Bertz
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Everything posted by Bertz
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None of us wanted him back but likely a good sign that part of the market is about to start moving
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Boyd was *very* good last year in limited time. And it came with some pitch design changes so it would seem likely to be at least mostly permanent. So the glass half full is this is the lesser of two SP adds, and this replaces Assad with someone a lot better on a per inning basis. That both A) improves the MLB team and B) frees up a young SP to trade. Also since Boyd's bugaboo is durability not talent, it should provide opportunities for Brown/Horton to get some starts. The glass half empty is that Jed made the singular SP add this winter a speculative upside play. He spent less on it than we expected, but not by a ton so it doesn't suddenly open up a significant number of new avenues to fill other holes.
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Potential Landing Spots For A Cody Bellinger Trade
Bertz replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Royals have a pretty robust bullpen.... -
They don't have to cut anyone until the deal is official but Kilian or Zastryzny would be the heavy favorites.
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You highlighted Wesneski's stellar September, he was doing that in stints of two innings a pop. I would love to see Wesneski keep that going as the team's long man. Not in the "4 innings of low leverage work every week and a half when a starter gets blown out" way but in the way David Ross used Keegan Thompson at his apex. 2-3 innings twice a week on a fairly regular cadence to keep sharp. And if Boyd is indeed one of two SP additions, I'd still rather see Wesneski in long relief than Assad. Javier could be trade bait if he's not used directly to acquire that additional SP.
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It's really not https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/11/2024-25-top-50-mlb-free-agents-with-predictions.html And I'm sorry but being okay with a deal at $12M per and wanting the GM fired at $14.5 is very silly. None of the data we work with is even close to being precise enough to get worked up over that amount.
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Like there's no situation where your opinion on a move should flip like this Over $2-3M AAV
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This is very silly, you see why this is silly, right?
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Potential Landing Spots For A Cody Bellinger Trade
Bertz replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
I'm trying to decide if the Boyd deal makes a Bellinger trade where you don't save a ton of money make more sense or less sense. For instance, it's not one of the three you highlighted, but MLBTR suggested Bellinger for Pressly. In that scenario you have the bullpen more or less sorted and you've saved $12M. Is needing to address the position player side and an additional SP with ~$45M to play with a better position than we're in right now? I think so, at least marginally? -
That's exactly what it is. And then mutual options/buyouts work the same in the opposite direction to let teams get the benefit of a little TVM before paying out.
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At the deadline Jed traded for Isaac Paredes and reportedly offered multiple top 100 prospects to try and add Logan O'Hoppe as well. I think we can be clear eyed that Jed won't be as aggressive as we like while also not pretending like he's going to have his foot so far off the pedal that this was the big move of the winter.
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The team is ~$40M under the cap right now. Let's assume for the sake of being conservative the plan is to only spend $30M more this offseason to leave deadline money and wiggle room for injuries/bonuses. If you're paying retail in FA, the remaining items on the to do list cost: Backup Catcher - $6-8M Backup IF - $4-5M RHH Bat - $5M Closer - $10-12M So that's that $30M right there without even considering a second SP. So one of the following must be true: - The team is planning to address one or more items in trade to provide $ relief - The team is planning to skimp on or maybe even forego one or two of these items - There is more money available than we think, whether because a Bellinger trade is coming down the pipe or simply because payroll is actually north of the LT Gun to my head, they add a SP in arb making something in the $5-10M range, and then skimp on one of those lower cost items. For example add Jesus Luzardo at $6M and go internally with Canario as your lefty masher.
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So by no means is he Tom Glavine, but I do think we're probably overstating his fragility. Through 2020 he was reasonably healthy. Then in 2021 he had a flexor tendon surgery which bled into his 22 as well. Then in 23 he had TJ surgery which bled into his 24. So yeah, 4 years in a row of low innings, but all tied to that balky elbow which is presumably fixed now.
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- matthew boyd
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Definitely. I think packaging one of the young Iowa bats and one of the pre-arb arms can get you most of the way to anyone realistically available in trade. If you did something like Alcantara and Assad for Jesus Luzardo you've got some real risk in the rotation but hella talent and 4-5 legitimate SP options just a phone call away at Iowa.
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Piqued*
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Yeah I think Boyd would be very ripe for a piggyback with like Brown or Wesneski. I'd be really down for a situation like this if we had a strong top 3. Someone else in the Steel/Shota tier and then thunder dome in the 4/5 spots. If Taillon’s still our #3 that idea doesn't have as much luster.
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I would also guess that there's a good chance a condition of netting Sasaki is running a 6 man rotation (or something creative that treats him like he's in one). Even if you KNOW you're getting Sasaki you want 5 other SPs to pair with him.
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You have to be logged in to see the quoted tweet but basically a short thread from a Mets fan about Frankie Montas and how teams are more and more looking at pitchers as their arsenals instead of as their past performance. Feels just as relevant to Boyd as Montas
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I'll say going with a guy who is good on a rate basis but you're worried about volume makes the second SP feel pretty inevitable. I'd be tugging my collar a lot more if I'd woken up to like a Kyle Gibson or Lance Lynn signing.
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Glad your article about platoon splits at Wrigley is linked here because it popped into my head as I was reading about him and I wanted to revisit it. Like you have up top, if this is the lesser of two SPs being added this winter this is a fun little signing. I expect pretty strong results on a per inning basis, but not a lot of innings. I think with the cadre of young arms the Cubs have, that's the perfect tradeoff to have from a back-end arm. Another nice thing about Boyd is unlike Drew Smyly he actually has proper platoon splits, so if he does back up performance wise and shifts into that vacated long relief role it feels a lot easier to leverage him.
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I'd presume we're trading for a SP now, and Boyd is going to slot in as the #2 guy from this winter. If not, woof obviously, but if so this is pretty fun. He got very successfully pitch labbed last year by Cleveland. Still in SSS which is why he didn't get paid more but he might be quite good. I'd imagine he functions as a sort of deluxe Smyly. I'm sure as part of signing he got assurances on a rotation spot, but I doubt he has an iron grip on it. Also with his durability questions ultimately ending up in the bullpen is very possible.
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Rosenthal: Cubs want to trade Bellinger
Bertz replied to Transmogrified Tiger's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Reading this has me wondering about Cody Bellinger for a bad contract AND another good player. For instance Cody Bellinger for Nick Castellanos, Jose Alvarado, and money to cover Castellanos' 2026 salary? Or Cody Bellinger for Jordan Montgomery and one of AZ's late inning arms (Ryan Thompson)? You're not freeing up money, but you're knocking a couple other items off the to-do list while keeping salary flat. -
Hopefully he has one of those Erick Fedde type journeys and comes back in two years the mid rotation starter we always hoped for.
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Michael Busch's 2023-2024 trajectory should be your median expectation for any big time hitting prospect at this point. - Really rough first month as you arrive in MLB - Really good month as you figure out how pitchers are attacking you and adjust - Another deep slump as pitchers adjust back - Figure out pitchers' round 2 gameplan, reach equilibrium and be roughly who you are with normal ebbs and flows going forward I think Matt Shaw is going to be significantly better offensively than Nico Hoerner in time. Something like a 120 wRC+. However in the early going he's going to have some real struggles as he adjusts to MLB. He's also not nearly the baserunner or defender Nico is. If you've got a plan where you deal Nico away and net a major upgrade elsewhere, fine let's run Shaw out there as the everyday 2B. But there is very little chance he's just straight up better than Hoerner in 2025.
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Offensively? It's probably close. Holistically? It's probably not.
