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squally1313

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Everything posted by squally1313

  1. squally1313
    Man, what a classic game thread. This new PSD blood really injected some old school doom and gloom around here to a generally apathetic crowd. We lost by one to a very good pitcher and put two balls off the top of the wall. The guy we traded for hasn't even gotten to Chicago yet. The next three starters have given up 45 home runs in a combined 217 innings. Go win some baseball games.
  2. squally1313
    Put Madrigal in the Bednar trade.
  3. squally1313
    It's baseball, so anything can happen, but would be really nice to make a statement in this series. The Brewers are in Washington and then host the Pirates, and the Reds host the Pirates after coming to Wrigley. I'm not going to try and dwell on the wildcard too much just yet because there's too many teams for my small brain and also I think this division is very gettable. But....the Brewers are about to go through the same schedule stretch we just came out of (Nationals, Pirates, Rockies, White Sox). Obviously need to take advantage but we got to stay afloat this week before the schedule drops off again (NYM, Tor, CWS, KC, Det, Pitt).
  4. squally1313
    Out of curiosity, who are the ‘many’ cub prospects over the last ‘few’ seasons who struggled and then had a significant breakout? Have any of them translated that into major league success?
  5. squally1313
    We’re like 36 hours from the trade deadline. If the names existed, we’d know about them. ‘Serviceable, controllable, major league talent on teams with no intention of competing any time soon’ is not a long list.
  6. squally1313
    double post
  7. squally1313
    Setting aside that bednar is extremely controllable, there’s like 6 teams selling right now, and of those 6 teams, a couple of them are very explicitly coming out and saying that they are going to try and be contenders next year. Who are these controllable (non-reliever) assets that teams are willing to give up on?
  8. squally1313
    This is the first I’m hearing about this whole Carter Hawkins: ‘Pitcher Whisperer’ too. He was hired in October 2021. If we’re going to give him/the system credit for Steele, I suppose we’re just ignoring Kilian hitting a wall (he was our top pitching prospect per FG when Hawkins was hired), Wesneski’s clear back step this year, Keegan Thompson breaking entirely, etc. Or are we just churning out Strider’s now.
  9. squally1313
    Also, Kyle isn’t wrong. The multiple(!) strider comparisons are nuts.
  10. squally1313
    We’ve sold the last two years and the only players from those trades who have gotten to the majors are Wesneski, who has contributed a -0.2 fWAR this year, and Madrigal (0.8 fWAR). And this is with everyone generally happy with the returns from those trades. I guess if we nail this hypothetical sell off we can get some dudes who can start to contribute right when this 2024-2026 window closes, yay?
  11. squally1313
    Anyone have a clip of the DP?
  12. squally1313
    Related, I was thinking about how any path to the post-season probably includes Steele continuing to dominate and Stroman at least setting down to his low 3 ERA self, if not back to those first couple months. You get those two back, and all of a sudden you're rolling into a short series with 2 of the top 15ish pitchers in baseball on the mound for a majority of the games in the series. Someone from the Wes/Kyle/Jameson/Smyly becoming a solid third is probably a requirement for getting to October anyways, but that's an enticing rotation in a playoff series.
  13. squally1313
    To indulge this fantasy, PCA becomes significantly more important if you're trying to wring any sort of outfield play out of Soto.
  14. squally1313
    People who hated the manager said his last name a lot?
  15. squally1313
    I would have pulled him before the sixth for the heat, for September, etc. But ‘gassed’ is kinda just how Steele looks all the time. side note: this is fun as hell, maybe we can keep trying and deal with 2025 later?
  16. squally1313
    Yeah I can’t get behind the whole ‘well if they make it, who cares, they’re going to lose’ argument. They probably will! Guess who else probably will? Every other team in baseball. Any team going into playoffs as better than like…4/1 odds is a bad bet. and that’s totally ignoring all the outcomes in between. Apparently no one had fun watching the 2015 season.
  17. squally1313
    I think he absolutely should have a analytical understanding of how the team is going to perform the rest of the year, with some standard deviation bars built in, etc. But I think being 4 games back and being 7 games back come Sunday night changes the math on 'can we make the playoffs' quite a bit. Ohtani is projected to be worth 3 wins the rest of the year, as an extreme example.
  18. squally1313
    If you need any help....
  19. squally1313
    Tauchman has basically been Carlos Santana against righties, which is great. That hypothetical trade lets you move Belli back to CF (where he's very valuable!) at least against lefties, if not just more in general. Obviously moot now, the bigger point being that there are dudes out there who shore up the bottom half of the major league roster in exchange for like, the 19th most valuable outfielder in our system.
  20. squally1313
    I didn't say that exact trade, though it would certainly improve the team if it hastened the departure of Mancini. But the chance to replace Mancini, Mastro, Barnhart (and probably Wisdom) with 100ish wRC hitters at the expense of like...a few Chase Shrumpfs? Yes please.
  21. squally1313
    The Brewers just got Carlos Santana, a league average first baseman, for an 18 year old who wasn't on the Brewers Top 40 list back in December and has had 52 below average ABs in the Complex League since then. Go do those trades.
  22. squally1313
    That's mostly fair. I don't think the potential benefit to 2025 and beyond is worth throwing away the admittedly mediocre chance they have this season. To be clear, I'm definitely like, running a present value of future potential benefits when making that determination. Give me somewhat good baseball now over hopefully very good baseball in the future. But also worth talking about the current state of the system, the plethora of prospects, and the crunch coming. You're not going to find many teams this offseason willing to trade impact MLB talent for minor leaguers. There's only like, 6 of them now. That might change come midseason, but it's not a guarantee, serious roster decisions will have to be made by then, and also that means unless you win free agency in a big way, you're probably looking at a team that's going to end up exactly where we are now.
  23. squally1313
    I don't want to reduce your whole post to this line, but you can't say this and then continue advocating for trading two of our four best players and giving up on the next two months of baseball. The current baseball team is 12-6 in their last 18 games. Not sure what else you're looking for. Go do things to make them more likely to win now, not in 2025.
  24. squally1313
    Two points here: 1. Repeating myself from another thread, but if you give up on the year and trade Bellinger as a .500 team, there's no way it's a good look for us when it comes to trying to sign him in the offseason, as obviously signing him by itself just brings you back to a .500 team. 2. Especially hard pass on being sellers if you can't meaningfully improve the 2024 team. I'll take the 15-20% shot this year over someone's 5th best prospect that might help us in 2025.
  25. squally1313
    Money is obviously the main determining factor, but it's not the end all be all, and the Cubs as a .500 team giving up and trading their best offensive player is a pretty big negative in terms of their sales pitch to Bellinger in the offseason. This isn't a 'these kids make too many damn money' argument....far from it, but it's worth pointing out that Bellinger, due to his early career success, has already made $58m in his career. This isn't a Contreras situation ($22m career going into the last offseason), there's probably some personal preference that's going to impact this decision.
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