Bertz

Eovaldi at that price is a no brainer, as is O'neill. Kikuchi at that price is criminal, I feel like the over/under is at least double that (in dollars not years).

It feels like there's not anyone on the position player side that feels right value-wise. Caissie feels like too much when paired with young pitching of substance, but like Johnny Long or whomever the next tier down feels like too little. Especially for Cease who has some track record and nearly touched 5 WAR this year. The solution is probably expanding it to like a 4 for 2 with SD sending someone back. Eguy Rosario or someone in that vein?

I did not even have on my radar that this needed to happen but you look at their roster and payroll commitments and you are right it seems pretty clear. I think you're right that King feels more like a Jed/Hottovy guy. Dylan Cease would be more fun and as someone who feels less Cub-like would compliment the roster better. I think you'd clearly send young pitching their way. The position player side is a bit harder. They need immediate help at LF, C, and 1B. Preller also has a long standing shortstop fetish. The problem is the Cubs have some depth at those areas at Iowa but no one you could confidently give a job to on April 1. Would Preller be okay with something like Assad, Caissie, and Canario? Canario could step in LF, probably as the short half of a platoon, immediately, while Caissie would be a little later in the season and be an everyday day option. Assad like you said is lower ceiling but is cheap and controlled and can step right in. For the Cubs you'd emphatically check higher end SP off the offseason to-do list for, at worst, about $15M. If Assad's going out the door you're probably more likely to want a 2 SP offseason, but it's not mandatory and you still have a ton of resources to play with. I'd probably put a full court press on Shane Bieber in this scenario?

So hitters absolutely work that cleanly. Guys improve in their early 20's, peak somewhere in the 25-27 range, plateau with maybe some gradual decline until a little after 30, and then decline harder from there. Pitchers do not work that cleanly. Guys improve dramatically as they add pitches or velo or alter mechanics to improve command or deception. They break constantly. It's very much a step curve. There is *some* added risk as you get older, but mainly the reason we don't see a ton of productive older pitchers is because for any pitcher there's like a 10-20% chance of the attrition monster randomly destroying your arm in a given year, and that's a lot of dice rolls you have to successfully navigate. But if you've had enough fortune to make it to 35, you're not that much more risky in your 36 season than the guy 5-10 years your junior.

I'm 1000% taking the 3 year deal to the older pitcher in this scenario. What age are you thinking pitcher risk shoots way up, because 31 is definitely already post prime.

Especially if Bellinger is gone and the team's got ~$80M to spend expect the team to be tied to everyone. It won't be true but agents will want it to be and it'll be plausible and Morosi/Heyman/Nightingale don't really gaf

There's been a lot going around about the Bears' tough schedule going forward. But it looks like we are getting the Commanders without Daniels, the 49ers after their skill player group has gone through 'Homer at Bat' levels of attrition, and the Vikings after Sam Darnold's pixie dust wore off. It'll still be tough of course but is looking less gauntlet-y than it did a week or two ago.

It wasn't a rotation per se, but it does feel like Craig ended up doing something like this late in the year when Pearson had built up sufficient trust. Rather than a rotation, it felt almost like Craig had an A team, a B team, and a C team. A team led by Hodge, and used for tight high leverage games. B team led by Pearson for less tight games (up 3-4 runs), or when Hodge had already worked two days in a row, and then a C led by Thompson/Smyly for when the team was behind. You could probably fiddle with the rules for who gets what days, but this feels like a happy medium between what you're proposing and the current nature of pens. Something like this: A Team: TBD Free Agent closer, Nate Pearson, and Luke Little B Team: Porter Hodge, Julian Merryweather, Tyson Miller C Team: Keegan Thompson and Hayden Wesneski It'd be more dynamic than a strict rotation, but it should still help with the overall goal of increasing rest and having fewer back to backs.

This didn't last long

God help me I'm on the same side of an issue as Cuzi but yeah to whatever extent older pitchers are riskier I think it's more than made up for by the way the market has recoiled in fear at them. I'd MUCH rather sign a 34 year old to a 3 year deal than sign a 24 year old with identical stats and repertoire to a 5 or 6 year deal. It's not even close in my mind.

Some assorted player groups in FA that I like: Lefty Mashers (Bellinger Replacements): If Bellinger leaves we need a full time player to replace him. Ideally he'd be a RF or DH to serve as a 1 for 1 replacement, and ideally he'd be more offensively minded (specifically against lefties). Over the last three years, Tyler O'Neill has been the 8th best hitter in the league against lefties, more or less tied with Mookie Betts and Paul Goldschmidt. He's also a roughly average corner outfielder (his numbers this year a bit rough because LF in Fenway takes some getting used to) so you could leave Seiya Suzuki as a nearly full time DH. Teoscar Hernandez is similar, 19th best against lefties but better against righties to make up for it. Defensively he grades out well in right and very poorly in left which is...weird. Lefty Mashers (Bellinger Compliments): If Bellinger stays, we still need a much much better option than Wisdom as our designated lefty killing bench bat. A few that stands out to me are Ryan Mountcastle (likely but not certain to be non-tendered), Carlos Santana. and Mark Canha. Old Relievers: Kenley Jansen and David Robertson are two of the best most consistent relief pitchers in the world. Kirby Yates and Chris Martin have lesser resumes but are not that far behind. Purely because of their age they will all settle for 1 or maybe 2 year deals, and I'm of the opinion that pitcher risk is only nominally higher for older players. Especially if Bellinger opts out and money is fairly plentiful I'd try and grab two of these four Old-ish SPs: Similar to the RPs above, Nate Eovaldi is a consistently strong SP who is effective, healthy, and playoff battle-tested. He will likely be limited to a 3 year deal purely for age reasons, but his ability and velocity would compliment our rotation nicely. Yusei Kikuchi is very much NOT a model of consistency. But he made some straightforward tweaks after his mid season trade to the Astros and pitched like a full blown ace immediately after the trade. He'll be 34 next year and two months of ace-itude isn't definitive, but he feels like a guy who could get 4/$100 and as early as July have everyone going "that's it!?"

I understand the impulse because the fanbase craps on him constantly but I'm not badmouthing Dansby Swanson. Fried is likely to end up in that 7/$175 like Swanson two years ago or Aaron Nola last year. That's a tier of player where you don't really sweat a second rounder, and we saw that with Jed signing Dansby. And Fried is better than those free agent pitchers. Not by a ton in '24, but he has a track record of pitching at this level while those other guys still have some fear of regression. We already saw it with Flaherty, pitched like a legitimate ace in Detroit then came back down to earth as a Dodger. On the other hand among pitchers with at least 300 innings the last three years Fried is 2nd in ERA behind Michael King (a reliever for half that stretch), 4th in FIP, and 5th in xFIP. I'm a bit worried about his elbow, but performance wise he is a true ace by all but the absolute strictest of definitions.

it wasn't for signing Dansby Swanson, and Fried's likely going to end up in that neighborhood monetarily.

Pretty surprising he was dealing with this given that he played his best ball late in the year. You'd think if he had an injury necessitating surgery there'd be some bread crumbs in his performance.

I think for me the freedom to swap out a young guy who is pitching like ass in contrast to how hard it is to swap out a veteran who is pitching like ass is a big part of the sales pitch. If Assad's running an ERA of 6 to start the season he probably doesn't make it to May before going to the pen or Iowa. If Nick Martinez is on a multi-year deal running an ERA of 6 he's probably pitching through it until July (we can scream "sunk cost" until we're blue in the face but this is how it works)? Famous last words but I'm less worried about injuries forcing us to the 8th/9th/10th SP options, and if they do it feels like you just tip your cap and say it's not your year. And then money/resource wise, I think if Bellinger opts in things are a bit tight this winter, so I'd be reticent to pay for "extras" like a second SP. That said if Bellinger's gone it's easier. The opportunity cost is things like upgrading our primary SP from Eovaldi to Fried, but admittedly it's not hard to fit that second SP in and it becomes a matter of preference.

So i know we got man-handled by pitcher attrition this year, but two veteran starters feels like overkill. Let's say we add that step up from Taillon guy. This our SP depth chart on April 1 of next year to cover the #5 spot plus injuries: Assad Brown Wicks Wesneski Horton Birdsell That is an entire additional rotation. All of these guys last they were on the mound seemed major league ready. All of these guys (pending bad news about Brown's neck) are supposed to be good to go for spring training. 5 of 6 hit the IL last year, with 3 of them being pretty lengthy stays, so I don't want to overstate the reliability. But generally I'd be much more worried about the second FA's performance or the opportunity cost of the resources he would require than I would be about having an 11th starter I feel comfortable with. Exception for Shane Bieber, he's impact-y enough and his 2025 innings number questionable enough that I'd be down. And of course the calculus changes a good bit if we are dealing young pitching to address other openings.

Max Fried is my favorite of the big money pitchers by a pretty decent margin. His elbow needs to be looked at thoroughly (two forearm related IL stints the last two years), but he's pretty fantastic all around and my only objection to giving him Aaron Nola money is general fear of long term deals to pitchers. I also like that Eovaldi got name checked, as I've had him on my list for a while. I actually wanted him instead of Taillon but that pesky qualifying offer kept that from happening two years ago. I don't see as much logic in the Buehler/Martinez tier. The team does not seem likely to be hurting for innings unless they trade multiple young startoptions. I don't think expect they need two SPs. And I'd be pretty shocked and upset with like Walker Buehler as our top SP option. That does not feel like it reflects where this roster is currently at all.

Ah, I fat fingered Moises' innings and got 565. Still Schwarber was at 574 (you didn't count MLB innings) so the broader point still stands that they're in largely the same position. The knee injury put a sudden and definitive end to Schwarber the catcher but their situations and their reputations are/were pretty similar.

Kyle Schwarber caught more innings in 2015 (the last season before his gruesome knee injury) than Ballesteros did here in 2024 🙃

I like these a lot. My top priorities on the position player side this winter are 1. Catcher 2. Lefty masher who fits somewhere into the 1B/DH/OF mix 3. A quality offensively minded backup infielder, ideally a lefty Yandy Diaz is damn near the platonic ideal of that lefty masher. Among guys with at least 400 PAs against lefties the last 3 years he's 3rd in wRC+. I guess perfect world he's an outfielder so Suzuki can stay out of the field as much as possible, but that's nitpicking. Lowe's similar on that #3 role. Offensively exactly what I'm looking for. Defensively I wish he could at least dabble at 3b. If we don't want to roster Mastrobuoni or Madrigal, and I don't think we do, the backup there is...Busch? Sliding Nico over there for the first time in several years? I'm comfortable with Shaw getting run at 3B if Paredes were to get hurt, but I don't love any of the guys who would cover the position for just a day or three.

Patrick Mooney of all people wrote an article of major substance?! https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5857550/2024/10/21/cubs-free-agents

I think it's more likely his contract starts with a 6 than it does with a 4. Ohtani "only" got ~$450M in real dollars, but given the wacky deferrals were his idea he clearly valued that structure more than an accountant would. He also was dead set on LAD from the start and by all indications left some money on the table. Soto is 4.5 years younger, seems intent on maxing contract value, and doesn't have any complications in terms of health or 6 man rotations or anything like that. Also teams last winter were able to look ahead to Soto this winter. There's not another FA in this stratosphere coming coming for a long time unless *maybe* Vlad Jr. has a sufficiently monstrous 2025.

It's clear this conversation is not going anywhere, so I'll just distill my thoughts into one last post: - It is clear via both the team's actions and words (such as your quotes) that our standard assumption for payroll in any given year should be a little below the CBT line - The costs of exceeding the CBT, even the repeater penalties, are fairly piddling unless you do so by 10's of millions of dollars. Particularly for a GM like Jed who tries very hard to avoid QO free agents regardless - It was clear immediately after the Bellinger signing that the team was right on the edge of the CBT. The team made very little effort to dip back under from there, despite opportunity to do so My point is less "the team will exceed the Luxury Tax this year" but instead because of those three points above my POV is "the team's plans are largely unchanged from what they would have been if they had narrowly avoided thr Luxury Tax."