Bertz

I would say broadly the thing the team is doing (or maybe more accurate to say not doing) that feels questionable is at SP. On the position player side the team is running a good or very good option out everywhere but catcher, and catcher was kind of impossible to meaningfully upgrade this winter more than they did. Replacing Shaw with Bregman or Busch with Alonso would be simply be fans wanting a shiny new toy and likely not make the team significantly better. Bench help is still needed, but it sounds pretty clear that's still on the way. On the bullpen, I'd have liked Scott or Yates more than Finnegan (sounds like that's where we'll end up), but except at the very extremes closers just don't move the needle that much. They're also famously hard to predict. Josh Hader signed that big contract last winter and ranked in the 30-50 range in most metrics. SP I think more should have clearly been invested. Whichever of Assad/Rea ends up being the 5th starter, it feels like that is pretty easily the worst full-time spot on the roster. There are two questions which could move me towards being okay with punting on a SP trade however: 1. Does the team project themselves significantly ahead of the Brewers currently? 2. Is the team committed to paying inflated prices for a SP at the trade deadline? We've seen a lot in recent years that March/April are a bloodbath for SP injuries as guys get ramped up. IF you think you've got some cushion between you and the Brewers (5+ games?), there's some logic to waiting until July and buying SPs when you know they're healthy.

Looks like Ichiro, Sabathia, and Wagner are pretty close to locks to make it into the HOF tonight. Beltran's right on the edge. Final numbers are usually on average 5ish points lower than the ballot tracker

I like Brett but he's always been like this. He'll be calm and grounded but get WAY too attached to one random dude and snap once they sign somewhere else. Last winter it was Robert Stephenson. And then the non Bretts at BN are just generally dim.

I'm curious how many of these guys the team can even manage to hold onto into the regular season. Right now, once the inevitable FA closer is signed, the MLB pitching staff will be more or less locked in. SP - Steele, Shota, Boyd, Taillon, Rea CL - TBD Free Agent SU - Pearson, Hodge MR - Merryweather, Morgan, Miller, Thielbar LR - K. Thompson Keegan probably doesn't have the tightest grip on a roster spot, but the only MiLB options above are Hodge and Morgan, who are VERY unlikely to open the year in the minors. Additions beyond the one expected require cuts. And Iowa's not much easier to crack! This is my assumption for what Iowa looks like SP - Brown, Wicks, Assad, Horton, Birdsell CL - Neely SU - Palencia, Little MR - E. Roberts, Hollowell, R. Martin LR - Poteet, Kilian So that leaves all of Zastryzny, Festa, Bickford, Richards, and Heller (am I missing anybody?) on the outside looking in to even get a spot at Iowa. There are some possible spots to open up (Martin to Tenn feels fair, demote Kilian while he converts to short relief?), but beyond a couple you'd seem to be harming the development of actual prospects. There will be injury, and having them in camp in case they pop isn't without value, but it feels like we're stress testing the adage that you can't have too much pitching.

They might prefer more velo. Yates has an all-universe level splitter but a below average fastball. And at 38 it's unlikely that improves.

Jonny Long practicing at 3B

Yeah I think Caissie's project for early this year at Iowa should be defensive versatility. Get some real 1B reps in, get some DH reps in (there's a mental component to DH a lot of young guys struggle with). If he's playing 6 days a week at Iowa it should be something like 2 days in right, 1 in left, two 2 at first, and one at DH. He needs to be set up to succeed if any of Happ, Tucker, Busch, or Suzuki go on the IL.

Over the last four years Estevez has a 3.58 ERA, 3.83 FIP, and 4.29 xFIP. I'm too lazy to do the math on his xERA right now, but eyeballing it seems to be in line with his FIP. I also tend to look at xFIP first and proceed from there, but Estevez seems pretty likely to have something to him to mitigate his HR/FB numbers. He's not my first choice but he'd likely be a quality closer. The Phillies are *very* smart with pitchers and they made him their big deadline move last summer.

My general reliever pref list from here 1. Kirby Yates - Very good but old 2. David Robertson - Very good but very old 3. Kyle Finnegan - Just okay but the pitch design guys see lots of potential 4. Kenley Jansen - Good but old 5. Carlos Estevez - Good but in line for a multi-year deal 6. Paul Sewald - Bad 2024, pitch models still love him though

The value of Scott over the other FA closers is approximately 1 win. Bregman's not really much better than Hoerner, so the improvement for the team would be whatever Hoerner brought back in trade.

I would generally lean against Estevez and prefer one of the old guys with their far superior peripherals. That said, he does have pretty high octane stuff, and aside from 2 months with the Phillies has yet to spend any time in an org that knows what it's doing on the pitching dev front. There's probably untapped upside here that doesn't exist with most alternatives, though I doubt it's enough to make a multi-year deal worth it.

It has become abundantly clear that the Cubs are deep in the market for a closer. After playing runner up in the Tanner Scott sweepstakes, Carlos Estevez appears to be the next man up on the closer market. Estevez has a 3.22 ERA and 57 saves the last two years since leaving Colorado. MLB Trade Rumors predicted a 3 year, $27M contract for Estevez at the start of the year. So if the Cubs are indeed pursuing him it would seem to indicate that the team has softened its stance on multi-year contracts to relievers broadly, and not just as a one-off exception for Tanner Scott. View full rumor

Andy Pages is their best position player under 30 and Tyler Glasnow is their SP who had the most IP last year. They're going to be great still, but regular great not historically great.

I think on a 2025 basis there won't be that much difference between Scott and the next tier down. Scott getting 4 years was the big get from a player POV.

Also a $241M Luxury Tax Payroll is roughly $220M in cash allocated to the active roster. So the statements aren't necessarily in conflict. The latter is how a lot of people still talk about payroll, because the former only matters to teams afraid of the tax line.

This would be a lot of fun. I'm curious how much of this change in attitude towards paying a reliever like this is about team conditions vs. how much they really like Scott. The bullpen would have a real chance to be dominant. Hodge and Pearson don't have the track record you'd like, but there wasn't much that seemed fake about what they did down the stretch last year. Sliding Scott ahead of them really gives you some margin for error.

I do not want to "masterful gambit sir" having Colin Rea as the 5th starter, but if the team thinks they are sufficiently better than the Brewers there's a lot of logic to pushing the inevitable Alcantara/Caissie for a SP trade to July. Especially now that we know Alcantara has an extra option. AZ Phil's opinions are dumb meatball radio caller stuff, but he is legitimately an expert at the administrative aspects of minor league rosters. I trust him implicitly there.

I've been really surprised at the lack of trade buzz around Alcantara this winter. He's nominally blocked by PCA, the most exciting pure talent at Iowa (moreso than Shaw even), and a true CF in a winter where the options on the market there are quite sad. I'm wondering if the industry is softening on him, or the total opposite where he's played himself into something approaching untouchable status in the team's eyes. The surprising late season callup plus the team not adding a true bench CFer this winter (it appears that will be covered by Canario and/or Brujan?) would seem to point to the latter.

If this ends up going down, I'd suspect Jed softened on his long term deals for relievers stance in this case for these reasons: - A professional courtesy to Craig Counsell. There was rumor that Jed was considering multi-year deals last winter in deference. It didn't end up happening then obviously - The rising costs in the SP market making the ROI on reliever deals not look quite so bad - The rest of the bullpen is VERY cheap. Caleb Thielbar at $2.75M is their top paid reliever and Nate Pearson at $1.35 is second - Unlike Flaherty or someone like that, you can fit Scott and a Tucker extension under the 2026 LT, barely I do still ultimately expect a one year deal to one of the old guys though.

A steady chatter has been building throughout this week around the Cubs' pursuit of a new closer. Most reports however have had them foregoing Tanner Scott, the top reliever on the free agent market, and instead targeting the next tier down with Kirby Yates' name often mentioned. Jon Morosi this evening lists the Cubs as a "top suitor" for Scott's services however. Additionally, Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic also notes the Cubs pursuit of Scott: However, it is worth noting, Sharma ultimately comes down on the side of Scott being beyond the Cubs' financial comfort zone. The Mets have generally been seen as Scott's top suitor, so with them signing AJ Minter this afternoon, perhaps there's an opening. Morosi also notes that Scott is likely close to a decision. The relief market is expected to move quickly after Scott signs, so either way the Cubs may have their new closer on hand soon. View full rumor

Jordan Wicks looks skinny. Hopefully that means that he can regularly throw north of 93 without his obliques turning to ash.

I have never been to Toronto but have heard nothing but incredible things about it as a city. But what about dumb horsefeathering move that would be from a pure baseball standpoint. The Blue Jays seem poised to rebound significantly from last year's debacle, however: - Their best players are primarily pending free agents (Vladito, Bichette) aging pitchers (Gausman, Berrios) or both (Chris Bassit) - Their farm system is butt, ranked 24th by MLB.com at midseason and 23rd by Fangraphs - They have shown no ability to get the best out of pitchers. Just last season they traded away Yusei Kikuchi and Nate Pearson and saw them make minor mechanical/repertoire changes and immediately begin to thrive after year's of mis-management north of the border

The Padres A) Just missed on a guy they've been courting for years B) Have 6 (!!!) spots open on their 40 man C) Haven't made a transaction of note since July There's a real chance we're about to see some absolutely insane Preller-ing over the next week or two.