Bertz
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Everything posted by Bertz
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I'm not sure there's any point this winter where a trade for Kirby or Gilbert felt less likely than it does right now.
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Now that we know we don't need to skimp on the bullpen, I want two relievers for sure. One of the really good old guys, and then someone with higher octane stuff. One needs to be a lefty, or at least a righty who statistically performs like a lefty like Kirby Yates.
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Given how much money the Bellinger trade freed up I'd be shocked if two bench bats aren't brought in. Then Kelly obviously has a spot and I would guess one bench spot is left available to be won for the various kids and NRIs. Canario/Workman/Mastro/etc.
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International Free Agency Thread, 1/15/2024 Class
Bertz replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
This has zero bearing in Sasaki. You operate in case you're not getting him until you do. The only team that can/could act at all presumptive about it is the Dodgers. If you get Sasaki you have to kill your 2025 IFA class and realistically blow up damn near every relationship you have down in LatAm. It's not like this handshake agreement is any more unbreakable or any less horsefeathers to break than the others. -
I think Kim gets more than that and ensured starter level playing time, but yeah roughly this. If Luzardo is your last SP there's a TON of latitude on the bench/bullpen stuff.
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So if our former assumptions hold, there's now $40M to address SP, the bench, and the bullpen. If Luzardo is the SP, that's enough money to do pretty close to whatever you want for the reserves.
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I don't know what a Cody Poteet is so if Jed kicked in more than like $5M along with Belli then he got worked pretty bad.
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I think knowing Suzuki's qualms with being a full time DH even if the team wanted to run Cohen-esque payroll you'd ideally make a move. I think also this is realistically the easiest remaining way to squeeze some more raw power onto the team.
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Not sure if this is coming from his connections or him reacting to the other smoke.
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If Bellinger's indeed done, paired with the urgency around the Luzardo rumors and there is a pretty decent chance we have a fairly complete roster heading into the holidays. Just bench and bullpen work left over for January.
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Aside from this I think the most interesting thing from the presser is that the Astros called after the Paredes trade before the trade deadline and tried to get Jed to flip him then. Otherwise Jed's answers all seemed to affirm the state of things that the beat writers are generally putting out there.
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Jed just shut down Michael Busch to 3B talk. He leaves himself outs in most answers but that was pretty definitive.
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Yeah I think Lindor, Judge, and Seager are all good comps. There's unfortunately not a perfect one. But I think mid to upper 300's is probably what it takes as an extension. If he makes it to FA, I think you're looking at low 400's. I don't think he tops Trout or Ohtani unless he has some silly like 8-9 WAR walk year.
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I kind of wonder if the urgency on this trade ties back to Bellinger. If you address SP, and do it this cheaply, it becomes pretty easy to back into how much money you need to round out the roster. Like let's say it's this SP - $6M RP1 - $10M RP2 - $5M Backup IFer - $4M Backup 1B - $8M So if we've got $15M available, and the above costs $33M, you need to net $18M in a Bellinger trade. You should of course haggle for more, but you can have some confidence in your floor number in negotiations with Cashman.
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Usually during the playoffs. Once the regular season wraps the guy can run his model. A quick and dirty rule of thumb is last year's arbitration salary times 1.5. It doesn't work in edge cases where a guy breaks out or gets seriously hurt, but it's usually not that far off. If it's like July and I am looking ahead to the next offseason that's what I tend to roll with.
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Yeah MLBTR's numbers are super accurate, to the point I've heard teams/agents now use it as a starting point in negotiations at times.
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I'm hoping we can add two relievers. And if the team trades Bellinger, even if they eat more money than we'd like in the process, that feels pretty doable. If you ended up with say Yates and Minter, this is probably the bullpen to open the year: CL - Yates SU - Hodge, Minter, Pearson MR - Miller, Morgan, Merryweather LR - Assad/Wicks That's a group you can feel good about, with quality reinforcements at Iowa as well.
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- kyle finnegan
- aj minter
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Not even close. Ian Happ had 0.7 WAR on June 1st. Chris Morel had -0.2 WAR the day he was traded. Catcher and 3B were, by orders of magnitude, the biggest problems for the Cubs this year on the position player side. Catcher got better in the second half but in the 1st half was basically the worst position for any team in MLB.
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The Athletic confirmed the pursuit of Luzardo this evening.
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The Cubs' lineup has 5 guys who had 3.5 or more WAR last year. plus PCA who paced north of that mark on a per 600 PAs basis. I think it's pretty appropriate to approach 3B from a standpoint of raising the floor rather than chasing ceiling.
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I would do Josh Rojas most likely. I view RHH who can help out at 1B/OF/DH as a separate to-do list item.
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Sure, but the team's lack of production at 3B is part of the big three reasons why they missed the playoffs last year (joining catcher and bullpen). I think setting aside ~$5M for a high end backup at the position is one of the more important investments the team can make from here.
