Bertz
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Everything posted by Bertz
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I'll be honest, this latest Rosenthal article has tipped my brain into this being more likely than not. I'm telling it no but this feels like it has the juice.
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Using Paredes is nice because it presumably knocks the prospect freight WAY down, making a subsequent trade for a SP still pretty doable. The 3B market is horsefeathers though, so we're basically locking into Shaw with a high end backup like a Rojas or Moncada IMO.
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You can 100% start and extension the following year, Ian Happ's was set up like that.
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Their non-Tucker corner outfield is pretty rough too. I'd think adding Caissie and having him revisit learning 1B would make a lot of sense. Separately, if a deal requires a 3rd guy Jonny Long would fit them well. Shaw doesn't feel like a great fit, despite being our best prospect.
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Via ESPN
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I'm curious how much of this trade discussion is either/or and how much is in parallel. At this point it seems pretty clear that the team wants to make a big trade. It might be more Luis Castillo than Garret Crochet, but I'm at this point totally expecting a trade for someone fun. There's too much smoke from too many corners for it to feel artificial or limited to a handful of scenarios. All of the names we've heard besides Tucker have been starting pitchers. What I'm really wondering is if the plan is A) One big trade, and that'll probably be a pitcher for logistical reasons but if the right hitter opportunity presents itself then cool B) One big trade on each side of the ball C) There’s a certain amount of prospect capital they're comfortable selling, or conversely a certain number of wins they're intent on buying, and TBD what that looks like The reason I wonder is because if we're in scenario A, yeah there probably needs to be some real urgency to get a deal over the finish line. If it's B or C, free agency is clearly just being used for supplemental additions, and there is no urgency. With Kelly locked down, you can easily wait until MLK day to go shopping for relief and bench help. It's not an issue at all.
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Potential Landing Spots For A Cody Bellinger Trade
Bertz replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
I had in my head that they had a more settled LF situation. I guess my subconscious went ahead and gave them Soto since I expected him to end up there? Yeah if their OF is currently Dominguez-Grisham-Judge I think Bellinger still fits. Grisham is ideally a high end 4th OFer. -
Potential Landing Spots For A Cody Bellinger Trade
Bertz replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
This got brought up in the Winter Meetings thread but the Yankees signing Christian Walker feels like it probably takes the Yankees out on Bellinger. -
Saw someone, Brett I think, mention the Cubs' roster is at 39 and so Kelly likely doesn't get finalized until the weekend post Rule 5
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I think this would most likely, but not definitely, take them out on Bellinger. Dominguez in CF is a bit risky, but they also have Grisham in case things go south. Wouldn't be surprised if they re-upped with Gleyber instead.
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Vibes wise the article here really makes this feel like it has a chance to happen. Even if it's not Tucker I'm starting to let myself think the team might consider something big
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If they bring Bregman back they're pretty covered at 2B/3B/SS. I think they'd be more focused on 1B and the OF.
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Wow ZiPS HATES the Fried contract. I assumed something Nola-adjacent was warranted but the computer says no
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They also suddenly look like a great Nico Hoerner fit
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They do want Dominguez to be their CF. But Bellinger would be great for them as Dominguez insurance and a starting caliber 1B. I also won't write it off considering what they clearly had earmarked for Soto, but do they really want to give Bregman $200M right after paying Fried?
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Not sure Fried going to NYY does anything for us. Yankees trajectory seems/seemed to be two of Bellinger/Bregman/Fried, so we don't know if this impacts Bellinger unless we get some definition around Bregman.
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Via Sahadev. I don't believe this was included in any of the recaps from Hoyer's media session last night, but today suddenly feels pretty important. So Suzuki doesn't want to be a full time DH, and Hoyer doesn't want to have a full time DH. Feels like that means either: - There is not going to be an everyday addition to the lineup - Two current hitters are on the way out. For example Bellinger + Suzuki with Tucker coming in. Or what feels more realistic something like I mentioned last night of Bellinger + Hoerner out and Brandon Lowe in
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Yeah I mentioned in a comment on your Tucker column this AM but the Athletic mentioning yesterday that Suzuki could be moved if Bellinger wasn't was a real "wait what?!" moment for me. Brushing off Joel Sherman as not knowing anything about anything west of Jersey is easy, but Sharma saying something has more weight. I wouldn't take this as a good thing per se, but I do think it's less bad, probably much less, than most of the alternative explanations for what Sharma reported. Speaking of those alternative explanations, does this soften what we think the restrictions are on payroll? The genesis of the "they're cutting payroll!" panic was the deluge of Bellinger rumors. Payroll being cut was mostly shot down, but we collectively settled on "but they absolutely will not cross the LT." With the Bellinger stuff having a very non-financial explanation, I wonder if there's another $5-10M more in the couch cushions than we expected. Like this year they go into the season at the LT line and if they end up over so be it.
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From the sounds of it there's not enough acrimony for it to be a "choose him or me!" deal, but in a gentlemanly sense it is more or less a " choose him or me" deal. Bellinger's always probably been the guy to go, but if you're Jed you're not doing tour job if you don't see what Suzuki could net. And if him and Wolfe have a healthy relationship, there's no harm in passing along e.g. "The Tigers and Astros horsefeathering LOVE you if you want to wave your NTC and have me go down that route." Right now, the winter meetings, with a Bellinger trade seeming fairly imminent, is the exact right time to have that convo.
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Yeah I think both have to go, which certainly colors how likely a Tucker trade feels for me. That said I think Houston taking one back isn't unreasonable, especially if we saved them money elsewhere (e.g. Ryan Pressly), so I don't think it requires some Preller-esque spree of moves to make everything work together.
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If Jed moves Bellinger to get Suzuki back in RF I don't think this is a negative, if anything it's the opposite. This does have to color how we daydream future lineups though. For example no way in hell Owen Caissie or Kevin Alcantara are pushing Seiya to DH, no matter what the math says.
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Yeah this is my interpretation too. This conversation was likely had during end of season exit interviews. When Bellinger opted in that made it clear someone needed to go in trade. The conversations happening right now are most likely about specific scenarios and destinations.
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The Astros have explicitly talked about how much of a priority it is to re-sign Bregman. That may be platitudes, and there will certainly be limits to where/how they're willing to make it work, but "we want Bregman back" and "Tucker is theoretically available" are both matter of public record.
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Ah, so that's why Suzuki's name came up in rumors. Honestly, fair. And it is a limitation, but a minor enough one that I think the clarity it provides is ultimately a good thing. We know Bellinger doesn't have to be backfilled by a RF, he can be backfilled by a 1B/DH. That provides a straightforward path to improving the offense and saving money that doesn't require a lot of roster gymnastics. Bellinger out, JDM in, $15M thrown at the pitching staff. Easy peasy.
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Alright let's try and game this out - Cubs send Cody Bellinger to the Yankees for Trent Grisham - Astros send Tucker and Pressly to the Cubs for Grisham, their choice of Caissie/Alcantara, and any two of Wicks/Assad/Wesneski/Birdsell. They take the ~$25M savings and immediately use it to re-sign Bregman - Cubs send Nico Hoerner to the Mariners for Luis Castillo, Gregory Santos, and whatever prospect freight is required to balance out the deal. I'd actually prefer higher talent further from the majors a la the Darvish trade - Cubs spend their last $10-15M on the bench, which has to include Carson Kelly. Let's call it Kelly, Josh Rojas and Manny Margot Lineup: Happ/Swanson/Suzuki Tucker/Paredes/Busch Amaya/Shaw/PCA Bench: Kelly, Rojas, Margot, TBD who wins a spot in ST Rotation: Steele, Castillo, Shota, Taillon, Boyd Bullpen: Pressly/Hodge/Santos Pearson/Merryweather/Miller/Morgan Whoever of Wicks/Assad/Wesneski is left That bench sucks until multiple kids force their way up, but otherwise this team can ball. That pitching staff especially has a chance to be smothering.
