders are scary but if his arm looks clean then I feel like that's a good gamble.
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I wouldn't expect two, I think we need to be careful about relying on the young pitchers for too many innings but that feels like overcorrecting. That said a nine figure pitcher contract feels more likely than it has in a long time.
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3 things that seemed more than just press-speak: 1. An implication Cody's going to opt out 2. Wrigley played extremely pitcher friendly this year, which needs to impact how you evaluate both the offense and the pitching from this past season 3. There was a line about making prospect trades, but not ones that are too focused on the short term. I read that to mean more deals in the Busch/Paredes mold
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https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/10/projected-arbitration-salaries-for-2025.html Paredes a bit higher than I expected but generally no surprises. More than half these guys likely get non tendered next month.
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It's kind of nuts that against the Braves right now 3 runs in the fourth inning feels like an insurmountable lead, while last year being up by three runs against them in the fourth inning still felt 60/40 like you were going to lose.
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You're right it would be silly to take that literally. But at the same time it'd be silly for the team to get too far down on any of of those convos before they know who will be on the team and who will be on the market. Like the Bellinger decision for instance has huge implications on the offseason. Both talent on hand and dollars available.
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I'll say if this is the reaction to Jim Adducci getting canned I'm very much looking forward to the first round of waiver wire roulette that occurs before any big signings have gone down. "The team claimed Colten Brewer because they have no intention of signing Kenley Jansen!"
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So if they can fill the ballpark no matter what why make minor moves just for the sake of PR?
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Who are the people that are being placated by these moves? You think anyone is like "You know the problem with this year's Cubs? Mike Napoli, obviously." If they had let go of Tommy Hottovy, maybe you have a point. But these are very much red shirts that no one cares about. You had it right last night when you were saying "Who Cares" and for whatever reason have let the impact of this escalate in your head over the past 24 hours.
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If Heyward hits a slam here Cubs fans will commit mass suicide lol
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You think they replaced their third hitting coach, their 1st base coach, and some unnamed strength and conditioning coaches to win the news cycle? lol
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I'm very surprised at how little chance the Tigers were being given. Like the Astros are obviously a better team, but in a short series having the best pitcher in baseball is a really really big deal.
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Whoops
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In case you were wondering, Hector Neris still walking damn near everything lefty he sees
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Re-reading Brett's notes, and third point that stands out: Basically they're going to look at deals in the Ferris for Busch and Morel for Paredes mold if they trade some of their top prospects. So think more Brent Rooker than Kyle Tucker. More Mackenzie Gore than Framber Valdez.
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I didn't watch, just read Brett Taylor's recap, but the only notable things to me were the implication Cody's probably going to opt out and the fact that they're largely in the TT camp of macro factors making the offense look worse and the pitching look better than topline numbers would indicate.
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It says a lot about Craig, in a good way, that he didn't push Hottovy and Kelly aside just for the sake of finding his own guys.
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My upset pick is Tigers over Astros in the first round. With Yordan looking doubtful and the Tigers' rotation lined up I think they can win a best of three against a better team. And then the Guardians aren't anything special so getting to the ALCS seems pretty doable. Yankees ultimately feel like a relatively good bet to win the pennant though. NL I think it's Padres or Phillies. Dodgers' pitching is too banged up right now. I actually think the Padres are the team currently best built for the playoffs across either league. Though having to play an extra round, even against a decimated Braves team, isn't something to gloss over.
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Napoli is a cool dude but overall nothing major (yet?)
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