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squally1313

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Everything posted by squally1313

  1. squally1313
    Matt Boyd is a significantly better pitcher. His results have soured a little bit, and I’ve been more worried than most about him hitting the walls, but the need around here have assured me the underlying stuff all looks fine, which is enough for me. Limit his pitches the next couple weeks, give him an extra day or two, and then give him the ball for one of the three games.
  2. squally1313
    They’re going to try and catch lightning in a bottle on a pitcher who can go more than one inning getting hot. Might blow up once or twice before the end of the year but highly unlikely it will have any actual impact.
  3. squally1313
    We probably shouldn’t base decisions on four start sample sizes
  4. squally1313
    If we get no progress does Tucker play through this type of injury in October?
  5. squally1313
    The Pirates have had 26 different players take a PA for them this year. Only one of them has a wRC over 100. The Cubs have 10.
  6. squally1313
    The Padres don't have any LH starting pitchers, which helps. The numbers in September, team wise, show improvement in actual outcomes relative to July/August but a little bit of a regression in terms of the expected metrics. 8th in total offensive fWAR (Phillies comfortably first, Dodgers 6th, Brewers 7th, Padres 16th), first in walk rate, 19th in K rate, 12th in wOBA, 13th in xwOBA, 8th in baserunning, second in defense. Drilling down, Busch, PCA, and Shaw have been bad in every measure, expected metrics still love Seiya, Dansby is playing to his career line, Kelly and Castro are fine but getting a little lucky. Happ and Hoerner have been incredible, as mentioned.
  7. squally1313
    Ashcroft has been pretty solid since coming up after an uninspiring start to the year in AAA. 2.47 ERA, 3.65 xFIP. And then Skenes tomorrow, and a 2.81 ERA in 25 innings in Oviedo on Wednesday. The offense is bad, 41 home runs in 53 second half games is the lowest in baseball, but unfortunately seeing some good pitching again (and then Greene and Lodolo to start the Reds series). Playoff odds have moved to 100% even though it's not officially clinched yet. Will be interesting to see how the Dodgers/Padres play out if the Dodgers stumble a bit....they've both struggled enough that the Phillies and Brewers are basically locked into a bye, assuming we take care of business and lock in the 4th spot, it'll be interesting to see if those teams go all out down the stretch to get the 3 seed instead of the 5 seed.
  8. squally1313
    When
  9. squally1313
    118 wRC
  10. squally1313
    The hitters are fine, the pitching is bad
  11. squally1313
    We are 84-64. If that is C+ what were you expecting
  12. squally1313
    It’s a 100 point BABIP difference. K and walk rate are the same or better at home, so it’s not like he’s seeing the ball worse. Think they’re trying to give him a little bit of a break, similar to what they’ve done with Tucker and PCA, which is fine, pretty low leverage games, but no reason to think he’s uniquely bad at wrigley
  13. squally1313
    Unless they’re for some reason very impressed with Castro out in center, I think this basically means the end of the PCA rest/reset period. Obviously the offensive performance isn’t there yet, but still plenty of ways for him to add value beyond that. Just need to recognize that he’s probably the worst hitter in the lineup at the moment and slot him accordingly.
  14. squally1313
    I have a dumb question. The season ends today, dodgers three seed, us four seed, us with a better record. We play the dodgers in the NLCS…who gets home field?
  15. squally1313
    So the padres might be bad
  16. squally1313
    Eh. The Brewers stayed hot for 6 weeks and it was near unprecedented in 100whatever years of baseball. Being hot on 9/12 does not mean being hot on 10/3.
  17. squally1313
    yeah that's pretty discouraging on Tucker
  18. squally1313
    Ballesteros day
  19. squally1313
    What PCA did in the first half is insane, but whatever award you want to assign to the guy who just went out and stayed at his borderline elite skill level week after week, it's definitely him. Monthly wRC never dipped below 99, and after topping out at 110 (in June), he's at 165 in September, which is giving him 121 for the second half, which is insane for an elite defensive middle infielder.
  20. squally1313
    Bertz explained better than I could. I asked the question too. Ultimately I'm not worried about it, we're going to need to go win 4 coinflips to win it all. The ROS projections don't like them, for playing time purposes and because they might not think they're as good of a team. Lining up even a regressed version of their YTD xwOBA to what the ROS Depth Chart numbers show has me thinking they are undervaluing them a little bit, but....it's not going to matter much over a 3 game sample size.
  21. squally1313
    So if I'm reading you correctly: the pitching is bad because the full year stats say that they've been bad, and we should ignore the recent stretch when they were good because they had a SOS that was at least softer than how they started the year (not sure how to compare to other teams) the offense is bad because the recent stretch in which they were bad, and we should ignore the full year stats because when they were good against the good part of the schedule that doesn't count Close?
  22. squally1313
    Apples to apples on the 22nd in xFIP, Cubs are fourth in xwOBA, 3rd in baserunning, 2nd in defense YTD. 7th in xFIP in the second half if you want to line up with the diminished offensive production in the second half. We should at least be consistent with sample sizes.
  23. squally1313
    But it doesn’t necessarily answer the question on why the Mets have a higher WS % than us, right? Which, from my quick viewpoint, seems to come from a very low ROS winning percentage (.511 for the cubs vs .588 for the Mets), which, I assume, means whatever projection system is driving that is currently pretty down on the cubs. I wouldn’t put a lot of stock into it, there’s a bunch of different options you can use for that input and I think the default one has been previously discussed as bad, but think it is impacting the final percentages a little bit.
  24. squally1313
    Yeah it’s actually shaping up to be a fun last couple weeks of the season in terms of teams going for a playoff spot or at least positioning. Feel like it looked pretty boring a few weeks ago. I would very much like to be excluded from the party.
  25. squally1313
    Without doing a year by year comparison, that seems to be heavily driven by his catching defense. Santana played catcher from 2010-2014 and through those years FG had him at 7 wins and BR had him at 17. I know at least FG has overhauled their catching metrics lately and it's certainly more an art than a science, but they have him as like horrifically bad defensively (his 2011 season is the 6th worst defensive season of this century per FG, which is shocking considering the bonus catchers typically get).
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