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Bertz

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Everything posted by Bertz

  1. Bertz
    I was definitely disappointed in that comment as well. That said unless/until Bellinger's gone the two weakest full time positions on the roster are Amaya at catcher and Assad at 5th starter. Given the lack of high end talent seemingly available at catcher, if you are aggressively chasing improvement it almost logically has to be in the rotation.
  2. Bertz
    The question is how much this is the market and how much this is the "playing the next two years in a AAA park" tax. It's certainly some of both.
  3. Bertz
    We knew the A's were going to need to pay a premium to get people to Sacramento but wowza
  4. Bertz
    I wouldn't read too much into the specific names Levine chose. He likely heard "three top prospects" and then listed off three of the Cubs' top prospects. If the conversations are as nascent as he says there wouldn't be that much clarity around names. I generally hold Shaw a level above the other Iowa bats and Brown a level above the other arms. I think 3 "top prospects" is totally fair for Crochet, but Shaw or Brown getting included definitely impacts the third piece. Like e.g. Caissie, Assad, and Triantos? Cool bag him up. Want to swap in Shaw for Caissie? Triantos now becomes Cristian Hernandez or Johnny Long.
  5. Bertz
    That's what the reporting sounds like. I feel like he fits their roster either way, but it sounds like he's their backup plan for Soto specifically. I'd assume because they really want Bregman or Adames at 3B and can't do one of them AND Soto AND Bellinger.
  6. Bertz
    Not enough meat here to be it's own topic, but a few things stood out: - After signing Boyd, the team is not necessarily going to add another starter. They are looking to improve, and further improving the rotation is a logical place to do it, but another SP is not written in pen on the shopping list in part because of the quality depth in place - The team is "aggressively" trying to improve, and with financial realities that probably comes via trade. Not a lot of sense of what it looks like exactly, as to paraphrase "Who the hell saw the Michael Busch and Isaac Paredes trades coming?" - The way they talk it feels like Bellinger's almost certainly gone, and it won't necessarily be to the Yankees but it feels pretty likely to be to the Yankees
  7. Bertz
    Think less about Goldschmidt specifically and more about being able to shop in the $15M aisle instead of the $5M one.
  8. Bertz
    There's very little Madrigal in Triantos. Madrigal is a unicorn in both good ways and bad, Triantos is not a common archetype, but he's not really extreme at anything. I think Amed Rosario is a good comp for a "disappointing but still a quality major leaguer" type of outcome for Triantos. James seems unlikely to even be allowed the attempt to fake it at shortstop like Rosario has, but he's also going to rack up a lot more steals. Would still end up in that same ~1.5 WAR range.
  9. Bertz
    One fun thing about this hypothetical is that even though Nico only makes $11M, dealing him AND getting a league minimum SP suddenly gives you budget breathing room to comfortably tick all the other items off the offseason to-do list. Like I don't know if this specifically would work because I don't know that Goldy would accept the reduced role. But something like this the rest of the way forward: - Paul Goldschmidt 1/$15M - Clay Holmes 2/$24M - Danny Jansen 2/$16M - Josh Rojas 1/$5M Or if you'd prefer, still go cheap on the lefty masher but add two separate RPs in the ~$10M range. This feels much cleaner than the path forward after a Bellinger trade if it's truly on the table.
  10. Bertz
    I'm not an authority, but I wrote up Miller and Woo about a month ago Both are very very fun arms. I like Miller more than Woo, but Woo has a lot of big fans too (I know Eno Sarris for instance lusts after him quite a bit).
  11. Bertz
    I am generally anti trading Nico. That said I do think the Mariners are the one team where you can form a deal that makes sense. For instance I wrote this up a few weeks ago
  12. Bertz
    Because of the logical fit, a Mariners/Cubs swap of infielders for starting pitching has been oft discussed in the blog-o-sphere. Turns out it has been discussed in real life as well. No specific names are mentioned from Seattle's side, but it's hard to imagine someone other than one of their young starting pitchers being Jed's target. One potential wrinkle is that the Mariners seem to prefer addressing first and third base rather than the middle infield. Would Hoerner move over to third base? Or is Hoerner uniquely talented enough that they would move someone else internally over to the hot corner to accommodate him? View full rumor
  13. Bertz
    More information about "Cubs and Mariners Have Discussed Nico Hoerner Trade"
    Because of the logical fit, a Mariners/Cubs swap of infielders for starting pitching has been oft discussed in the blog-o-sphere. Turns out it has been discussed in real life as well. No specific names are mentioned from Seattle's side, but it's hard to imagine someone other than one of their young starting pitchers being Jed's target. One potential wrinkle is that the Mariners seem to prefer addressing first and third base rather than the middle infield. Would Hoerner move over to third base? Or is Hoerner uniquely talented enough that they would move someone else internally over to the hot corner to accommodate him?
  14. Bertz
    It's two injuries to the same part of his body, and that elbow has now totally been replaced. Acting like he's Jacob deGrom with a medical chart a mile long is exactly what I was referring to.
  15. Bertz
    Ah, so we're holding him responsible for Covid too?
  16. Bertz
    Fans definitely are not comfortable doing anything beyond just averaging yearly MLB innings when thinking about injury risk. Saw it with Glasnow discussions last year, Boyd this year. If you have the audacity to have a mid year arm surgery that impacts two different seasons you get shat on way more than cleanly missing a single calendar year.
  17. Bertz
    Based on Fangraphs current depth charts, the Cubs have the #18 rotation in baseball right now. It's not quite as bad as that sounds, there are 6 teams ahead of them by less than a win. But still it's an average to below average rotation right now, with youth you can hope on for more but not count on. If you swap Assad and Kilian's 167 innings and 1.3 WAR for Crochet's 170 innings and 4.9 WAR, the Cubs jump all the way to #4, a couple tenths of a win behind the Braves.
  18. Bertz
    I wouldn't consider either to be a rumor, but both Kiley McDaniel and Jim Bowden wrote up "Trades I'd make" type columns today and sent Cody to the Astros. I guess that fit from the Astros perspective is more attractive than I've been giving it credit for.
  19. Bertz
    Honestly I think the Boyd signing makes it very easy to trade a starter without worrying about backfill. Like I this is the SP depth chart if we acquire a new guy: MLB SP - Steele, Shota, New Guy, Taillon, Boyd MLB LRP - Assad Iowa SP - Wicks, Brown, Horton, Birdsell, Noland And this assumes the door is shut on Wesneski and Kilian starting. Like no such thing as too much pitching, but I think we can comfortably move one young arm this winter. And I wouldn't be comfortable doing it but it wouldn't be totally reckless to consider moving a second in the right circumstances.
  20. Bertz
    I've generally been under the assumption that any SP trade this winter is going to be a Panera style "You Pick 2" where the other team gets one of the Iowa bats and one of the Iowa/pre-arb arms. There are limitations, like I'm not giving up Shaw or Brown (my favorite bat and arm respectively) in a Jesus Luzardo trade, but that's my rough mental model. For Crochet? No limits from me. I'd try and push towards three slightly lesser pieces, e.g. Alcantara/Caissie/Assad instead of Shaw/Brown. But ultimately this feels like an opportunity to *really* move the needle, and at a time where the farm is deep enough to take the hit mostly in stride. Two years of ace level production for $10-15M total at a time where patroll is a bit inflexible is probably only behind a Soto signing as potential impact moves likely to be available over the next 24 months.
  21. Bertz
    Eric Longenhagen, who lives in AZ and thus has a very up to date scouting report based on Moises' time in the AFL, recently said this I still think something in the Mitch Garver mold makes sense. He gets maybe one dedicated guy in the rotation that he catches every time, and gets some assorted time after late inning roster moves, but is primarily a 1B/DH.
  22. Bertz
    This is very much blunt and imperfect, but the league average FIP 1st time through the order for SPs was 3.92 this year. Overall FIP for SPs was 4.15. About a quarter of a run. Crochet's FIP 1st time through the order from July onward was 3.10. So even if we add on that typical penalty he's a fairly elite SP (Max Fried had a 3.33 FIP this year for instance). Hell even if we double it he's in line with Corbin Burnes, Tanner Bibee, and Bryce Miller in the 3.50s.
  23. Bertz
    I think the answer is pretty clearly that Assad either becomes trade bait or sees his role reduced. If Jed had signed some $5-8M arm like Michael Lorenzen or Martin Perez I think you could see some sort of competition. But at $14M the team clearly likes Boyd and he is getting a rotation slot and likely a decent amount of leash. Assad has been a valuable member of the club the last few years and seems like a good dude. But there have been glaring markers for regression the entire time. I know Trueblood found some interesting stuff around him using the fat part of the field on fly balls, but that feels very much "here's what happened" vs. "this is a skill." We should assume Assad's ERA should more or less match his peripherals going forward. And while in '23 his peripherals said "league average SP" last year they slid and were paired with a drop in velo. Javier is/was the weakest member of the team slated to get full time play, and Jed presumably replacing him with Boyd is a sign of the aggressiveness we've been begging him to show more of.
  24. Bertz
    The teams are an absolute perfect match on paper. Acquiring an impact talent on a $3M salary is Jed's dream move, while the Sox would clearly like to be able to show progress this year with near MLB ready talent. TBD if the Sox are willing to suffer the PR or Jed is willing to win a likely fierce bidding war, but the deal makes all kinds of sense.
  25. Bertz
    Oops, slow on the draw, please delete
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