chopsx9
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Everything posted by chopsx9
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Well I have Bryant in Fantasy 🙁
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Do it! My last draft pick in my keeper league.
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In fairness, in 1987, Dawson lead the league HR, Moreland and Durham had 27, Sutcliffe lead the league in wins and they only managed 76 wins.
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Bellinger is at least as good as last year Hoerner, Steele take a step back Suzuki rakes. Happ battles injuries all year Cade Horton becomes a factor for the big team B Davis re-establishes himself. Morel manages 3b People are sleeping on the Pirates
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So likely 1/3 of the starting 9.
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Hee-Sop Choi was the guy I figured was absolutely can't miss.
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Brendan Harris ? Louis Montanez, Brooks Kieshwhatever, Hanks Boy, Brett Jackson, Gary Scott, Hee Sop Choi...wait... let me shift through another $1000 of worthless RC cards from back in the day for some more names. Going back a little deeper - for some reason I always remember a write up in some mag that went something along the lines of "It's true the Cubs don't have very many legitimate prospects but when you have one as promising as Kevin Roberson it doesn't matter." LMFAO
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Certainly possible - I did say 4 WAR not 4+ - so I'm thinking 3.8 - 4.2ish - the main point is if he has the same WAR stretched over 150+ games then his numbers have likely dropped a bit - maybe that lends more weight to the batted ball concerns if they remain the same BUT then you have an additional year of production. I think he's over 5 for the year anyway so I think it will be less murky.
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He had a 4+ war in 130 games. My guess would be if he has a 4 win season in 150+ games he stays put for one more season. He's 29 next year with another opt out; he's got lots of time. I'm on record here as saying I believe he's being undervalued due to 3 injury induced lost seasons and single season of questionable hit rates fueled, at least in part, by a specific change in 2 strike approach. I believe when its all said done signing him long term will have been the play. I'm not saying the Cubs should have taken whatever contract Boras was slinging - no idea what that was. I just believe Bellinger will be a very productive player and the Cubs should jump at the opportunity presented by a league exercising an over abundance of caution. I know there are other differing assessments but I'm going down with the ship.
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Fire it Up!!
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He was linked to the Mets among other teams if it wasn't record setting it was going to be near enough to not make a difference.
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No other team was going to pay him a lot of money?
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I heet nothink!
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Hence why that sentence is tacked on after the first one.
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Springer is 34 this year and probably played CF longer than he should have and I'd have to think a continued decline is more likely than a bounce back - not impossible but I don't think you can expect it - though maybe he DHs more this year. Most of the BJ's OF WAR is defensive driven. They were desperate for offense last year. Varsho was a black hole last year - KK was a pleasant surprise but hardly a force and what are the chances he repeats. Bellinger would be a fit because he'd provide offense which they are desperately looking for. He's also a bit of name so he'd be a bit of a PR win in the face of losing out on Ohtani, who they really thought they had a shot at.
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Speak for yourself 🤠
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Sounds like a character from a James Bond movie.
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So if you don't include Bellinger's 2 seasons where he was injured and played in about half the games his 4 season average is 4.3 vs Heyward's 4.7 . If you extend that to a 5 year stretch Bellinger's slightly ahead although Heyward probably gets the nod as he's lite a few games. The significance of the offensive number is that it is unadjusted and it's already higher than Heyward's. Bellinger's highs were/are also much higher than Heyward's and he also has more positional flexibility. You want to state Heyward's season was better - okay - I just don't think " Heyward was a significantly better baseball player going into that offseason than Bellinger" bears out.
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Was he? Heyward had 5.6 fWar - if we equalize the games played Bellinger comes out at 4.85 - is that significantly better? Fangraphs says it isn't. In my mind the more important fact is - that according to Fangraphs - Bellinger had a much better offensive season even when you don't adjust for the number of games played - which I believe - is a bigger need the way cubs are currently constructed.
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Let's shoot for Kevin Orie at least.
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I mean...we're not even sure he can hit RHH at this point. You throw him out there an let him show what he can do. Presumably he'll be near the team lead in ABs in spring training.
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Absolutely not putting words in your mouth. " that you seem to want the the batted ball data to be the be all and end all" is what I typed which is much less making proclamations on someone else's behalf than your "You want so badly for him just to be great that you've allowed that to be all you can see." I at least qualified my statement. Yes I realize 5.5 WAR would be higher than this year - that's my figure - partly for effect - because I think he will be better. Go hard or go home. As to him achieving that level of WAR if his batted ball data returns to previous data is kind of my point. I think the batted ball data is the outlier not the results. You've already stated - and please correct me if in I am wrong - that there are no indications he can return to his previous BBD and achieve similar results. I don't believe one years worth of data is a rock solid indicator of that - especially when coupled with actual typical results. Again...we'll see.
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Well guess part of my response would be that you seem to want the the batted ball data to be the be all and end all and that is all you are seeing. In any case if Bellinger finishes the year with 2.7 WAR for a full 2024 I will quote this post and tip my hat...should he finish with 5.5 however....
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David Bote's career HHR rate is higher than Freddie Freeman's it just didn't/doesn't translate into results in the majors. Anybody clamoring for Bote's services? I've read the Petriello article - Bellinger's 2 strike approach - logically - is going to drag down his HHR - BUT he's not swinging like that on every pitch. Batters who strike out a lot can have misleading rates - see good ol' Matt Chapman at #2 in 2023 - because the calculation only triggers when contact is made. Conversely players who make a lot of contact can also have misleading rates. You certainly think Freeman would have higher rates - he was 109th last year behind such luminaries as DJ LeMahieu, Andy Ibanez and Mike Yastrzemski. Interestingly Freeman makes a pretty decent amount of contact unlike Matt (hopefully never a Cub) Chapman. I'll believe teams really care - which doesn't mean they should - when Bellinger is the last Boras Client standing.
