squally1313
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Everything posted by squally1313
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Can also throw ‘2 strikeouts in 4 innings’ in the ‘things I don’t like’ category
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Think the actual problem here is going to be the pitching
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Tucker oppo off a lefty huh
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I mean, I guess if I'm feeling generous to the Ian Happ haters, not sure why, he's had 1100 more PAs than any other player in a Cub uniform from 2018 through today, during which time they've won exactly zero playoff games. Over his career, which is basically that stretch plus 2017, he's hit in the 3 spot in the lineup more than anywhere else. It's not exactly logical (some would say dumb) to be mad at Ian Happ for the organization not putting better hitters in the lineup for what is coming up on an 8 year stretch. Ian Happ, as a 20 fWAR guy over essentially 7.5-8 seasons is plenty valuable, he's made like $85m in his career so he's not overpaid, etc. But he probably shouldn't be the best player in your offense over that type of stretch, and he has been (Hoerner actually just passed him in total fWAR from 2018 on, in significantly fewer games, because Nico Hoerner rocks, but that's obviously heavily defensively driven). Basically, people are probably right to be frustrated with the total team output since Happ has been here, and Happ is overwhelmingly the guy they're likely to have seen while watching said frustrating team.
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He had like a .200 BABIP for June and July. The Cubs have the fourth best record in baseball and are a mathematical certainty to make the playoffs. Ian Happ playing like 2002 Barry Bonds for two months wasn't going to make up the gap between them and the Brewers. The nice thing about this process vs results thing is that, yes, his results individually weren't up to his standard, but the team results were, on the whole, fine. The data says his statistics going forward should be better than his results thus far, which is encouraging because September/October baseball is certainly a results driven thing.
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xwOBA is designed to be a predictive statistic, why are you consistently so dense about this
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To avoid some dumb semantic thing because you keep phrasing it that way, no one is claiming that Ian Happ has had bad luck every single day for 5 months. The BABIP swings, to use a maybe simpler example, show that (.311, .348, .200, .196, .303 per month). They're claiming that on the whole his results have not been as good as you would expect based on a vast sample size of hitters who have hit the ball (and struck out, and walked, etc etc) like he has this year. The results are the results, no one is saying they should like, award him extra batting average points or something. But there's really nothing in the overall data set that says he's lost a step as a hitter, and we should expect diminished production going forward.
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Do you understand that I was calling you out for doing the exact same thing you accuse me of doing all the time? Or are we, in your mind, allowed to laugh at people using advanced statistics but not at people doing meatball takes.
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I'm going to laugh at someone's post, write opinion statements but make them sound like facts, and then say that I don't want to talk about it any further. Solid contributions.
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Awful team manages to win a baseball game
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Dansby 101 wRC, Happ 112
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Probably the series win over the team with the best record in baseball or the over 500 west coast road trip they just did.
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I think everyone wants their team to be playing elite baseball when it matters. I agree the cubs haven’t in a couple months. But the brewers doing it in July/August is also not indicative of them doing it in October. Teams play above and below their true talent level over the course of a six month season. Throwing out their very good stretch because it isn’t historically sustainable while taking their play since then as gospel isn’t a fair way to evaluate the team. The team killed it offensively for two months, and then…fill in your own adjectives since then about the offense, but as frustrating as it was, they played at an 85 win pace. Is it the 2016 cubs? No. Is it decidedly worse than the rest of their competition this year? Also very much no. They’ve punched their ticket to have a shot in October, baseball playoffs are a dumb crapshoot and they will probably lose because every team will probably lose. It’s still a 90+ win team.
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This is a team that the pessimistic fans thought was a mid 80s win team, the optimistic fans thought they would get close to 90. No one came in here thinking this was some World Series or bust juggernaut. It’s August 31 and if we play 500 ball we clear 90 wins and we’re a mathematical certainty to make the playoffs. Being mad that we’re not playing as well as the stretch of play that you don’t think we’re as good as is dumb. cherry picking a specific date and not like, the fact that we’re 8-6 in a stretch we played the best team in baseball and then went on a west coast trip (93 win pace) is bad faith. It’s a playoff baseball team.
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Cubs determining whether they go 5-4 or 6-3 on their west coast road trip but it doesn’t really matter because they’re terrible. what do you guys think the other contending teams are doing?
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Think we’re good here
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The brewers had a 7 game home stand against two teams out of playoff contention and under .500 and went 3-4
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6-3 as the low end for a 9 game west coast road trip is objectively unrealistic.
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nice. 105 mph, .610 xBA. cool cool cool
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.970 xBA on the double play lineout
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unreal
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Owen Caissie well struck balls absolutely sound different/awesome, but for all the consternation about him, currently rocking a .615 OPS and 36% K rate.
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well the division just got tougher
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7 hits (1 double, 2 HRs) in basically 5 innings against a very good pitcher
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The Brewers are losing 6-4 and have never led in the game today, after a game last night when they went down one run in the 6th inning and could only manage one run the rest of the game (after they gave up another run), for what it's worth
