Bertz
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Everything posted by Bertz
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Potential Landing Spots For A Cody Bellinger Trade
Bertz replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Superficially pretty similar to Wesneski. High end sinker/slider combo but simply gives up too many dongs. The changeup IMO looks pretty nasty on video, so I'd think there's a better path to being a legit SP than Wes has at this point. But the fact that he got lit up so thoroughly at AAA probably means there's a higher chance he just can't hack it in MLB at all. -
I wonder if the Nats would make MacKenzie Gore available. I feel like at the start of the offseason there was some talk about them pulling a Jayson Werth 2.0 type of move, but it's been all crickets and the current Fangraphs projections do not think the team is at all close to competing. Currently projected as the 3rd worst team in the league. You'd get three more years of Gore and this is his first year of arb at a projected $3.5M, so even if you sent them a little more prospect capital than you're comfortable with that's not exactly a sell out for '25 move.
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I mean Soto's been worth nearly 4 WAR more the last three years, plus the age difference. I think if Tucker showed a continuation of what he did in limited time last year and puts up like 8 WAR, yeah he can probably approach $50/year in FA next winter. But I think if he settles in at his averages there's a decent chance he doesn't crack $400M. The Corey Seager deal plus inflation feels right IMO.
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Through May 11th his fastball was 96.5, right in line with the two years prior. Things dipped from there and about a month later his season ended. I feel pretty confident blaming his poor performance last year on injury. He obviously doesn't have to bounce back, but a year ago at this time he was considered a bonafide star. We are the exact type of team that should be buying low and making these sorts of gambles. There's a good chance he's still a star. And if he's still damaged goods? Oh well I guess the path to innings for Ben Brown and Cade Horton got less complicated.
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Big fan of adding Luzardo. This is the sort of risk you can take when you've got the pitching depth the Cubs do.
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Taking Castillo as an example, having him at $25M and Tucker at let's call it $40M, the team next year is already at ~$230M. Tom would have to significantly change his spending habits or Jed would be backed into a corner *having* to trade a salary to do anything beyond minor roster tinkering. Not impossible, Theo did it for Darvish, but I feel pretty comfortable saying this is one of those places where Jed and Theo have different sensibilities. Edit: Actually I think that $230 might be if Shota leaves, so more like $245M as a starting point.
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If you wanna give him 5-10 games over there cool, but he should not be an extensive part of the 3B plan
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Deal official, and surprisingly team friendly
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I posted something tangential to this in a comment under one of Trueblood's articles but now that this is real I think it's worth thinking about more. If you want to read tea leaves on how confident the team is about extending Tucker, I think there's is a direct correlation between how much multi-year money the team adds from here and how likely it is that Tucker walks. Tucker and some unlikely Shota option decisions aside, there is no money set to come off the books after this year besides Tucker. So if the team has real expectations of extending Tucker, they'll primarily stick to 1 year deals aside from Kelly (you always need a veteran backup at C). Reason being you want to to have some money to spend in addition to a Tucker deal. So like if Castillo or Flaherty is our next SP that's a bearish sign for an extension, while a guy in his walk year I take as a positive.
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BTW can we all agree in advance to be chill when Paredes goes nuts in Houston, and to a lesser extent when Bellinger goes nuts in NYC?
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My ideal rest of winter I think would look like this (suspect ~$20M left to sepnd at the moment) - Bellinger +$5M for Warren (-$22M) - Assad + Caissie to the Padres for Michael King ($8M) - Finalize Kelly ($8M) and add Josh Rojas ($5M) and Randall Grichuk ($6M) - Sign Kirby Yates ($10M) plus another TBD reliever Hottovy thinks would be a fun project ($5M)
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The team *NEEDS* a good backup 3B if we're running Shaw out there. That said there are a couple available on the market and even with how tight funds are they can allocate $6-8M to buying some floor at the position.
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BTW after pushing for this Paredes/Tucker deal starting in like August do want to try and speak the next major trade into existence?
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Over the last two years, among guys with at least 1000 PAs, Tucker ranks 7th in wRC+ and Seiya ranks 19th. Dodgers, Braves, and Astros only other teams with more than 1 in the top 20. (Francisco Lindor is #21 and paired with Soto would add the Mets so I'm cheating a bit with the arbitrary endpoint)
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Hard to get too deep into specifics before we see the $$$ on the ensuing Bellinger deal, but with Iowa still being fully stocked trading for a fun SP should still be on the table.
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They were by the slimmest of margins before this, now between this and the Williams trade the margin is not especially slim. The Bellinger trade will temporarily cut it back down some.
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Wonder how immediate the Yankee trade is. We talking like the next hour or like tomorrow?
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If we presume that Bellinger for Warren follows, then this deal essentially got done without touching anything at Iowa.
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Also once this gets Passan'd this discussion should probably become a new thread
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Yeah this is fair. Assad also might have more value on account of being a no-doubt SP, and thus better to hang onto for the (hopefully) coming SP trade.
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Not the priority but if Assad can be the pitcher that'd be swell? I like Wesneski more in a swing role than Assad.
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From someone more reliable than Morosi this type of language would more or less mean it's done.
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Hmmm I thought Bohm was due closer to $15M. Still though We're talking ~$12M available once Kelly becomes official to add a SP, a RP, and a reserve IFer. The latter I guess you can punt to a kid (Workman presumably) but that's still tough.
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Right now, and it only gets worse with Paredes sent out, this team is really light on RHH power. Player-wise Bohm + Castellanos makes a lot of sense but financially I don't really see any way to make it work without just going "welp, this here is the pitching staff I guess."
