Bertz
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Everything posted by Bertz
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Damn you beat me to the punch!
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Nope
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I would think so. They had 7 viable SP and hour ago, which is what made dangling Gil so plausible. Trading another, and reportedly one of your best AAA depth guys in the Bellinger deal would feel dicey.
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We are not doing this horsefeathering dance again
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Assuming team is at $30M right now - Kelly makes 8ish - Paredes makes 7ish - Bellinger makes 27, but we send let's call it 5 so we save 22 net - Tucker makes 16 So by the end of the weekend we're at ~$35M to spend. From there spend $15M on another starter, $10M on a late inning reliever, and $10M across two bench guys. Viola
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I think there's likely to be ~$10M available to safely throw at the bench, assuming Ryan Pressly is not part of the Tucker deal.
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The risk/reward balance is probably not right but Moncada fits in this bucket as well. I like Rojas, but if we're not trading for a SP of substance pay a bit of a prospect premium to the Twins for Castro. That also helps backfill the CF insurance we lose with a Bellinger deal.
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Probably
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Philips is Steve Philips right? So this is very much a "two ******s talking to each other and saying exactlyyyyy" deal
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I don't want this to come off as too mean but this happens a lot. And I think the reason is you dig in and refuse to update your priors despite new evidence. You believe Thing A and then have to tie yourself into knots supporting it rather than accepting that it's either no longer true or potentially never was.
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Yeah it's probably just this, but their starting outfield is about to be: Chas Mccormick - Jake Meyers - Taylor Trammell And they're talking to a team with major league or major league adjacent outfielders coming out the ears. It's weird. It's this meme
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Levine has not had the best track record recently and acquiring multiple 3B is still just weird. I'm hoping he's right on vibes/momentum but the specifics still feel off.
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I think my appetite for adding Pressly depends on A) How much money the team needs to add to Bellinger in the presumed Yankee deal and B) What SP trades Jed has been able to get some traction on. If the team has say $30M available right now before Kelly becomes official, and sends like $5M with Bellinger to cover his buyout, then we'd be looking at something like $38M coming in for Pressly, Tucker, and Kelly but $28M going out for Bellinger and Paredes. So ~$20M to do another SP, address that sad bench, and maybe add another reliever? That is tight but feels doable if you're addressing SP in trade. Something like Michael King ($8M), Josh Rojas ($4M), Holy Milner ($2M), and Carlos Santana ($6M)? If the SP trade market isn't looking workable, I lose interest in picking up Pressly. There are interesting SP you can get in that $5-6M range (Patrick Sandoval?) but interesting doesn't feel worth slotting ahead of the kids.
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There's also sometimes banal reasons why these things drag on, like Swanson was on his honeymoon. Doesn't stop the Heyman's of the world from doing the horserace schtick.
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Yeah I don't think this gets notably lengthy unless/until we hit Monday That said I think most of the prolonged will it/won't it sagas during the Theo/Hoyer era have eventually reached the finish line? Darvish, Swanson, Bellinger. I think trading KB to the Braves post grievance is the big one that never materialized.
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Yeah in my Twitter app the last emoji was much more clearly the statue of liberty than it appears when I post it here.
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Several of the BN guys follow him, but I don't know anything about him.
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🤷♂️
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Especially looking at how sad their Tucker-less outfield is Paredes + Smith would feel like a real wasted opportunity for them. One outfielder, one 3B, and one SP feels like it has to be what's going their way. And there's a ton of permutations to haggle through.
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Marquee talking about this potential deal feels telling.
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The Cubs' starting pitching depth right now, in rough order of how likely I think they'd get an April start Steele/Shota/Taillon/Boyd Assad/Brown/Wicks/Wesneski Horton/Birdsell Kilian/Noland Will Warren would likely slot in right behind Wesneski? No such thing as too much pitching, but after adding Warren this feels like a group you could deal two from, especially if another veteran SP were on the way. I dunno, feels like pretty strong tea leaves that they're still gonna address SP via trade after (presumably) adding Tucker.
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Scouting the Fangraphs page but Warren feels very Wesneski-y. Whether he gets flipped directly or he backfills Wesneski or Assad TBD I guess.
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One other thing feels obvious but I'm not seeing connected as dots is if by some chance Heyman is right you simply don't deal Bellinger. There is no reason to if Suzuki is gone. Bellinger's flexibility makes him an ideal 9th man, and by sending out Paredes and Suzuki you've jettisoned nearly the same $25M salary.
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Busch is certainly a better defender but sometimes money overrides logic in these situations. The problem with Alonso is that he's a good hitter but not an elite one. The raw HR numbers and that outrageous rookie year give him a reputation no longer backed by the facts on the ground. He's very much an Ian Happ or Michael Busch caliber hitter at this point, and I'm not going to poo poo that but I'm also not going to pay 9 figures for it particularly given what's already on the roster.
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Hardest of passes on Alonso. The team needs a RHH 1B, but there's no reason to give Alonso $25M a year.
