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Bertz

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Everything posted by Bertz

  1. Bertz
    Royals have a pretty robust bullpen....
  2. Bertz
    They don't have to cut anyone until the deal is official but Kilian or Zastryzny would be the heavy favorites.
  3. Bertz
    You highlighted Wesneski's stellar September, he was doing that in stints of two innings a pop. I would love to see Wesneski keep that going as the team's long man. Not in the "4 innings of low leverage work every week and a half when a starter gets blown out" way but in the way David Ross used Keegan Thompson at his apex. 2-3 innings twice a week on a fairly regular cadence to keep sharp. And if Boyd is indeed one of two SP additions, I'd still rather see Wesneski in long relief than Assad. Javier could be trade bait if he's not used directly to acquire that additional SP.
  4. Bertz
    It's really not https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/11/2024-25-top-50-mlb-free-agents-with-predictions.html And I'm sorry but being okay with a deal at $12M per and wanting the GM fired at $14.5 is very silly. None of the data we work with is even close to being precise enough to get worked up over that amount.
  5. Bertz
    Like there's no situation where your opinion on a move should flip like this Over $2-3M AAV
  6. Bertz
    This is very silly, you see why this is silly, right?
  7. Bertz
    I'm trying to decide if the Boyd deal makes a Bellinger trade where you don't save a ton of money make more sense or less sense. For instance, it's not one of the three you highlighted, but MLBTR suggested Bellinger for Pressly. In that scenario you have the bullpen more or less sorted and you've saved $12M. Is needing to address the position player side and an additional SP with ~$45M to play with a better position than we're in right now? I think so, at least marginally?
  8. Bertz
    That's exactly what it is. And then mutual options/buyouts work the same in the opposite direction to let teams get the benefit of a little TVM before paying out.
  9. Bertz
    At the deadline Jed traded for Isaac Paredes and reportedly offered multiple top 100 prospects to try and add Logan O'Hoppe as well. I think we can be clear eyed that Jed won't be as aggressive as we like while also not pretending like he's going to have his foot so far off the pedal that this was the big move of the winter.
  10. Bertz
    The team is ~$40M under the cap right now. Let's assume for the sake of being conservative the plan is to only spend $30M more this offseason to leave deadline money and wiggle room for injuries/bonuses. If you're paying retail in FA, the remaining items on the to do list cost: Backup Catcher - $6-8M Backup IF - $4-5M RHH Bat - $5M Closer - $10-12M So that's that $30M right there without even considering a second SP. So one of the following must be true: - The team is planning to address one or more items in trade to provide $ relief - The team is planning to skimp on or maybe even forego one or two of these items - There is more money available than we think, whether because a Bellinger trade is coming down the pipe or simply because payroll is actually north of the LT Gun to my head, they add a SP in arb making something in the $5-10M range, and then skimp on one of those lower cost items. For example add Jesus Luzardo at $6M and go internally with Canario as your lefty masher.
  11. Bertz
    So by no means is he Tom Glavine, but I do think we're probably overstating his fragility. Through 2020 he was reasonably healthy. Then in 2021 he had a flexor tendon surgery which bled into his 22 as well. Then in 23 he had TJ surgery which bled into his 24. So yeah, 4 years in a row of low innings, but all tied to that balky elbow which is presumably fixed now.
  12. Bertz
    Definitely. I think packaging one of the young Iowa bats and one of the pre-arb arms can get you most of the way to anyone realistically available in trade. If you did something like Alcantara and Assad for Jesus Luzardo you've got some real risk in the rotation but hella talent and 4-5 legitimate SP options just a phone call away at Iowa.
  13. Bertz
    Piqued*
  14. Bertz
    Yeah I think Boyd would be very ripe for a piggyback with like Brown or Wesneski. I'd be really down for a situation like this if we had a strong top 3. Someone else in the Steel/Shota tier and then thunder dome in the 4/5 spots. If Taillon’s still our #3 that idea doesn't have as much luster.
  15. Bertz
    I would also guess that there's a good chance a condition of netting Sasaki is running a 6 man rotation (or something creative that treats him like he's in one). Even if you KNOW you're getting Sasaki you want 5 other SPs to pair with him.
  16. Bertz
    You have to be logged in to see the quoted tweet but basically a short thread from a Mets fan about Frankie Montas and how teams are more and more looking at pitchers as their arsenals instead of as their past performance. Feels just as relevant to Boyd as Montas
  17. Bertz
    I'll say going with a guy who is good on a rate basis but you're worried about volume makes the second SP feel pretty inevitable. I'd be tugging my collar a lot more if I'd woken up to like a Kyle Gibson or Lance Lynn signing.
  18. Bertz
    Glad your article about platoon splits at Wrigley is linked here because it popped into my head as I was reading about him and I wanted to revisit it. Like you have up top, if this is the lesser of two SPs being added this winter this is a fun little signing. I expect pretty strong results on a per inning basis, but not a lot of innings. I think with the cadre of young arms the Cubs have, that's the perfect tradeoff to have from a back-end arm. Another nice thing about Boyd is unlike Drew Smyly he actually has proper platoon splits, so if he does back up performance wise and shifts into that vacated long relief role it feels a lot easier to leverage him.
  19. Bertz
    I'd presume we're trading for a SP now, and Boyd is going to slot in as the #2 guy from this winter. If not, woof obviously, but if so this is pretty fun. He got very successfully pitch labbed last year by Cleveland. Still in SSS which is why he didn't get paid more but he might be quite good. I'd imagine he functions as a sort of deluxe Smyly. I'm sure as part of signing he got assurances on a rotation spot, but I doubt he has an iron grip on it. Also with his durability questions ultimately ending up in the bullpen is very possible.
  20. Bertz
    Reading this has me wondering about Cody Bellinger for a bad contract AND another good player. For instance Cody Bellinger for Nick Castellanos, Jose Alvarado, and money to cover Castellanos' 2026 salary? Or Cody Bellinger for Jordan Montgomery and one of AZ's late inning arms (Ryan Thompson)? You're not freeing up money, but you're knocking a couple other items off the to-do list while keeping salary flat.
  21. Bertz
    Hopefully he has one of those Erick Fedde type journeys and comes back in two years the mid rotation starter we always hoped for.
  22. Bertz
    Michael Busch's 2023-2024 trajectory should be your median expectation for any big time hitting prospect at this point. - Really rough first month as you arrive in MLB - Really good month as you figure out how pitchers are attacking you and adjust - Another deep slump as pitchers adjust back - Figure out pitchers' round 2 gameplan, reach equilibrium and be roughly who you are with normal ebbs and flows going forward I think Matt Shaw is going to be significantly better offensively than Nico Hoerner in time. Something like a 120 wRC+. However in the early going he's going to have some real struggles as he adjusts to MLB. He's also not nearly the baserunner or defender Nico is. If you've got a plan where you deal Nico away and net a major upgrade elsewhere, fine let's run Shaw out there as the everyday 2B. But there is very little chance he's just straight up better than Hoerner in 2025.
  23. Bertz
    Offensively? It's probably close. Holistically? It's probably not.
  24. Bertz
    Doing things just for the sake of doing things or "switching things up" is a tried and true way to make a bad decision.
  25. Bertz
    I think building a bullpen of doom like you do here with Holmes and Hoffman is a fun end-around to some of the tough positions this offseason poses. Especially since our rotation is pretty innings-eater-y already, and Miller furthers that. Joc's interesting. On one hand I want that role to be a righty, on the other hand he's turned into a hell of a bat and should be grabbable on a 1 year deal like this. I don't love Lorenzen personally. I think if you're looking at SPs in that price range I'd look at guys who got successfully pitch labbed this past season but due to track record and durability still aren't going to make a ton of money. e.g. Matt Boyd, Spencer Turnbull, or Jakob Junis. With the young pitching we have, I'd prioritize 80-100 innings I feel really good about over 130-150 I don't.
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