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Bertz

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Everything posted by Bertz

  1. Bertz
    This morning, MLB Network's JP Morosi lists the Cubs along with the Red Sox as notable candidates for White Sox ace Garret Crochet While cross-town deal are always more difficult to get across the line, the Jose Quintana and Craig Kimbrel deals in recent years have shown big deals can still get done between the clubs. Setting aside messy politics, the two clubs are actually very strong fits for each other on paper. The Cubs want to add pitching talent, yet have self imposed payroll restrictions keeping them from shopping at the top of free agency. Crochet's $3M projected salary can fit any team's budget. From the White Sox perspective, they're hoping to avoid furthering the historic levels of futility they displayed last year. Selecting the Cubs as a trade partner allows them to acquire potential impact minor league talent that has a first half of 2025 ETA and can help the big league club in short order. View full rumor
  2. Bertz
    This morning, MLB Network's JP Morosi lists the Cubs along with the Red Sox as notable candidates for White Sox ace Garret Crochet While cross-town deal are always more difficult to get across the line, the Jose Quintana and Craig Kimbrel deals in recent years have shown big deals can still get done between the clubs. Setting aside messy politics, the two clubs are actually very strong fits for each other on paper. The Cubs want to add pitching talent, yet have self imposed payroll restrictions keeping them from shopping at the top of free agency. Crochet's $3M projected salary can fit any team's budget. From the White Sox perspective, they're hoping to avoid furthering the historic levels of futility they displayed last year. Selecting the Cubs as a trade partner allows them to acquire potential impact minor league talent that has a first half of 2025 ETA and can help the big league club in short order.
  3. Bertz
    Rosenthal's article this evening says the expectation is this gets done before the end of the winter meetings, with a decent chance at it happening before they start.
  4. Bertz
    I would guess the team adds a starting caliber bat. Someone who is a better hitter than Bellinger but not necessarily a better player. In my mind's eye this is Tyler O'Neill, but don't get too hung up on him specifically. But it looks something like this - Yankees take Bellinger and his contract for a nominal return - Cubs sign Tyler O'Neill for 2-3 years and $15-18M per. He is now the starting right fielder - In addition to backfilling Bellinger, you have A) saved $7-10M outright and (IMO) B) eliminated the need for a Patrick Wisdom backfill on the bench The Cubs now have $35-40M to spend under the cap, and the to-do list is: additional SP, late inning reliever, reserve IFer (ideally LHH), and backup catcher. That is a bit tight if you do all your shopping in FA, but pretty easy if you stack even one more trade on.
  5. Bertz
    I would guess one of the appeals of the Yankees as a trade partner is they can likely take Bellinger's salary with no strings attached. They're ~$80M under last year's payroll and have a fairly complete pitching staff. They could do something like Bellinger plus Bregman and then use the last ~$20M to clean up around the edges. Seems like most other teams would need to do a deal with some offsetting salary. With Soto's decision appearing close and most of the FA pool intact, I think just saving Bellinger's salary and wiping our hands clean would be my preferred path if it's presented.
  6. Bertz
    The note that they only have like $16M to play with even after some extensive cuts at the non-tender deadline is kinda nuts. You'd guess Luis Castillo is extremely available. Something to keep in mind if Jed's able to move Bellinger.
  7. Bertz
    Yeah I think by default it'd be Seiya, but with plenty of situations where Happ would be preferable instead.
  8. Bertz
    If BA's report that he's a good bench player now is true, there's an extremely high floor. A high contact bat that can cover 2B/3B/OF and steal ~50 bases is valuable. Even if he's an 80-something wRC+ guy that's a premium bench player.
  9. Bertz
    I hadn't seen this yet, great news. Makes sense with how much time he lost to injury last year I guess. Definitely changes the calculus on him sticking on the 40 man. I still don't think he's very high on the depth chart, but he's very unlikely to be cut now.
  10. Bertz
    None of us wanted him back but likely a good sign that part of the market is about to start moving
  11. Bertz
    Boyd was *very* good last year in limited time. And it came with some pitch design changes so it would seem likely to be at least mostly permanent. So the glass half full is this is the lesser of two SP adds, and this replaces Assad with someone a lot better on a per inning basis. That both A) improves the MLB team and B) frees up a young SP to trade. Also since Boyd's bugaboo is durability not talent, it should provide opportunities for Brown/Horton to get some starts. The glass half empty is that Jed made the singular SP add this winter a speculative upside play. He spent less on it than we expected, but not by a ton so it doesn't suddenly open up a significant number of new avenues to fill other holes.
  12. Bertz
    Royals have a pretty robust bullpen....
  13. Bertz
    They don't have to cut anyone until the deal is official but Kilian or Zastryzny would be the heavy favorites.
  14. Bertz
    You highlighted Wesneski's stellar September, he was doing that in stints of two innings a pop. I would love to see Wesneski keep that going as the team's long man. Not in the "4 innings of low leverage work every week and a half when a starter gets blown out" way but in the way David Ross used Keegan Thompson at his apex. 2-3 innings twice a week on a fairly regular cadence to keep sharp. And if Boyd is indeed one of two SP additions, I'd still rather see Wesneski in long relief than Assad. Javier could be trade bait if he's not used directly to acquire that additional SP.
  15. Bertz
    It's really not https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/11/2024-25-top-50-mlb-free-agents-with-predictions.html And I'm sorry but being okay with a deal at $12M per and wanting the GM fired at $14.5 is very silly. None of the data we work with is even close to being precise enough to get worked up over that amount.
  16. Bertz
    Like there's no situation where your opinion on a move should flip like this Over $2-3M AAV
  17. Bertz
    This is very silly, you see why this is silly, right?
  18. Bertz
    I'm trying to decide if the Boyd deal makes a Bellinger trade where you don't save a ton of money make more sense or less sense. For instance, it's not one of the three you highlighted, but MLBTR suggested Bellinger for Pressly. In that scenario you have the bullpen more or less sorted and you've saved $12M. Is needing to address the position player side and an additional SP with ~$45M to play with a better position than we're in right now? I think so, at least marginally?
  19. Bertz
    That's exactly what it is. And then mutual options/buyouts work the same in the opposite direction to let teams get the benefit of a little TVM before paying out.
  20. Bertz
    At the deadline Jed traded for Isaac Paredes and reportedly offered multiple top 100 prospects to try and add Logan O'Hoppe as well. I think we can be clear eyed that Jed won't be as aggressive as we like while also not pretending like he's going to have his foot so far off the pedal that this was the big move of the winter.
  21. Bertz
    The team is ~$40M under the cap right now. Let's assume for the sake of being conservative the plan is to only spend $30M more this offseason to leave deadline money and wiggle room for injuries/bonuses. If you're paying retail in FA, the remaining items on the to do list cost: Backup Catcher - $6-8M Backup IF - $4-5M RHH Bat - $5M Closer - $10-12M So that's that $30M right there without even considering a second SP. So one of the following must be true: - The team is planning to address one or more items in trade to provide $ relief - The team is planning to skimp on or maybe even forego one or two of these items - There is more money available than we think, whether because a Bellinger trade is coming down the pipe or simply because payroll is actually north of the LT Gun to my head, they add a SP in arb making something in the $5-10M range, and then skimp on one of those lower cost items. For example add Jesus Luzardo at $6M and go internally with Canario as your lefty masher.
  22. Bertz
    So by no means is he Tom Glavine, but I do think we're probably overstating his fragility. Through 2020 he was reasonably healthy. Then in 2021 he had a flexor tendon surgery which bled into his 22 as well. Then in 23 he had TJ surgery which bled into his 24. So yeah, 4 years in a row of low innings, but all tied to that balky elbow which is presumably fixed now.
  23. Bertz
    Definitely. I think packaging one of the young Iowa bats and one of the pre-arb arms can get you most of the way to anyone realistically available in trade. If you did something like Alcantara and Assad for Jesus Luzardo you've got some real risk in the rotation but hella talent and 4-5 legitimate SP options just a phone call away at Iowa.
  24. Bertz
    Piqued*
  25. Bertz
    Yeah I think Boyd would be very ripe for a piggyback with like Brown or Wesneski. I'd be really down for a situation like this if we had a strong top 3. Someone else in the Steel/Shota tier and then thunder dome in the 4/5 spots. If Taillon’s still our #3 that idea doesn't have as much luster.
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